Per the Sun, O's looking at Izturis

[lovetoaster]

Garret Olson is not a high-ceiling guy.

I don't think anybody is regarding Olson as a high-ceiling guy. I like Olson, but I think he is potentially no better than a No. 3, and I think he will be a back of the rotation guy.

But right now, that holds more value to me right now than Greene. Listen, I like Greene, but he was dreadful last year, and has been on a bit of a decline the past few years. What are the factors for that, who knows. He was horrendous last year, and save the splits, it was not just at Petco.

I think he is a little overrated, and while he has put up good offensive numbers in individual categories certain years, his complete offensive line from year to year has never really impressed me. And who is to say that he can repeat any of those numbers from 2004-07? He did not look like an ML player last year.

He is an excellent defensive player, but so is Izturis. There is nothing you can say with any certainty about Greene's offensive ability for 2009 and beyond after last year.

Would I like to have him, over our other options and Izturis? Absolutely. But if I am AM, am I going to give up Olson for one guaranteed year of him? Not a chance.

Olson has some potential, some people have doubts about how much, but I am pretty sure that we have not seen his best at the ML level yet. We may have seen Greenes, and may not see it again.

[blueberryale77]

Not trading Olson for Greene Makin Me Mad. :angryfire:

I like Izturis... as a utility player.

[Mackus]

This is exhibit A of why baseball fans, even dedicated, smart ones, pay too much attention to statistics and prospect "hype" and too little attention to what they see right in front of them. Garret Olson is not a high-ceiling guy. You can point to his minor league numbers all you want. There are a zillion guys in baseball history who could dominate AAA even more than Olson has but can't cut it at the ML level. Olson doesn't have dominating, or even very good, stuff. IF he can improve his control and IF he can get his head straightened out he might become a decent swingman or lefty out of the bullpen. That's it. That's his ceiling. Comparing him to Guthrie is laughable. Olson does not miss bats. He doesn't have a go-to pitch. His control has been very bad. And he clearly has a bad mental approach.

Last year at this time I was in the minority who said that Loewen was not going to make it in the Os starting rotation. In fact, I predicted he would be out of baseball in 3 years. I was probably wrong, but only because he will stick around as a hitter. He had terrible control but slightly better velocity than Olson, a much better curveball, and he was bigger and more athletic. We fall into the trap of paying too much attention to draft rounds and minor league success, and not to the tools that can achieve major league success. I'll go on record as predicting Cabrera, Liz, and maybe even Penn will have better major league careers than Olson.

I recognize Greene is not a great player. He is pretty talented and has contributed offensively even playing in the worst hitting ballpark in modern baseball history. Even for a year, I'd take my chances. My concern about Olson becoming the next Maine and having to regret the trade for years to come is zero. Rather my concern is that we will regret not making this trade.

The only reason to go get Greene is if his price is low. Olson is not a low price. Someone in our 10-15 prospects range would be the right price. If Olson was still a prospect, he'd probably still be top 10, and definitely would be based on his minor league numbers.

He's not gonna be a front rotation starter, obviously, but even a guy who is a decent #5 is more valuable than one year of Greene.

Olson for Greene would have been a very stupid trade, IMO, and I honestly don't understand how anybody could think differently.

[lovetoaster]

:agree:

Well put Mackus.

[millertime]

I'm sorry that I am going off the current topic in this post as to whether Olson for Greene would or would not be a good trade, but I have to put in my opinion about the original title of this post. The Orioles are targeting Cesar Izturis. CESAR IZTURIS??? Are you kidding me??? With the slew of SS options out there, we are targeting Izturis? I just don't get that at all. How is he anymore of an upgrade over what we had last year? He has zero power, mediocre batting average, and thats about it. I don't care whether he is solid defensively, we need a SS that can actually hit the dam ball. I'm not saying we should go out and spend a ton on someone like Furcal or Renteria, but there HAS TO BE a better option than Cesar Izturis.

[Mackus]

I'm sorry that I am going off the current topic in this post as to whether Olson for Greene would or would not be a good trade, but I have to put in my opinion about the original title of this post. The Orioles are targeting Cesar Izturis. CESAR IZTURIS??? Are you kidding me??? With the slew of SS options out there, we are targeting Izturis? I just don't get that at all. How is he anymore of an upgrade over what we had last year? He has zero power, mediocre batting average, and thats about it. I don't care whether he is solid defensively, we need a SS that can actually hit the dam ball. I'm not saying we should go out and spend a ton on someone like Furcal or Renteria, but there HAS TO BE a better option than Cesar Izturis.

Izturis is the best FA option considering contract. He's obviously one of the better defensive SS in all of baseball and, believe it or not, his 630 career OPS would be quite an upgrade to what we had last year (although still pretty bad).

[SilentJames]

Willie Bloomquist (31)

Orlando Cabrera (34) - Type A

Alex Cintron (30)

Alex Cora (33)

Craig Counsell (38)

David Eckstein (34)

Adam Everett (32)

Rafael Furcal (31)

Nomar Garciaparra (35)

Chris Gomez (38)

Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)

Cesar Izturis (29)

Felipe Lopez (29)

Tomohiro Nioka (33)

Nick Punto (31)

Edgar Renteria (33) - Type A

Luis Rivas (29)

Juan Uribe (30) - Type B

Ramon Vazquez (32)

Omar Vizquel (42)

There is a list. SO, you want a year of Nomar or Omar who will cost you way too much money for what they bring?

You want to give Furcal a three year deal?

The only name on that list that is the least bit interesting to me is Bloomquist, but Izturis is a much better defender.

I mean, yeah there is a "slew" of shortstops, but a slew of what exactly? Looking at that list, one-two year(s) of cheap Caesar Izturis makes sense.

[Roll Tide]

Willie Bloomquist (31)

Orlando Cabrera (34) - Type A

Alex Cintron (30)

Alex Cora (33)

Craig Counsell (38)

David Eckstein (34)

Adam Everett (32)

Rafael Furcal (31)

Nomar Garciaparra (35)

Chris Gomez (38)

Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)

Cesar Izturis (29)

Felipe Lopez (29)

Tomohiro Nioka (33)

Nick Punto (31)

Edgar Renteria (33) - Type A

Luis Rivas (29)

Juan Uribe (30) - Type B

Ramon Vazquez (32)

Omar Vizquel (42)

There is a list. SO, you want a year of Nomar or Omar who will cost you way too much money for what they bring?

You want to give Furcal a three year deal?

The only name on that list that is the least bit interesting to me is Bloomquist, but Izturis is a much better defender.

I mean, yeah there is a "slew" of shortstops, but a slew of what exactly? Looking at that list, one-two year(s) of cheap Caesar Izturis makes sense.

I think they should get our next SS via trade ... That list is littered with Guys that are too old or have holes in their game.

Get Hardy or Brignac or some guy that can really make a difference not just fill a hole.

[MarCakes21]

What are the possibilities of extending Greene for something cheap after we trade him. Like 4/20 or something. Would anyone object to this? Either way, I wouldn't give up Olson to get him.

[lovetoaster]

What are the possibilities of extending Greene for something cheap after we trade him. Like 4/20 or something. Would anyone object to this? Either way, I wouldn't give up Olson to get him.

I doubt he would do it. And I don't know if I would want to do it as a team after his performance last year. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[lovetoaster]

Get Hardy or Brignac or some guy that can really make a difference not just fill a hole.

I would love to get Hardy, but I think the price is going to be astronomical. And it probably should be, given the market.

[LookinUp]

What you pay in a trade is determined by establishing the need, identifying the player and considering the market for that player.

The market for Greene is small because he's expensive and had a terrible year last year. We can get him for less than Olson and AM knows that. I predict we do trade for Greene, ultimately for a small package of mid-level at best prospects.

[SilentJames]

I think they should get our next SS via trade ... That list is littered with Guys that are too old or have holes in their game.

Get Hardy or Brignac or some guy that can really make a difference not just fill a hole.

We should also ask the Yankees about A-Rod while we are at it.

Trades aren't that simple.

[CSFS96]

Notoriously tight lipped GM leaking details on all options for a glaring need. Couldn't this just be AM trying to get movement on potential trading partners.

Other than the Orioles, do the Padres have other options (better) for dumping Greene?

Everyone is making good points on all the SS solutions available. Os are one of the few SS buyers willing to take on salary.

I'm not ready to condemn MacPhail yet. I'm cautiously optimistic that this is a ploy.

[ccbird]

I suggested Izturis this summer. I think it's a great low-risk move, and you can probably land him without investing more than 2-3 years and $6-10mios. That works for me! If you grab a shortstop elsewhere while he's under contract he can shift to the 24th man role and give you some bench defense up-the-middle.

Great point. I can see people being upset if Izturis is the guy we plan on being at short for the next 4-5 years. However, as you point out, he is a guy that you can probably sign for 2 or 3 mil a year, be a stop-gap for a year or two and then slide over and be a quality utility player when we find our future. I doubt if Andy signs him he stops his search for a younger and better SS.