John Sickels' O's Top 20

[Lt Melmo]

Depth? All that matters is your top. Most prospects that make it are at the top.

This is such an incorrect statement that I honestly feel queasy responding to it.

Most prospects don't pan out. This is why depth matters. This is all there is to it. There have been so many top-of-the-line prospect busts that it's absolutely silly to ignore depth. The wider pool of prospects you have, the more major-league contribution you will have. They might not be annual all-stars, but neither are a lot of the prospects who are supposed to be. A lot of the great ballplayers were not top-of-the-line prospects. Nick Markakis was ranked 65th by BA in 2005. Brian Roberts was never ranked. Guthrie was 53 and 70. Erik Bedard was 90.

The Orioles have four really outstanding prospects. Despite everyone's optimism about our future pitching, there's a very small chance that all four of those prospects will become above-average contributors.

The Athletics have fifteen B prospects. There's a very large chance that four of those will become above-average contributors.

If I could trade our system for theirs, I probably would.

[Stotle]

REALLY? Man, I must be more down on some of their guys then, I think they have a few that legit have a chance to be good, but some of their others look like they are going to plateau. I mean, they are deep, but I don't think they have the talent at the top, I see a lot of AAAA players in their future.

I think you have to put Cahill/Anderson/Inoa(even though he's only 16) as potential front-enders. Carter/Cardenas/Cunningham/Rodriguez solid as well. De los Santos was a good prospect before dropping to injury. Weeks and a couple others added through the draft. Blanking right now (tired) but it's pretty deep with some decent "nice" stuff at the top.

[allstar1579]

I think you have to put Cahill/Anderson/Inoa(even though he's only 16) as potential front-enders. Carter/Cardenas/Cunningham/Rodriguez solid as well. De los Santos was a good prospect before dropping to injury. Weeks and a couple others added through the draft. Blanking right now (tired) but it's pretty deep with some decent "nice" stuff at the top.

I gotcha. No argument on Cahill/Anderson of course, but I refuse to even consider Inoa for a few years, 16 is way too young, and we all know how good the odds are that we'll find out he's really 19 here sometime soon.

Carter and Gonzalez have some big upside and Cardenas is ok, but some of their other guys I'm just not sold on.

[psk3170]

This is such an incorrect statement that I honestly feel queasy responding to it.

Most prospects don't pan out. This is why depth matters. This is all there is to it. There have been so many top-of-the-line prospect busts that it's absolutely silly to ignore depth. The wider pool of prospects you have, the more major-league contribution you will have. They might not be annual all-stars, but neither are a lot of the prospects who are supposed to be. A lot of the great ballplayers were not top-of-the-line prospects. Nick Markakis was ranked 65th by BA in 2005. Brian Roberts was never ranked. Guthrie was 53 and 70. Erik Bedard was 90.

The Orioles have four really outstanding prospects. Despite everyone's optimism about our future pitching, there's a very small chance that all four of those prospects will become above-average contributors.

The Athletics have fifteen B prospects. There's a very large chance that four of those will become above-average contributors.

If I could trade our system for theirs, I probably would.

Maybe your list proves that most of our guys are under-rated as minor leaguers and have been for years. The more I compare our minor leaguers with their major leaguer performance the more I think either the coaching is bad or the stadiums too extreme (Norfolk-Pitchers park) that it makes it tough to judge our players.

Another thing I noticed is that before AM our stronger minor league players (Markakis, Ray,Loewen, Penn) were rushed never allowing for the type of roster depth that you see with Atlanta and Rays. Roster depth allows guys like Pope to have stronger years in the minors because the players around them are better or older. When I look at prospect list I often see the stronger systems like Atlanta have guys highly rated and performing that were drafted in 2003, or 2004. The O's prospects in those years are either released or in the majors already.

By the way, DeMacio was just named scout or minor league executive of the year by BA and works for his old buddy Wren in Atlanta.

[allstar1579]

Maybe your list proves that most of our guys are under-rated as minor leaguers and have been for years. The more I compare our minor leaguers with their major leaguer performance the more I think either the coaching is bad or the stadiums too extreme (Norfolk-Pitchers park) that it makes it tough to judge our players.

Another thing I noticed is that before AM our stronger minor league players (Markakis, Ray,Loewen, Penn) were rushed never allowing for the type of roster depth that you see with Atlanta and Rays. Roster depth allows guys like Pope to have stronger years in the minors because the players around them are better or older. When I look at prospect list I often see the stronger systems like Atlanta have guys highly rated and performing that were drafted in 2003, or 2004. The O's prospects in those years are either released or in the majors already.

By the way, DeMacio was just named scout or minor league executive of the year by BA and works for his old buddy Wren in Atlanta.

That list of "his" is pretty much the end of the conversation as far as prospect rankings go, BA is very good in that regard. You are trying to compare talent versus development, and you can't compare apples and oranges. Drafting well, and developing well are two different worlds, if we had drafted well, we would not have been looking at the barren cupboard that we were when Jordan got here.

Now, to the point of people drafting guys in 03-04, versus guys we drafted there, you missed the simple answer. They were drafting the best talent, which higher ceilings are generally HS kids (which ATL does well) and we were drafting college kids looking for the quick fix. See 2004 where we wanted Chris Nelson, SS, COL but we were forced into taking the best college pitcher avail. in Townsend, and we all know how THAT worked out.

The rushed thing...Markakis forced his way onto the team in ST, he was slotted for AAA. Cabrera was an injury emergency pitcher who went on to a great streak for his first 10 starts or so, so they never sent him back. Penn was another emergency starter call up later in the season, but wasn't meant to stay there, he just kept getting injured starting that next ST. Ray was an emergency fill in that did spectacularly in his stint so he earned the set up man role the next season. These guys weren't brought up to stay, they just excelled when they got their limited shot. You can't say someone was rushed just because they didn't play in AAA, many of the top prospects do not play at the level because it has turned into more of a staging ground for ML veterans and depth than it is a developmental level.

[oriole_way]

This is such an incorrect statement that I honestly feel queasy responding to it.

Most prospects don't pan out. This is why depth matters. This is all there is to it. There have been so many top-of-the-line prospect busts that it's absolutely silly to ignore depth. The wider pool of prospects you have, the more major-league contribution you will have. They might not be annual all-stars, but neither are a lot of the prospects who are supposed to be. A lot of the great ballplayers were not top-of-the-line prospects. Nick Markakis was ranked 65th by BA in 2005. Brian Roberts was never ranked. Guthrie was 53 and 70. Erik Bedard was 90.

The Orioles have four really outstanding prospects. Despite everyone's optimism about our future pitching, there's a very small chance that all four of those prospects will become above-average contributors.

The Athletics have fifteen B prospects. There's a very large chance that four of those will become above-average contributors.

If I could trade our system for theirs, I probably would.

Pointing out Jim Johnson makes your point. He was never really thought of that highly, except maybe when we were barren for prospects. Heck, even most Oriole fans weren't expecting much out of him and he had a pretty good year last year. And after watching him pitch, I don't think it was just a fluky season. If he stays healthy, I could see him being an asset for a few years.

[allstar1579]

Pointing out Jim Johnson makes your point. He was never really thought of that highly, except maybe when we were barren for prospects. Heck, even most Oriole fans weren't expecting much out of him and he had a pretty good year last year. And after watching him pitch, I don't think it was just a fluky season. If he stays healthy, I could see him being an asset for a few years.

Actually, a few years back he was thought of fairly highly, not in the top 100, but that's because we weren't drafting well and none of ours were, I'm pretty sure he was in our top 8 one year though. He was a starter all through the minors, so to say a guy who was a starter will be a lights out reliever in the majors is all guesswork and you can't predict that. If he were a reliever in the minors and putting up these kinds of numbers he would have been much higher ranked.

I wouldn't go picking him to be the bullpen savior, but he's a decent one-inning guy.

[oriole_way]

Actually, a few years back he was thought of fairly highly, not in the top 100, but that's because we weren't drafting well and none of ours were, I'm pretty sure he was in our top 8 one year though. He was a starter all through the minors, so to say a guy who was a starter will be a lights out reliever in the majors is all guesswork and you can't predict that. If he were a reliever in the minors and putting up these kinds of numbers he would have been much higher ranked.

I wouldn't go picking him to be the bullpen savior, but he's a decent one-inning guy.

If you admit that we weren't drafting well back then, and that he wasn't a top 100 prospect, then I think it's fair to say that he wasn't thought of that "highly" in general. Being the best amongst a generall weak group does not make you a highly thought of prospect. And he wasn't even the best amongst a weak group. Like you said, he cracked the Orioles top 10 prospect once, when he was rated 7th in 2005. (This is according to the lists here on Orioles Hangout.)

Anyway, I never meant to say that he was NOT a prospect, just not thought of that highly, which goes to what Melmo was saying: that it's important to have depth in your system because not all top prospects pan out and that you are more likely to get major league contribution if you have a wider pool of prospects. He was pointing out that the A's have 15 B prospects.

If Johnson was rated by Sickels back then, it's likely that he would have gotten a similar rating, and he is providing major league contribution. And that brings me to my next point. I said that Johnson looks to be an asset. I never said or implied savior.

asset = a useful person, quality or thing and hence, valuable

savior = a person that rescues from harm or danger, Jesus.

And then you say that you can't predict that a starter in the minors will be a lights out reliever in the majors and that it's guesswork. That's my point. That's why you need depth, because you often don't know who is going to pan out with any high degree of certainty.

[PaulBako]

If I could trade our system for theirs, I probably would.

If we did that, I would keep Wieters and the A's could keep Cahill.

[allstar1579]

If you admit that we weren't drafting well back then, and that he wasn't a top 100 prospect, then I think it's fair to say that he wasn't thought of that "highly" in general. Being the best amongst a generall weak group does not make you a highly thought of prospect. And he wasn't even the best amongst a weak group. Like you said, he cracked the Orioles top 10 prospect once, when he was rated 7th in 2005. (This is according to the lists here on Orioles Hangout.)

Anyway, I never meant to say that he was NOT a prospect, just not thought of that highly, which goes to what Melmo was saying: that it's important to have depth in your system because not all top prospects pan out and that you are more likely to get major league contribution if you have a wider pool of prospects. He was pointing out that the A's have 15 B prospects.

If Johnson was rated by Sickels back then, it's likely that he would have gotten a similar rating, and he is providing major league contribution. And that brings me to my next point. I said that Johnson looks to be an asset. I never said or implied savior.

asset = a useful person, quality or thing and hence, valuable

savior = a person that rescues from harm or danger, Jesus.

And then you say that you can't predict that a starter in the minors will be a lights out reliever in the majors and that it's guesswork. That's my point. That's why you need depth, because you often don't know who is going to pan out with any high degree of certainty.

Maybe you need to work on internet context because I wasn't disagreeing with you. Testy...testy...

I am firmly in the court of depth. The only thing that I can disagree on a bit, is I know how highly Johnson was thought of a few years ago amongst people in the organization, things you won't read in postings, personal opinions, and they really thought he was going to turn out to be a good starter in the majors. They were wrong, but he has adapted to the bullpen role very well, therefore I am happy

[baltimoriole]

That list of "his" is pretty much the end of the conversation as far as prospect rankings go, BA is very good in that regard. You are trying to compare talent versus development, and you can't compare apples and oranges. Drafting well, and developing well are two different worlds, if we had drafted well, we would not have been looking at the barren cupboard that we were when Jordan got here.

Now, to the point of people drafting guys in 03-04, versus guys we drafted there, you missed the simple answer. They were drafting the best talent, which higher ceilings are generally HS kids (which ATL does well) and we were drafting college kids looking for the quick fix. See 2004 where we wanted Chris Nelson, SS, COL but we were forced into taking the best college pitcher avail. in Townsend, and we all know how THAT worked out.

The rushed thing...Markakis forced his way onto the team in ST, he was slotted for AAA. Cabrera was an injury emergency pitcher who went on to a great streak for his first 10 starts or so, so they never sent him back. Penn was another emergency starter call up later in the season, but wasn't meant to stay there, he just kept getting injured starting that next ST. Ray was an emergency fill in that did spectacularly in his stint so he earned the set up man role the next season. These guys weren't brought up to stay, they just excelled when they got their limited shot. You can't say someone was rushed just because they didn't play in AAA, many of the top prospects do not play at the level because it has turned into more of a staging ground for ML veterans and depth than it is a developmental level.

I think he has a legit argument about rushing these guys. I do agree that Markakis forced his hand, but it would have been just as easy for the O's to put in Eric Debois or some other scrap heap starter instead of Daniel Cabrera or Hayden Penn when they were brought up for "emergency" starts. Case in point, the O's could have justified bringing up Bergeson this season for an "emergency" start, but chose to bring up Waters instead. Everyone knows Waters didn't deserve a spot on the roster, but to prevent rushing a more talented player the O's decided to bring up Waters.

By the way, Penn was brought up in May of 2005 and given 6 or 7 starts. He definitely would have stayed in the bigs had he performed reasonably well. He was later brought up in 2005 for the expanded roster. Loewen was unquestionably rushed, emergency start or not. The O's have a AAA affiliate. They shouldn't have brought up Loewen when they did and should have relied on their pitchers at Ottawa.

[allstar1579]

I think he has a legit argument about rushing these guys. I do agree that Markakis forced his hand, but it would have been just as easy for the O's to put in Eric Debois or some other scrap heap starter instead of Daniel Cabrera or Hayden Penn when they were brought up for "emergency" starts. Case in point, the O's could have justified bringing up Bergeson this season for an "emergency" start, but chose to bring up Waters instead. Everyone knows Waters didn't deserve a spot on the roster, but to prevent rushing a more talented player the O's decided to bring up Waters.

By the way, Penn was brought up in May of 2005 and given 6 or 7 starts. He definitely would have stayed in the bigs had he performed reasonably well. He was later brought up in 2005 for the expanded roster. Loewen was unquestionably rushed, emergency start or not. The O's have a AAA affiliate. They shouldn't have brought up Loewen when they did and should have relied on their pitchers at Ottawa.

Dubose was getting shelled in AA at the time, Penn was pitching well, Cabrera was dinged up a bit, he ended up going on the DL later on. Penn was called up when Bedard went on the DL because of his knee. You can argue that Maine should have been called up instead of Penn, but if I recall, he was either hurt, or they were on the road and he couldn't get there or something like that, there was something to it. You are absolutely right, they SHOULD have found something else to do, but between being desperate for some prospects to come up and save the day, and trying to compete.

Loewen was rushed because of his contract, when they brought him up it was use him or lose him time, that's what you get for signing draft picks to ML deals.

[laxtonto]

Adding in the Nats and Cubs:

KCR -- 2 A-, 6 B, 2 B-, 9 C+, 1 C ---- Top 10: 3.07 Top 20: 2.68

MIN -- 2 B+, 2 B, 5 B-, 11 C+ ------- Top 10: 2.83 Top 20: 2.58

ATL -- 1 A-, 3 B+, 3 B, 6 B-, 7 C+ --- Top 10: 3.07 Top 20: 2.75

PHI -- 3 B, 5 B-, 9 C+, 3 C ----------- Top 10: 2.70 Top 20: 2.47

TAM -- 1 A, 3 B+, 1 B, 4 B-, 11 C+ --- Top 10: 3.00 Top 20: 2.67

ARI -- 1 B+, 1 B, 5 B-, 3 C+, 10 C ---- Top 10: 2.80 Top 20: 2.40

BAL -- 1 A, 3 B+, 1 B, 4 B-, 7 C+, 4 C Top 10: 3.00 Top 20: 2.60

WAS - 2 B+, 1 B, 3 B-, 11 C+, 2 C ---- Top 10: 2.70 Top 20: 2.48

CHC --1 B+, 2 B, 1 3 B-. 7 C+, 7 C ----Top 10: 2.66 Top 20: 2.38

Texas list came out....

WOW

1 A

2 A-

1 B+

5 B

2 B-

13 C+

I'll let you guys do the calculations, but this isn't really a contest. Amazing depth in this system... WOW

And on a side note Sickels did a few corrections tonight...

Eric Hosmer: Grade A- to Grade B+. Want to see some full-season numbers.

Shooter Hunt: Grade B to Grade B-: To be more consistent with other grades, and due to control problems. Considering further reduction to C+.

Kevin Mulvey: Grade B- to Grade C+: To be more consistent with other grades in the book.

I am likely going to boost Anderson and Cahill to A-

[Crazysilver03]

Texas list came out....

WOW

1 A

2 A-

1 B+

5 B

2 B-

13 C+

I'll let you guys do the calculations, but this isn't really a contest. Amazing depth in this system... WOW

That is a Top 10 with a 3.233.

That is a Top 20 with a 2.800.

That is ridiculously strong.

[OrioleBird79]

That is a Top 10 with a 3.233.

That is a Top 20 with a 2.800.

That is ridiculously strong.

Amazingly. The following players came to the Rangers when they dealt Teixeira to the Braves.

1.) Neftali Feliz, RHP, Grade A: I don’t give out Grade As lightly, especially to pitchers. I might go down to A-.

3.) Elvis Andrus, SS, Grade A-: Should I go with B+ here? Athletic, very young for Double-A, I think the Renteria comparisons are apt and Andrus could be better.

They also received Jarod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones.

In 2007 Saltalamacchia was rated the #3 prospect in the Braves organization and graded out as a B. Matt Harrison was the #4 prospect in the Braves organization and graded out as a B.

To put that into perspective. The Braves received the following for Teixeira (In terms of prospects)

2 A-, 2 B, and Beau Jones

Could you imagine if the Orioles made that type of deal for a guy like Markakis? That is how you rebuild in a hurry folks.