Per the Sun, O's looking at Izturis

[Rolotomassie]

"Izturis = terrific defense" has come to be something of a foregone conclusion.

I can tell you that in the 80 or 100 games we had the guy in Chicago, he was decidedly underwhelming in the field, and lots of our fans were shrugging their shoulders wondering what all the hoopla was about -- plus range, average at best arm; most of the time his hands seemed good, but nevertheless he made a number of routine errors. Altogether, nothing special at all.

It'd be great if someone would do the legwork to piece together a few years worth of defensive data on the guy, using one or more of the advanced PBP-based systems (UZR, Fielding bible, etc). I'd be curious what his stats looked like during his time with the Cubs, and how they measure up to these subjective observations (and how much better or worse the numbers were before and after CHI).

Dave, as a third party, what's your assessment of Olson? Have you seen much of him? What would you give up for him? Cedeno? Pie? You've been brutally honest in your assessment of Orioles in the past. What's your opinion of Olson for Greene?

[Mackus]

Mackus and TakeBackOPACY:

I see your arguments, and I respect your opinions. However, where we seem to fundamentally disagree is the bolded concepts above. Basically, on the value of Olson. I'm saying his value to the Orioles is slim to almost nothing. We don't need starting pitchers because we didn't have a Garret Olson last year, we need starting pitchers because we WERE starting Garret Olson last year. You are valuing Olson based on his minor league numbers and his "hype" as a prospect. Because of those factors, you assume final product Garret Olson is much better than what we saw last year. Based on my own observations about his stuff, his mental approach, and his command, I don't think finished product Olson is much better than what we have seen, at least not major league starting rotation material. And I don't put much credence into minor league success in and of itself.

If you're ready to completely give up on Olson, then thats where we differ. I still think Olson will be a solid major league starter, and I definitely think that the chances of him becoming one is worth more than the chance that Greene isn't a complete liability at SS for one season.

Also, while I prefer Greene, there is a very realistic possibility (although probably under 50/50) that Izturis is the better player next year. He was definitely the better player last year.

[lovetoaster]

The only people Khalil Greene is bringing to the ballpark are friends and relatives.

:wedge: Well played.

[Rolotomassie]

The only people Khalil Greene is bringing to the ballpark are friends and relatives.

He is a Western PA guy and went to Clemson, so at least he's regional if not local. And I guarantee he'd be at least less of a turn-OFF to fans than Izturis.

[millertime]

Nonsense. I think a lot of people are missing how much potential we have to improve by obtaining even an average offensive SS. Going from a 600 to an 800 OPS at shortstop could gain us more wins than upgrading from Millar to Teixeira at first.

I'm not saying that defense isn't very important at SS but we need to give up the idea that our offense will be fine going forward and start realizing how much room we have to gain at that position.

Amen! I couldn't agree more. Defense is important but to me as well, but Izturis is AWFUL offensively and there is no reason to believe that he will get any better.

[nemO821]

Like you say Mackus & Takebackopacy are valuing Olsen's hype & minor league numbers you yourself are valuing Greene goes back to his old self and doesn't have a repeat year from last year. Your so ready to give up on Olsen becuase of his numbers last year, but so eager to get Greene who had awful numbers last year.

[Mackus]

He is a Western PA guy and went to Clemson, so at least he's regional if not local. And I guarantee he'd be at least less of a turn-OFF to fans than Izturis.

Neither Izturis nor Greene will effect attendance in any possible way.

[murrayfan420]

Neither Izturis nor Greene will effect attendance in any possible way.

Bingo. Just what I was about to reply

[Frobby]

Mackus and TakeBackOPACY:

I see your arguments, and I respect your opinions. However, where we seem to fundamentally disagree is the bolded concepts above. Basically, on the value of Olson. I'm saying his value to the Orioles is slim to almost nothing. We don't need starting pitchers because we didn't have a Garret Olson last year, we need starting pitchers because we WERE starting Garret Olson last year. You are valuing Olson based on his minor league numbers and his "hype" as a prospect. Because of those factors, you assume final product Garret Olson is much better than what we saw last year. Based on my own observations about his stuff, his mental approach, and his command, I don't think finished product Olson is much better than what we have seen, at least not major league starting rotation material. And I don't put much credence into minor league success in and of itself.

I think the answer here is MacPhail's concept of "inventory."

"It's really a game of inventory for me. As many as you can. You're going to have certain disappointments, you're going to have some pleasant developments. You've just got to work with numbers and try to build up the base as best you can and add as much to the inventory as you can."

http://www.sportsline.com/mcc/messages/chrono/10788152

Simply put, Olson is part of the inventory that might be a disappointment or might be a pleasant development next year.

[millertime]

Also, while I prefer Greene, there is a very realistic possibility (although probably under 50/50) that Izturis is the better player next year. He was definitely the better player last year.

Yikes. While I generally agree with most of your points Mackus, I think there is zero chance that Izturis will be a better player than Greene next year...unless Greene suffers a season ending injury early somehow. I am not suggesting that Greene is going to be a top 5 shortstop next year, but he is young and has 30HR potential. He is like the Ryan Howard of shortstops. If you can tolerate the mediocre average and the strikeouts, he is going to drive in a lot of runs for any team and I would take that anyday over Izturis.

[Mackus]

Yikes. While I generally agree with most of your points Mackus, I think there is zero chance that Izturis will be a better player than Greene next year...unless Greene suffers a season ending injury early somehow. I am not suggesting that Greene is going to be a top 5 shortstop next year, but he is young and has 30HR potential. He is like the Ryan Howard of shortstops. If you can tolerate the mediocre average and the strikeouts, he is going to drive in a lot of runs for any team and I would take that anyday over Izturis.

Izturis was better last year. Both offensively and defensively. So obviously there is more than a zero percent chance he'll be better next year.

Clearly Greene has vastly higher upside (at least offensively) but you absolutely cannot say there is no chance Izturis isn't the better player next year. I don't think its the most likely scenario, but its certainly plausible.

[Hank Scorpio]

Yikes. While I generally agree with most of your points Mackus, I think there is zero chance that Izturis will be a better player than Greene next year...unless Greene suffers a season ending injury early somehow. I am not suggesting that Greene is going to be a top 5 shortstop next year, but he is young and has 30HR potential. He is like the Ryan Howard of shortstops. If you can tolerate the mediocre average and the strikeouts, he is going to drive in a lot of runs for any team and I would take that anyday over Izturis.

The whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?????????

[davearm]

Dave, as a third party, what's your assessment of Olson? Have you seen much of him? What would you give up for him? Cedeno? Pie? You've been brutally honest in your assessment of Orioles in the past. What's your opinion of Olson for Greene?

I don't think Olson will amount to much. Upside is a decent backend guy, but a swingman in the Burres/Birkins mold seems more likely. I really don't see a soft-tosser like him being a #3ish or better starter -- you can probably count the Jamie Moyers of the baseball world on one hand.

I don't see the Cubs having much interest in a guy like that, but if they did, Cedeno would be fair value.

As for Greene, I can see both sides of the argument, actually. I don't agree with the folks that think it's ludicrous to even consider dealing Olson for Greene, but in the end I probably wouldn't, on the grounds that Greene would be highly likely (IMO) to be gone after one year, while Olson can continue to provide modest-but-cheap production for years.

[waroriole]

He is like the Ryan Howard of shortstops. If you can tolerate the mediocre average and the strikeouts, he is going to drive in a lot of runs for any team and I would take that anyday over Izturis.

The whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?????????

Hank, maybe you're forgetting that one time Greene hit 27 HR in ONE single season. Now who cares if his OBP wasn't even .300 that year. He is clearly the Ryan Howard of SS. I would compare him to Ernie Banks.

[Babypowder]

Greene .248/.304/.431 21HRs per 162 games

Howard .279/.380/.590 50 HRs per 162 games

Where is there even a remote similarity here?