Offseason target: Tyler Glasnow

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We are trying to be like Tampa. We shouldn't be paying $13M for one year of Glasnost either.

Yea we should.  He is easily worth that when healthy.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, waroriole said:

What if he wants to roll the dice on FA? Do you get a deal in place before you trade for him? 

If he does, you still trade for him even if it’s for just one season.

In 2023, you are either contending and you want/need him.  Or you suck and if he bounces back, you trade him for more than you traded to get him or you offer him a QO and you get a pick.  Or you hope to extend him later on.

The risk is that he becomes one of the guys whose stuff doesn’t come back after TJ surgery and he just becomes nothing.  That risk is easily worth it does a franchise like ours..one with a lot of financial flexibility (hello, this is a big reason why you rebuild, for that flexibility) and one that doesn’t have much realistic starting pitching hopes over the next few years.

Everyone wants to point to the Cubs and Astros..well their rotations were largely built from outside the organization and that is obviously the path Elias is on.

Glasnow is one of the best in the sport when healthy, so of course you take this risk.  If you are the getting him for 50 cents on the dollar, you take that risk every single time if you are in the Os situation.

[waroriole]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he does, you still trade for him even if it’s for just one season.

In 2023, you are either contending and you want/need him.  Or you suck and if he bounces back, you trade him for more than you traded to get him or you offer him a QO and you get a pick.  Or you hope to extend him later on.

The risk is that he becomes one of the guys whose stuff doesn’t come back after TJ surgery and he just becomes nothing.  That risk is easily worth it does a franchise like ours..one with a lot of financial flexibility (hello, this is a big reason why you rebuild, for that flexibility) and one that doesn’t have much realistic starting pitching hopes over the next few years.

Everyone wants to point to the Cubs and Astros..well their rotations were largely built from outside the organization and that is obviously the path Elias is on.

Glasnow is one of the best in the sport when healthy, so of course you take this risk.  If you are the getting him for 50 cents on the dollar, you take that risk every single time if you are in the Os situation.

If it’s just the financial risk, then I agree. But when we start offering Top 10 prospects, that’s a riskier proposition. For me, it would come down to which specific players we’d offer. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

If it’s just the financial risk, then I agree. But when we start offering Top 10 prospects, that’s a riskier proposition. For me, it would come down to which specific players we’d offer. 

I don’t think you would have to give up top 10 guys.  I think they could be outside the top 10.

However, a guy like Jahmai Jones is a top 10 prospect right now, at least by some sources.  Are you worried about dealing him for Glasnow?  
 

You won’t have to trade any top 100 guys or guys on the cusp of it, like say a Westburg, to get him and if some team does want to trade that type of talent for him, so be it..you let him go but that’s unlikely imo. 

[waroriole]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think you would have to give up top 10 guys.  I think they could be outside the top 10.

However, a guy like Jahmai Jones is a top 10 prospect right now, at least by some sources.  Are you worried about dealing him for Glasnow?  
 

You won’t have to trade any top 100 guys or guys on the cusp of it, like say a Westburg, to get him and if some team does want to trade that type of talent for him, so be it..you let him go but that’s unlikely imo. 

Jones I don’t care about. Westburg is a no deal for me. Stowers I’d think about only because of all the OF in the system. 

[Ruzious]

I'm not saying no to Glasnow now, but his durability is also a major questionmark; puts the Glas in Glasnow.  His career-high is 111.2 innings - 2018 when he split between starting and relieving.  The 3 years since, he's averaged just 69 innings a year.   And that doesn't include the zero for next year.      

[Moose Milligan]

I'd trade for him, even though I think he's a pretty-boy punk bitch whiner.  Would easily become the most talented pitcher we have outside of G-Rod.  

[Yardball85]

13 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So let’s add Glasnow and Chapman. Do they take us from an 0-19 team to contending?  I’d stick to the farm system theory

C'mon.  We both know that good, contending teams cannot be entirely built from a farm system.  The Orioles will need to make trades on potential buy low options if it involves a good player.  Glasnow, even with the injury is indisputably a good player. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

He's already making $4M. seems like your looking at at least $12M

For the two years combined?   I’d agree it could be in that ballpark.   It’s hard to tell; I haven’t found a good comp of someone who had a good partial season during his Arb years, got hurt and was brought back the next year even though they’d be missing a lot of the season.   I’m sure good examples exist, I just haven’t found one.   

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For the two years combined?   I’d agree it could be in that ballpark.   It’s hard to tell; I haven’t found a good comp of someone who had a good partial season during his Arb years, got hurt and was brought back the next year even though they’d be missing a lot of the season.   I’m sure good examples exist, I just haven’t found one.   

Whether it’s 10 or 15M, it really doesn’t matter.  The difference is nothing in the scheme of things.

[Camden_yardbird]

13 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So let’s add Glasnow and Chapman. Do they take us from an 0-19 team to contending?  I’d stick to the farm system theory

If you think a farm system, and solely a farm system can restore a team to competitiveness then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Whether it’s 10 or 15M, it really doesn’t matter.  The difference is nothing in the scheme of things.

I don’t think GM’s or owners think that way.   They’ll take guys to arbitration over differences of a few hundred thousand dollars sometimes.   Going after a guy coming off TJ is certainly a gamble, and the size of the economic gamble certainly matters.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

37 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd trade for him, even though I think he's a pretty-boy punk bitch whiner.  Would easily become the most talented pitcher we have outside of G-Rod.  

Ok but if there's a players jersey weekend Glasnow's jersey has to be "Pretty-Boy". 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think GM’s or owners think that way.   They’ll take guys to arbitration over differences of a few hundred thousand dollars sometimes.   Going after a guy coming off TJ is certainly a gamble, and the size of the economic gamble certainly matters.   

If the rebuild worked and accomplished what they claim it accomplishes, a few million dollars isn’t stopping you from doing anything and if it does, you have completely failed.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Whether it’s 10 or 15M, it really doesn’t matter.  The difference is nothing in the scheme of things.

Let's say it's $12M. That's a little more than nothing. But it's also whoever we trade to get him. Who would Tampa want? Again, if Elias is trying to implement the Tampa Model, why are we trading prospects to Tampa? And paying $12M. Doesn't make a whole lotta sense to me. I'd rather just sign a guy, preferably one with no known injury risk.