Qualified

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not a fan.  While it's been a good season for him and he's had a lot of good moments, I still don't buy into the idea that he's magically going to be healthy from here on out.  In other words, I don't trust him.  

That, and he's a low OBP guy.  If this were 1990, I'm assuming I'd feel differently.

 

 

His career OBP is .310.  Last few years the league is .316-.325.  So not quite like a .310 from 20 or 30 years ago when league was .330-.350.

[interloper]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not a fan.  While it's been a good season for him and he's had a lot of good moments, I still don't buy into the idea that he's magically going to be healthy from here on out.  In other words, I don't trust him.  

That, and he's a low OBP guy.  If this were 1990, I'm assuming I'd feel differently.

 

 

What makes me a fan is the defense. He's basically the best defensive player on the entire team, so as long as he keeps doing that I can live with the below average OBP. 

[Moose Milligan]

25 minutes ago, interloper said:

What makes me a fan is the defense. He's basically the best defensive player on the entire team, so as long as he keeps doing that I can live with the below average OBP. 

The defense is nice, I agree.  

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop RE: injuries.

Quite frankly, I'd like to sell high on Hays right now.  I mean, it's hard to know when you think you're selling high, right?  Right now, we would be selling high on Hays, he's put together a 20 homer season and stayed relatively healthy as he can.  This is the high-water mark of his career so far.  

We could deal him and he could turn into a 30-30 guy next year somewhere else with great defense.  At that point, it would be clear we didn't sell high on him.

But if he could net us a good pitching prospect or two as part of a package, I wouldn't hesitate.  I wouldn't be actively shopping but I would let other teams know I'd be willing to take calls on him.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The defense is nice, I agree.  

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop RE: injuries.

Quite frankly, I'd like to sell high on Hays right now.  I mean, it's hard to know when you think you're selling high, right?  Right now, we would be selling high on Hays, he's put together a 20 homer season and stayed relatively healthy as he can.  This is the high-water mark of his career so far.  

We could deal him and he could turn into a 30-30 guy next year somewhere else with great defense.  At that point, it would be clear we didn't sell high on him.

But if he could net us a good pitching prospect or two as part of a package, I wouldn't hesitate.  I would be actively shopping but I would let other teams know I'd be willing to take calls on him.

As you know, I’m a big Hays fan.   But would I move him for an equally good pitcher?    In a heartbeat.   We have other outfielders coming down the pike.   

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Frobby said:

As you know, I’m a big Hays fan.   But would I move him for an equally good pitcher?    In a heartbeat.   We have other outfielders coming down the pike.   

Exactly.  If we didn't have the other outfielders coming down the pike I'd probably be a bit more hesitant to move him.  

[SilverRocket]

His sprint speed this year has dropped to 59th percentile, down from 76 last year and 86 in 2019. Both IL stints this year were hamstring injuries, so it could be that. A healthy Hays reminds me of Adam Jones.

[Ruzious]

A .950 OPS in the 26 games he's played in September - I'm a BIG Hays fan.  I'll add to what SilverRocket said - Adam Jones with a more accurate throwing arm.  Not too shabby.  

[jabba72]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not a fan.  While it's been a good season for him and he's had a lot of good moments, I still don't buy into the idea that he's magically going to be healthy from here on out.  In other words, I don't trust him.  

That, and he's a low OBP guy.  If this were 1990, I'm assuming I'd feel differently.

 

 

Low OBP but he has great range for LF. Power is nice too. He's a complementary player for a few years before Cowser and Kjerstad develop. 

[LA2]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

The hitters have not dropped off as drastically as the pitchers.  

Qualified hitters

2001 - 156

2011 - 145

2019 - 135

2021 -113

Qualified pitchers 

2001 - 84

2011 - 94

2019 -61

2021 - 41

We’ll see what happens next year.   Teams were very cautious with their pitchers this year but may be a bit more aggressive next year.    I’m not really sure what’s going on with the hitters.

 

True, not as drastically, but drastic nonetheless--down 16.3% for the batters and 32.8% for the pitchers during just the span between 2019 and now.

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Ruzious said:

A .950 OPS in the 26 games he's played in September - I'm a BIG Hays fan.  I'll add to what SilverRocket said - Adam Jones with a more accurate throwing arm.  Not too shabby.  

Stop it. Jones had a better hit tool and better power, better everything really. 
 

Plus Adam played every day. I know Frobby and other big fans are thrilled to point out that Austin qualified for a batting title this year, but Jones already had 5 such seasons when he was 26. 

[Ruzious]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Stop it. Jones had a better hit tool and better power, better everything really. 
 

Plus Adam played every day. I know Frobby and other big fans are thrilled to point out that Austin qualified for a batting title this year, but Jones already had 5 such seasons when he was 26. 

Jones was real solid all-around and very durable, but let's not make out that he ever even approached being a great hitter.  He was a good hitter who had only 2 seasons OPSing over .800 while playing in Baltimore  It wouldn't surprise me if Hays ends up having some better hitting seasons than Jones ever had.  Even with a poor start, Hays has a .771 OPS this year - which is Adam Jones' career OPS, and I expect Hays will do better than that over the next few years.  I'll grant you Jones was more durable, and he was better at a younger age, but going forward, they are similar talents, imo.          

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Stop it. Jones had a better hit tool and better power, better everything really. 
 

Plus Adam played every day. I know Frobby and other big fans are thrilled to point out that Austin qualified for a batting title this year, but Jones already had 5 such seasons when he was 26. 

 

23 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Stop it. Jones had a better hit tool and better power, better everything really. 
 

Plus Adam played every day. I know Frobby and other big fans are thrilled to point out that Austin qualified for a batting title this year, but Jones already had 5 such seasons when he was 26. 

Yeah, I’m not putting Hays in Jones’ league just yet.   Ironically, I remember Jones had some injuries in 2008 and 2009 and some tried to slap the injury-prone label on him.   He certainly proved them wrong.   

I do think that the best of Hays is yet to come.   Hopefully he can put up a few 3.5-4.0 WARish seasons over the next 5 years or so.    But, I doubt he’ll reach Adam’s peak, and he almost certainly won’t match Adam’s overall career.   
 

[Just Regular]

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's an interesting thing.  I don't know why fewer batters are qualifying.  I need to think this through.

I think the Decision Science of Rest is part of it.   Puzzling out the 2021 Giants, I've heard specific kudos to Farhan for achieving a de facto 30-man roster, and was interested to hear that sometimes when they option guys to Sacramento, they just stay in San Fran.   (I guess the River Cats have to play short, shucky darn).

Would love to hear Sig opine about The Streak sometime after a couple drinks.

[DrungoHazewood]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I’m not putting Hays in Jones’ league just yet.   Ironically, I remember Jones had some injuries in 2008 and 2009 and some tried to slap the injury-prone label on him.   He certainly proved them wrong.   

I do think that the best of Hays is yet to come.   Hopefully he can put up a few 3.5-4.0 WARish seasons over the next 5 years or so.    But, I doubt he’ll reach Adam’s peak, and he almost certainly won’t match Adam’s overall career.   
 

I don't think Adam had a particularly high peak or a particularly long career.  He never had a five-win season, and he was done as a productive MLB player at 31.  I doubt Hays has Jones' peak, and he's started much later.  But it's not crazy to think he could still be a decent player into his mid-30s.  He'll need to develop some more plate discipline as he ages, and maybe keep his speed longer than normal.

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't think Adam had a particularly high peak or a particularly long career.  He never had a five-win season, and he was done as a productive MLB player at 31.  I doubt Hays has Jones' peak, and he's started much later.  But it's not crazy to think he could still be a decent player into his mid-30s.  He'll need to develop some more plate discipline as he ages, and maybe keep his speed longer than normal.

Just repeating stuff I hear Eno Sarris say here, but it was new to me this year the takeaway that offense on out of zone contact ages horribly.

I guess with enough juice in your limbs you can get by inefficiently for awhile, but once you can't, you're done.   Whereas Markakis can nurse his batting skills until some October when Walker Buehler is like, "Seriously, you're still here?".

For watching if Mountcastle becomes like a few years asset or a most of the decade one, that's most of the deal.   The bat to ball skills are beautiful.

Hays is a different cat as he's flashed good command of the strike zone at times too as part of his tease.