2021 Orioles #7 Prospect - Kyle Stowers - RF

[ChosenOne21]

Should have realized Tony is more optimistic on Stowers than I am (not that I don't like him or anything). I had him #8. Oh well, I guess Westburg is probably next

[Tony-OH]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony, I’m curious about something.  
 

You talk about how it can come down to who would you rather have in the organization.

Does this mean you would rather have Stowers vs Kjerstad or is it simply the unknown of Kjerstad causing you to hold him back?

 

It's very close but because of the total unknowns around Kjerstad, yes, I'd rather have Stowers who I've seen play well at a high level with the top of the chart power. 

That was one of the reasons I asked that question about if Kjerstad had the season Stowers had, even with the strikeouts, where would have be ranked nationally? 

If you would have told me Kjerstad played this year (grant it he would be 22 vs 23) and put up the numbers Stowers had, he's probably be ranked number 3 or 4 due to his pedigree coming in. Now Stowers doesn't have that pedigree, even in college so this was a huge leap for him. 

I love the fact that he hits the ball harder than anyone EV wise and he will take a walk, so it's not like we're talking Mountcastle here. 

Of all the guys I ranked, he's the one where my inner voice tells me I'm being too cautious with him at 7, but when you take risk, upside, age and success of the guys ahead of him, I just felt like this was the place for him. I was already more aggressive on Mayo than anyone will be so maybe that was the reason I kinda was more cautious with Stowers. 

It all makes sense in my head when I do it! lol 

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Should have realized Tony is more optimistic on Stowers than I am (not that I don't like him or anything). I had him #8. Oh well, I guess Westburg is probably next

Having a player of Westburg's quality still on the board at #8 certainly speaks to the depth of this top 9.

[Ruzious]

I guess I'm not as optimistic after seeing someone who had similar SO issues - Travis Demeritte - fail to make it.  But Travis had an even more all or nothing approach at the plate - where it was too obvious that he was going for homers, so maybe my comparison was off.    

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's very close but because of the total unknowns around Kjerstad, yes, I'd rather have Stowers who I've seen play well at a high level with the top of the chart power. 

That was one of the reasons I asked that question about if Kjerstad had the season Stowers had, even with the strikeouts, where would have be ranked nationally? 

If you would have told me Kjerstad played this year (grant it he would be 22 vs 23) and put up the numbers Stowers had, he's probably be ranked number 3 or 4 due to his pedigree coming in. Now Stowers doesn't have that pedigree, even in college so this was a huge leap for him. 

I love the fact that he hits the ball harder than anyone EV wise and he will take a walk, so it's not like we're talking Mountcastle here. 

Of all the guys I ranked, he's the one where my inner voice tells me I'm being too cautious with him at 7, but when you take risk, upside, age and success of the guys ahead of him, I just felt like this was the place for him. I was already more aggressive on Mayo than anyone will be so maybe that was the reason I kinda was more cautious with Stowers. 

It all makes sense in my head when I do it! lol 

Did you ever consider Strowers over Cowser?

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's very close but because of the total unknowns around Kjerstad, yes, I'd rather have Stowers who I've seen play well at a high level with the top of the chart power. 

That was one of the reasons I asked that question about if Kjerstad had the season Stowers had, even with the strikeouts, where would have be ranked nationally? 

If you would have told me Kjerstad played this year (grant it he would be 22 vs 23) and put up the numbers Stowers had, he's probably be ranked number 3 or 4 due to his pedigree coming in. Now Stowers doesn't have that pedigree, even in college so this was a huge leap for him. 

I love the fact that he hits the ball harder than anyone EV wise and he will take a walk, so it's not like we're talking Mountcastle here. 

Of all the guys I ranked, he's the one where my inner voice tells me I'm being too cautious with him at 7, but when you take risk, upside, age and success of the guys ahead of him, I just felt like this was the place for him. I was already more aggressive on Mayo than anyone will be so maybe that was the reason I kinda was more cautious with Stowers. 

It all makes sense in my head when I do it! lol 

Hmmm, Kjerstad over Westburg for #8.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

That’s a pretty positive take on Stowers.    Can’t really disagree with anything you said.   I think his future as a major leaguer boils down to whether he can keep his K rate down to a reasonable level once he’s facing major league pitching.    

I didn't really go into it in detail, but here's why I'm not overly concerned about the K's.

Stowers swings and misses a lot. There's no denying this and this includes pitches in the zone that he swings through. No one swings harder on just about every pitch. 

Saying all that, he actually takes some pretty good at bats despite the miss and can make adjustments within games. He's no a pure hacker swinging at pitches all over the place, he's just a guy who looks to have taken the theory that is you swing really, really hard, you may miss pitches, but you also are going to do some damage when you do it the ball. 

Stowers BABIIPs were high at all three levels he played, and some may say that he was lucky, but I think it's because he hits the ball so damn hard that he does a lot of damage when he connects. His HR/FB% at 30.4% and 28.8% in A and AA are off the charts. Rutschman's was at 16.8% in AA for comparison. Henderson was at 25.8% in Delmarva but dropped to 13.2% at Aberdeen where Stowers put up an otherworldly 30.4%.

Now Stowers is three years older than Henderson which is why Henderson is above him, but for damage done once the ball is hit, nobody touches Stowers. 

The only question I have is will he get even better once he understands what pitchers are doing to him and he learns to lay off pitches he can't hit OR will major league pitchers be able to consistently beat him with the holes in his swing and he ends up a low BA guy with pop?

I don't think any player in the Orioles system in my mind made a bigger jump into becoming a potential impact player at the major league level than Stowers did. I may have undercut his ceiling in the rankings but I'd like to see him really hammer AAA pitching before getting too high on him which is why he's where's he's at in the rankings. 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hmmm, Kjerstad over Westburg for #8.

I didn't say Westburg wasn't vey close either. lol 

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Did you ever consider Strowers over Cowser?

I did look at those two but Cowser has such a great hit tool, can run and defend better and Cowser is two years younger. Obviously they are completely different players power wise, but if Cowser can develop Markakis like power, he's a very good bet to become a very good major league player for a long time if he stays healthy.

 

[NCRaven]

Tony, you’re flat out wrong on this one.  Camden Yards is more cosy than comfy.  Other than that, thanks for the write up and the work that went into it.

[Philip]

Man, I even missed number one… I’m curious about the strike out rate. On the one hand, minor league Pitching is not as good as MLB guys, So one would assume his K rate to get worse. On the other hand, Tony said that he can make in game adjustments, And get a hit after seeing a pitcher a couple of times. And that suggests that Familiarity will bring down the strike out rate.

We shall see. As long as his best comp is not DJ Stewart, I’m OK

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I didn't really go into it in detail, but here's why I'm not overly concerned about the K's.

Stowers swings and misses a lot. There's no denying this and this includes pitches in the zone that he swings through. No one swings harder on just about every pitch. 

Saying all that, he actually takes some pretty good at bats despite the miss and can make adjustments within games. He's no a pure hacker swinging at pitches all over the place, he's just a guy who looks to have taken the theory that is you swing really, really hard, you may miss pitches, but you also are going to do some damage when you do it the ball. 

Stowers BABIIPs were high at all three levels he played, and some may say that he was lucky, but I think it's because he hits the ball so damn hard that he does a lot of damage when he connects. His HR/FB% at 30.4% and 28.8% in A and AA are off the charts. Rutschman's was at 16.8% in AA for comparison. Henderson was at 25.8% in Delmarva but dropped to 13.2% at Aberdeen where Stowers put up an otherworldly 30.4%.

Now Stowers is three years older than Henderson which is why Henderson is above him, but for damage done once the ball is hit, nobody touches Stowers. 

The only question I have is will he get even better once he understands what pitchers are doing to him and he learns to lay off pitches he can't hit OR will major league pitchers be able to consistently beat him with the holes in his swing and he ends up a low BA guy with pop?

I don't think any player in the Orioles system in my mind made a bigger jump into becoming a potential impact player at the major league level than Stowers did. I may have undercut his ceiling in the rankings but I'd like to see him really hammer AAA pitching before getting too high on him which is why he's where's he's at in the rankings. 

Thanks for the detailed explanation, Tony.   I appreciate that Stowers is actually a pretty selective hitter despite the strikeouts.   In that respect, he reminds me of Mark Reynolds, who owned a .236/.328/.453 slash line in the majors after posting .277/.358/.517 in the minors (Stowers slashed .278/.383/.514 this year).   For me, Stowers’ success boils down to whether he can avoid having his K rate slip much further when he’s up against major league pitching.   It’s just like you said in the “what we don’t know” section of your evaluation: “He does swing harder than anyone else and occasionally will actually fall down after a swing so there is still questions whether major league pitching, with it’s upper velocity and good offspeed combination, will give him trouble.”   That’s what we need to find out.   

Let’s say he was Mark Reynolds, with average RF defense.  Wouid that be so bad?
 

[Just Regular]

He is going to be the one that puts flesh on the bones of maxEV's for us.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2021&position=&team=&min=q&sort=5&sortDir=desc

Looking at this year's list, a name that hit me on first skim that might be a really nice outcome is 2021 Jorge Soler.   Obviously the hitters who can pair monster EVs with better contact/barrel rates are baseball's best players.   Soler and Schoop are the Top 20 guys here who flash big, but the good contact is intermittent enough they are more okay, not great.   I do hope Stowers will beat Soler's career to date 3.5 rWAR (career line is 246/331/465 maybe a benchmark what a fielder as bad as Soler needs to keep ~1.0 WAR/650).    I am prepared for "bad Soler" stretches as he acclimates, and believe his glove should be waaay better.

Loved the Kit Keller call.   Before Stowers played his way on to the map, Adley stood out to me as the only Born 1998/Age-24 2022 in our group.  Stowers is basically his twin there though.   We'll be lucky if Adley is the player Dottie Hansen was (both Oregonians!).

 

[LookinUp]

So are we predicting that Stowers is the first guy to hit the warehouse in a game? Or will Neustrom beat him to it?

[Just Regular]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter-team&year=2021&position=&team=&min=q&sort=4&sortDir=asc

Last year's team results sorted worst to first by maxEV...the Orioles were one of just six teams where no one touched 115.

I've been trying to digest what numbers are good/bad as they are all in the 110's (except Giancarlo), and dawning on me the last digit tracks okay with where in the 90's a pitcher's fastball can touch.

You can touch 95...ha, John Means must be your staff ace.   You can touch 100...now we're talking the Grayson/Giancarlo things.

So come on Orioles...can we get past this "by a lot" tease?   Did Kyle Stowers hit a ball 114, 116 or 118?    The buzz makes it sound like something we should be proud of, and I saw one in Bowie that just plain sounded different.

Ryan Mountcastle did A, only 28 of ~400 MLB'ers with 100 BBE's did B, and only the Top 5 did C.