John Sickels' O's Top 20

[wickedwitch]

I agree the inconsistency on the Patton/Spoone injuries is a bit confusing. I would think you're either high on both or low on both. Other than that, I agree with almost everything.

Spoone's injury is a lot more serious than Patton's.

[tywright]

Now adding the Diamondbacks and Orioles:

KCR -- 2 A-, 6 B, 2 B-, 9 C+, 1 C ---- Top 10: 3.07 Top 20: 2.68

MIN -- 2 B+, 2 B, 5 B-, 11 C+ ------- Top 10: 2.83 Top 20: 2.58

ATL -- 1 A-, 3 B+, 3 B, 6 B-, 7 C+ --- Top 10: 3.07 Top 20: 2.75

PHI -- 3 B, 5 B-, 9 C+, 3 C ----------- Top 10: 2.70 Top 20: 2.47

TAM -- 1 A, 3 B+, 1 B, 4 B-, 11 C+ --- Top 10: 3.00 Top 20: 2.67

ARI -- 1 B+, 1 B, 5 B-, 3 C+, 10 C ---- Top 10: 2.80 Top 20: 2.40

BAL -- 1 A, 3 B+, 1 B, 4 B-, 7 C+, 4 C Top 10: 3.00 Top 20: 2.60

We're middle-of-the-pack so far.

Considering we have tied TB and ATL with the 4 A/A-/B+ players and he didn't even rank Spoone, I'd say our system is going to be ranked in the top 10 overall.

[Mackus]

Spoone's injury is a lot more serious than Patton's.

I don't think so, unless I've missed something. I thought they had the same injury, just that Patton is already through the surgery and Spoone hasn't decided if he's having it or not.

Patton had the single worse injury you can have as a pitcher, a labrum tear, and had surgery. Has Spoone had the surgery yet? If so, then he's at the same place as Patton. If not, then he's still a rehab candidate like Albers.

[NewMarketSean]

I am fine with the list although it does seem like he mailed it in on the player breakdowns.

[Frobby]

I don't think so, unless I've missed something. I thought they had the same injury, just that Patton is already through the surgery and Spoone hasn't decided if he's having it or not.

Patton had the single worse injury you can have as a pitcher, a labrum tear, and had surgery. Has Spoone had the surgery yet? If so, then he's at the same place as Patton. If not, then he's still a rehab candidate like Albers.

I think Spoone had his surgery. What sets Patton above him, IMO, is that he reports that he is throwing free and easy with no problems and I believe he pitched a little in the instructional league and looked healthy. That doesn't mean he's home free, but at least the early signs are good. Spoone won't be in a position to know how his arm has recovered for many months.

[RedDevil00]

I know this is a little late, but:

In my first read, there were three things that jumped out at me:

• Spoone being lumped in with guys who aren't nearly his equal.
• No mention of Tyler Kolodny. This isn't a big deal at all except when you see some of the names that did get a mention.
• There's quite a scattering of names that I wouldn't have considered as honorable mentions.

That's what I thought...if you're going to talk about Caleb Joseph, even if he's near the bottom of the list, Tyler Kolodny should at least get a mention, I feel. I said that to my friend, but she agreed with Sickels not putting Kolodny on the list, because he hasn't been the best at fielding this year even if he does have a good bat. I'm not justifying it, I'm just offering a possible explanation of it.

And another thing...I know that technically all the honorable mention guys are interchangeable with the "C" grade guys at the bottom of the list, but still, shouldn't Greg Miclat be on the list rather than Caleb Joseph? I feel like Miclat is definitely the one with the greater potential.

[Lucky Jim]

I think Spoone had his surgery. What sets Patton above him, IMO, is that he reports that he is throwing free and easy with no problems and I believe he pitched a little in the instructional league and looked healthy. That doesn't mean he's home free, but at least the early signs are good. Spoone won't be in a position to know how his arm has recovered for many months.

The big difference is that Patton and Spoone are the same age and yet Patton has pitched at the MLB level. Combine this with the fact that his rehab is largely behind him and you've got significant separation.

Combine THIS with the fact that Sickels has always been high on Patton (he was a B+ while in the 'Stros organization) while Spoone had just made it onto Sickels' radar before injury and you've got the recipe for the disparity.

Again, I'm pretty sure I've made it clear just how high I am/was on Spoone. But the timing of the injury was highly unfortunate. He hasn't had success above A+ ball.

To claim that there's no difference between he and Patton is simply wrong.

I agree that Sickels' ranking system isn't incredibly thorough. But the criticisms that "any of us" could do it miss the point. Could any of us do it for the entire MLB? I doubt it. What you get is a snapshot. But that snapshot captures every system, so you get a sense of context. And that's valuable.

Sickels' book does a lot more to go into depth about players, from what I understand. We're just getting a preview here, not the full monty.

[Tony-OH]

Well I know Sickels has been doing this a long time, but after the top ten, I'd have to seriously question some of his selections and non-selections for the top 20.

I can tell you for a fact that no scout who ever saw Spoone pitch would call him a "C" prospect and consider him interchangeable with a guy like Felix Romero. Romero? Really?

The lack of respect for Spoone sounds like it's coming from a guy sitting at home looking at the stat sheets and making picks. Now you can build a case that the injury is a concern, but Patton didn't pitch at all last year and Sickles still has him #10.

I'm also not sure how Hoes gets an interchangeable rating with Caleb Joseph and Pedro Beato while Avery gets a higher C+ rating.

Well, to each is own, but I honestly don't understand where he's coming up with some of the rankings or how he could have a guy like Spoone not even ranked.

Felix Romero? Really? Talk about a minor league filler guy. Yikes...

[Mackus]

The lack of respect for Spoone sounds like it's coming from a guy sitting at home looking at the stat sheets and making picks. Now you can build a case that the injury is a concern, but Patton didn't pitch at all last year and Sickles still has him #10.

I agree that Spoone is the most confusing here. Its a really tough injury, but Patton had the same thing and he's highly rated. Of course, Patton is back and throwing, so maybe thats the reason why he wrote off Spoone.

It would be interesting if there are any other organizations who have had a pitcher in their top-10 suffer a similar injury to end the season and see how far they dropped in his mind.

As for the other lower-level guys, he did say that beyond the top 10 it gets into a "for each their own" type of deal. Maybe the scouts he talked to like one guy over another for some reason. I don't know, there certainly are a couple puzzling choices.

[TakebackOPACY]

I have to preface by saying that even though I'm posting a bunch of comments, I don't take any of these rankings very seriously. I don't think they matter at all. They're just fodder for us to talk about. And, hey, I enjoy it.

2 difference in Sickles' list vs. Tony's that I agreed with - Sickles has Erbe a lot higher (5 vs. 10) and Rowell a lot lower (12 vs. 5).

In the end, neither will be 'right' or 'wrong'. And Tony offered us far more insight than baseball-reference.com ever will.

If he ends up being a #2-4 ML starter, Tony should be very comfortable in saying, "He had to improve certain things beyond the normal improvement curve to become this pitcher. I know you can't see that looking at his 2008 stats and ahead, but here's what he wasn't doing then that he's doing now. I'm glad he was able to make those improvements. It didn't come as easy for him as it looks on the stat sheets."

If he ends up slipping in the national publications, the national publications will undoubtedly pick up on what Tony has already shared with us. Sickels may have him as our #5, but the guys with the same grades (B-) are good prospects who are far from locks to be major league difference makers. I think Tony would agree with that definition of Erbe.

Spoone's injury is a lot more serious than Patton's.

The fact that we heard about Spoone's surgey after the fact makes it seem like they did exploratory surgery and when they found the tear, they were able to fix it on the spot. That would lead me to speculate that this isn't the worst labrum tear ever. Of course every labrum tear is serious.

Obviously, that's just speculation on my part. It could just be that there isn't as much information made public as fast on a 'AA' player as there is on a player who was involved in a high profile major league trade. I choose to be optimistic and hope that Spoone's injury isn't worse than Patton's, just more recent.

I know this is a little late, but:

That's what I thought...if you're going to talk about Caleb Joseph, even if he's near the bottom of the list, Tyler Kolodny should at least get a mention, I feel. I said that to my friend, but she agreed with Sickels not putting Kolodny on the list, because he hasn't been the best at fielding this year even if he does have a good bat. I'm not justifying it, I'm just offering a possible explanation of it.

I'm fine with Kolodny not being there; he actually probably shouldn't be in a national publication focusing on the best prospects. What makes his absence jump out at me is some of the names that are included.

Sickels' book does a lot more to go into depth about players, from what I understand. We're just getting a preview here, not the full monty.

While I think Sickels' stuff and some of his later choices read like he's the least informed, and like he's the most influenced by what he can read on baseball-reference, there's plenty of evidence in his comments that he's in the loop far more than the typical over-the-top fan. And thanks for making the point that the more thorough review will be in the book. On a lesser note, this is a preliminary sketch that he might change.

[Tony-OH]

So when you read that report and compare it to what Tony and the guys do on this board, Sickels work just seems superficial. It hits me as a quick, shoot-from-the-hip, pull-it-out-of your-a## kind of overview that any of us who read the OH regularly could do. No substance.

I think this comes from the fact that he has to do every organization. Like I've said before, I can't imagine doing every organziation as thoroughly as I do the Orioles system because really, you would need a team of guys to do it correctly.

The strength of Baseball America is that they do have a team of guys that talked to scouts as well as player personel folks. However, even they end up giving in to the hype of the player personel folks by giving out high velocity reports instead of digging into a finding out what guys really throw consistently.

The problem with guys like Sickels and others that do these lists is that they can't possibly know every player in every system so they have to go a lot of of stats and what they've read. This is how Spoone "just" gets on his radar last year and then dissapears after an inury. He probably doesn't know about Spoone's dominate stuff when he's healthy. I know if I wasn't following the system and saw his stats and heard about his injury, I'd probably be down on him too. Fortunately, I've seen him pitch several times and have been around scouts who were just wowed by him. I've been wowed by him.

I agree with you that numerous posters on here could put together a much better and more accurate list because they spend a lot of time and energy following the Orioles system.

Sickels has been doing this a long time and I respect him as one of the fore fathers of minor league analysis and lists, but in the end, he just can't be as thorough as I'm sure even he would like by covering every system without help.

BTW, I'm fine with him liking Erbe as I knew from the start that I had a minority opinion of Erbe's ceiling.

[Tony-OH]

I agree that Spoone is the most confusing here. Its a really tough injury, but Patton had the same thing and he's highly rated. Of course, Patton is back and throwing, so maybe thats the reason why he wrote off Spoone.

It would be interesting if there are any other organizations who have had a pitcher in their top-10 suffer a similar injury to end the season and see how far they dropped in his mind.

As for the other lower-level guys, he did say that beyond the top 10 it gets into a "for each their own" type of deal. Maybe the scouts he talked to like one guy over another for some reason. I don't know, there certainly are a couple puzzling choices.

I hear you Mack, and like I said, he's certainly welcome to have an opinion. I certainly don't know who he talks to or IF he talks to scouts about these guys, but some of his picks are just absolute headscratchers.

Either way, like TakebackPACY said, these lists are just fun for everyone to talk about anyways. In the end, the players will decide who are the real prospects.

[Lucky Jim]

This was Sickels' list last year:

Matt Wieters, C, Grade A-Troy Patton, LHP, Grade B+ (I like him more than I should perhaps)Radhames Liz, RHP, Grade B (Grade A arm, Grade C command)Bill Rowell, 3B, Grade BNolan Reimold, OF, Grade B-Garrett Olson, LHP, Grade B-Jake Arrieta, RHP, Grade B-Chorye Spoone, RHP, Grade B-Jim Hoey, RHP, Grade B-Pedro Beato, RHP, Grade B-Tim Bascom, RHP, Grade B-Brandon Erbe, RHP, Grade C+ (something weird here, hidden injury perhaps?)Brandon Snyder, 1B, Grade C+ (numbers don't match propaganda)Mike Costanzo, 3B, Grade C+Scott Moore, 3B, Grade C+Randor Bierd, RHP, Grade C+Bradley Bergesen, RHP, Grade C+Bob McCrory, RHP, Grade C (I don't like him as much as some people do. Command worries me.)David Hernandez, RHP, Grade C (sleeper potential is high though)Jeff Fiorentino, OF, Grade C (looks like a solid fourth outfielder) 

And this is why I don't find the C+/C difference between Patton and Spoone puzzling. Or even really question the logic behind his rating of Spoone. I disagree with it. But it's consistent.

Patton was downgraded from a B+ to a C+ due to his injury. Spoone from a B- to a C.

You can argue that he shouldn't be so high on Patton - and that's fair. But once you accept these baselines, it's not like they're irrational.

If Sickels' was "looking at the stat sheets" he wouldn't have had Spoone at a B- last year. As I noted, Sickels may not have given enough credence to Spoone's stuff - which I've long thought is the best in the system if/when he's healthy - but it's quite obvious that the injury is the reason for the downgrade.

Look at it this way: Spoone and Arrieta were equal going into the year. One has a successful (or very successful year) the other a debilitating injury. One moves up (B+) the other moves down ©.

Can't argue with that (other than, perhaps, the starting point.)

What should Sickels have done w/r/t the labrum tear? I mean, it's a labrum tear. This is serious stuff - even if not quite as doom-and-gloom triggering as it was five years ago.

We should note, too, that he mentions Pattons' IL performance/free-and-easy throwing. This is obviously a major factor in the analysis. When Spoone is throwing free-and-easy again, I'm sure it'll be taken into account.

And I agre with what everyone said above: these discussions are great. The lists are fun. And our critiques are very well-informed. Dealing with prospects is really the most exciting/interesting component of being a baseball fan, as far as I'm concerned. And, like a lot of us, I have Tony and the HO to thank for making me aware of that.

[Lucky Jim]

One more quick point...he does admit that he may be overrating Patton - he's obviously got a feeling about him akin to what we have for Spoone.

From his 2008 list:

Troy Patton, LHP, Grade B+ (I like him more than I should perhaps)

[BaltimoreFan]

One more quick point...he does admit that he may be overrating Patton - he's obviously got a feeling about him akin to what we have for Spoone.

From his 2008 list:

Great post, Lucky; I was about to post his list last year and raise the point that he has never liked Spoone, and it's not because he's ignorant of our organization.