Connolly article on pitching

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's posting unrealistic stuff daily, but he admits that he expects the Orioles won't do any of it.  That way, he gets to keep raging against the Orioles, can call them stupid, etc, because they didn't do things he views as smart.  And that's fine, everyone here does that to a degree.

I think growing the arms is fine, if you can do it.  I sometimes cringe at the thought of spending a lot of money in free agency on pitching...though if you do that, you're hopefully in a situation where that arm or two can get you to a World Series.  

An expensive strategy would be signing a guy to a 8/260 million a year deal.  I'd much rather try to get 2 or 3 guys in the system like G-Rod.  But again, I don't think the Orioles can do it.

I don't get why folks think other teams will take all the risks to develop pitching and then trade it to the Orioles for whatever corner outfielders we don't have roster spots for.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's posting unrealistic stuff daily, but he admits that he expects the Orioles won't do any of it.  That way, he gets to keep raging against the Orioles, can call them stupid, etc, because they didn't do things he views as smart.  

Not really but carry on.  It’s never stopped you before.

[webbrick2010]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

It is pretty obvious that when the time is right (and maybe beginning next year), the O’s will have to acquire pitching from outside the organization.   And while I agree 100% with Can_of_corn that this is easier said than done, consider Toronto:

Robbie Ray (23 starts) acquired by trade, resigned as a free agent ($8 mm)

Hyun Jin Ryu (23 starts) signed as free agent (4/$80 mm)

Steven Matz (21 starts) acquired in a trade

Ross Stripling (19 starts) acquired in a trade

Jose Berrios (2021 deadline deal) acquired in a trade.

That’s not a great staff, but it’s a competitive one.   They did that, acquired Springer and Semien, and still have a payroll that is $64 mm below their $182 mm peak (they are at $118 mm this year).    

Now, I know C_of_c and some other will say, “there’s no evidence the Angelos brothers will authorize that kind of spending.”   Well, I believe they will.   I think the whole point of the rebuild was to establish a good young homegrown core that could be built around by adding via free agency and trades at the right time.    But we’ll see.

Too lazy to look it up, but who did Toronto trade to acquire the pitching. I'm betting it wasn't a bunch of old (for their level) Minor League corner outfielders. Probably used some very high upside fresh out of high school arms, and the O's (Elias don't believe in that).

Okay did the work, Matz acquired for young pitching (3)

Stripling acquired for young pitching  (1)

Berrios acquired for young pitching (1)

The O's don't draft HS pitchers, they don't draft any pitchers and they are not going to acqure ML pitchers for corner OF'ers

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

If I was building an organization from scratch, I'd invest more heavily in position players. And that's what Elias has done. I think we're at the point now that we can put more emphasis on drafting pitchers because there's enough depth on offense now, so I expect that we'll do that in the 2022 draft. From a macro perspective, I think Elias has done a fine job in the time he's been here. Building organizational depth was job #1, and that was in his wheelhouse. What remains to be seen is how he crafts a ML playoff roster, and a ML playoff coaching staff. To my memory, that was where Gillick was at his best. But until he proves he can do that, Elias is still a talent builder who is growing into his new job. I'd feel more comfortable if Elias had an assistant GM who had that experience on his resume. 

I agree.  I have zero issue with him going position heavy.

But that is also predicated on the idea that ownership will allow him to spend money on pitching and that he will make trades for established pitching.

If these things don’t happen, then the strategy is pretty dumb.  The strategy should then be one that requires more balance.

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It is pretty obvious that when the time is right (and maybe beginning next year), the O’s will have to acquire pitching from outside the organization.   And while I agree 100% with Can_of_corn that this is easier said than done, consider Toronto:

Robbie Ray (23 starts) acquired by trade, resigned as a free agent ($8 mm)

Hyun Jin Ryu (23 starts) signed as free agent (4/$80 mm)

Steven Matz (21 starts) acquired in a trade

Ross Stripling (19 starts) acquired in a trade

Jose Berrios (2021 deadline deal) acquired in a trade.

That’s not a great staff, but it’s a competitive one.   They did that, acquired Springer and Semien, and still have a payroll that is $64 mm below their $182 mm peak (they are at $118 mm this year).    

Now, I know C_of_c and some other will say, “there’s no evidence the Angelos brothers will authorize that kind of spending.”   Well, I believe they will.   I think the whole point of the rebuild was to establish a good young homegrown core that could be built around by adding via free agency and trades at the right time.    But we’ll see.

The Toronto model is not sustainable if it even gets off the ground (4.5 back for the second WC). 

Ray is pitching out of his mind and if they want to keep him it will be on a very tough contract to swallow down the road.

Matz is on a one year deal.

Stripling is borderline #4.

Ryu is in year 2 of a 4 year contract he will be 36 at the end of.

Barrios is basically the same as Ray.  Short term with a big contract coming.

If they retain Ray its unlikely they get a season like this again as he is outperforming peripherals.  Its also likely Ryu starts to get worse in his mid 30s.  They might have had (pitching wise) their best case scenario this year.  Although their payroll is in the low $100 million range that will sky rocket when Vlad, Bichette and others come up to arbitration years.

I think you have two archetypes for competitive teams among the mid to low market teams.

The sustained low budget competitiveness that we see in the Rays and A's.  That to this point has resulted in a number of playoff appearances, a few WS, but no championships.

The tank and peak.  The twins the last few years.  The Royals (who succeeded).  The Marlins (classically).  You get a four year run and then five years of painful rebuild.

I think the Blue Jays fit into the latter, and I think what most OHers would like to see is the former.  So I dont know that they are the build we want to follow.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

Too lazy to look it up, but who did Toronto trade to acquire the pitching. I'm betting it wasn't a bunch of old (for their level) Minor League corner outfielders. Probably used some very high upside fresh out of high school arms, and the O's (Elias don't believe in that).

Okay did the work, Matz acquired for young pitching (3)

Stripling acquired for young pitching  (1)

Berrios acquired for young pitching (1)

The O's don't draft HS pitchers, they don't draft any pitchers and they are not going to acqure ML pitchers for corner OF'ers

Berrios was acquired for Austin Martin.  He isn’t a pitcher.

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, interloper said:

Ah, a thread dominated by SG and CoC. I'm good, thanks!

Damn, I was really hoping for your always welcomed and anticipated brilliant responses.  

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't get why folks think other teams will take all the risks to develop pitching and then trade it to the Orioles for whatever corner outfielders we don't have roster spots for.

I don't think a leftover corner outfielder brings that kind of return. But a Mullins would.

I don't think Elias has some grand plan to draft only outfielders and then trade for pitching. I think he's just trying to draft guys that become assets of whatever kind and he likely views college outfielders as more projectible. 

And I don't think how he handled the draft before is a 100% indicator of how he will draft going forward. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

Too lazy to look it up, but who did Toronto trade to acquire the pitching. I'm betting it wasn't a bunch of old (for their level) Minor League corner outfielders. Probably used some very high upside fresh out of high school arms, and the O's (Elias don't believe in that).

Okay did the work, Matz acquired for young pitching (3)

Stripling acquired for young pitching  (1)

Berrios acquired for young pitching (1)

The O's don't draft HS pitchers, they don't draft any pitchers and they are not going to acqure ML pitchers for corner OF'ers

The Reds acquired Milt Pappas and Jack Baldschun for a corner outfielder.   They even got a younger outfielder back.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I don't think a leftover corner outfielder brings that kind of return. But a Mullins would.

I don't think Elias has some grand plan to draft only outfielders and then trade for pitching. I think he's just trying to draft guys that become assets of whatever kind and he likely views college outfielders as more projectible. 

And I don't think how he handled the draft before is a 100% indicator of how he will draft going forward. 

Of course not, when he was with the Astros they used to draft pitchers. 

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The Reds acquired Milt Pappas and Jack Baldschun for a corner outfielder.   They even got a younger outfielder back.  

LOL, I can understand how O's fans feel like the 1960's are relevant history.

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Damn, I was really hoping for your always welcomed and anticipated brilliant responses.  

You are way too offended by my joke. Ease up!

[UMDTerrapins]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I agree.  I have zero issue with him going position heavy.

But that is also predicated on the idea that ownership will allow him to spend money on pitching and that he will make trades for established pitching.

If these things don’t happen, then the strategy is pretty dumb.  The strategy should then be one that requires more balance.

I agree as well. I wouldn't be surprised if our best avenue to get a young plus starter was as a package deal that takes on a bad contract as well. Would you sign with the O's if you were a FA starter? Do we have the surplus offensive parts to acquire a young plus starter? Since both of those are a clear "no", I hope ownership is open to such a trade. Hopefully moreso now that Davis is off the roster (though we're still paying him). But that doesn't mean that such a deal is out there this offseason. I hope Elias will be hunting down those opportunities instead of hoping they come to him. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

LOL, I can understand how O's fans feel like the 1960's are relevant history.

Just kidding around.   Obviously we don’t have a corner OF trade chip remotely comparable to that.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

You are way too offended by my joke. Ease up!

That was meant to be a joke?

I figured you were just complaining.

Sorry for the confusion.