Top Ten Prospects-Positions

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which teams would you say have a surplus of quality pitching?

There is no such thing.  

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There is no such thing.  

Exactly.

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Exactly.

There are teams that need hitting more than pitching though.   Overall, I’d say pitching brings back a lot in trade.   I don’t buy the logic that says, “twice as many drafted hitters succeed as drafted pitchers, so draft hitters and then trade one for an equally successful pitcher.”  It doesn’t work that way.   If it’s twice as hard to develop a successful pitcher, then you are going to have to trade two successful hitters to get one pitcher.    

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

There are teams that need hitting more than pitching though.   Overall, I’d say pitching brings back a lot in trade.   I don’t buy the logic that says, “twice as many drafted hitters succeed as drafted pitchers, so draft hitters and then trade one for an equally successful pitcher.”  It doesn’t work that way.   If it’s twice as hard to develop a successful pitcher, then you are going to have to trade two successful hitters to get one pitcher.    

That’s exactly right, but I think Mike is aware of that, and that may be why he’s creating a vast quantity of competent outfielders, so that he can send off a couple of them, along with an infield flyer, for somebody worth having. Tampa is good at creating pitching quality, and I don’t know whether Cleveland is good at it or just has some right now, but they certainly need an outfielder or two, so, although you are correct, I think that need is being factored into the equation.

[Pickles]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

There are teams that need hitting more than pitching though.   Overall, I’d say pitching brings back a lot in trade.   I don’t buy the logic that says, “twice as many drafted hitters succeed as drafted pitchers, so draft hitters and then trade one for an equally successful pitcher.”  It doesn’t work that way.   If it’s twice as hard to develop a successful pitcher, then you are going to have to trade two successful hitters to get one pitcher.    

It also isn't solely about "need."

It's also about the teams' current location in the win cycle.

The Orioles "needed" pitching when they traded Erik Bedard.  Ditto the Tigers and Verlander.  The Royals and Grienke.  Etc.

[now]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

There are teams that need hitting more than pitching though.   Overall, I’d say pitching brings back a lot in trade.   I don’t buy the logic that says, “twice as many drafted hitters succeed as drafted pitchers, so draft hitters and then trade one for an equally successful pitcher.”  It doesn’t work that way.   If it’s twice as hard to develop a successful pitcher, then you are going to have to trade two successful hitters to get one pitcher.    

While your conclusion might have internal logic, I don't think it works that way in real life. In development, I agree hitters are twice as likely to make it. When it comes to trades, it's more the case that proven hitters and proven hitters are deemed equal and swapped one-for-one.

Of course, both your conclusion and mine are speculative without further evidence and analysis!

[Frobby]

On 11/6/2021 at 10:19 AM, now said:

While your conclusion might have internal logic, I don't think it works that way in real life. In development, I agree hitters are twice as likely to make it. When it comes to trades, it's more the case that proven hitters and proven hitters are deemed equal and swapped one-for-one.

Of course, both your conclusion and mine are speculative without further evidence and analysis!

Well, my hypothetical was based on the argument that it’s twice as easy to develop a hitter as a pitcher.   I don’t think that premise is necessarily correct, though it might be.

[now]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, my hypothetical was based on the argument that it’s twice as easy to develop a hitter as a pitcher.   I don’t think that premise is necessarily correct, though it might be.

I agree with that premise (as a rough guess) but I don't think most GMs do the same calculation when it comes to a trade. I think they're more likely to trade a 2 WAR hitter for a 2 WAR pitcher. But even then the pitcher is less valuable in future (more risky). So instead of trading your two hitters for one pitcher, you can keep one and trade one. And even then you'd be better off, and justified in demanding two pitchers in return for your one hitter. But most GMs, I believe, would settle for a one-for-one swap. I guess the real grail of value is to identify the truly "proven durable" pitcher (if such a thing exists... unlike the TINSTAAPP).

[Just Regular]

Pitching inventory wise, I feel like the inventory that will be relevant one of these days for the Orioles is the good pitcher marooned on a busted team.    Most years a couple dozen teams try, and compete in the offseason for good players; anywhere from a few to a half dozen of those teams it doesn't work out, and then the Verlander, Scherzer, Berrios type deal happens...you just have to pay the Going Rate in talent and/or payroll.

[jamalshw]

I think the most interesting part of Elias' philosophy in drafting isn't the obvious preference for hitters early, it's the run on pitching late. We'll throw out 2020 because it was just five rounds (though they did take Baumer at the end and added a few non-drafted signees), but in 2019, they took their first pitcher in the eighth round with Griffin Mclarty and then took 18 pitchers in the next 24 picks. He filled several picks with mostly young bats who largely didn't sign. 

Then, in 2021, we saw a pitcher in the 5th round, but the second didn't come until round 11, but of the last 10 picks in the draft 8 were pitchers. 

We haven't seen much success from the late round pitchers (of course any late round player doesn't yield much success), but with the quantity, I wonder if we find some middle relievers, swing guys to at least cheaply fill the lower pressure roles to open up resources ($$ and prospects) to be used to secure a couple key guys in the rotation and back-end of the pen. 

[interloper]

37 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I think the most interesting part of Elias' philosophy in drafting isn't the obvious preference for hitters early, it's the run on pitching late. We'll throw out 2020 because it was just five rounds (though they did take Baumer at the end and added a few non-drafted signees), but in 2019, they took their first pitcher in the eighth round with Griffin Mclarty and then took 18 pitchers in the next 24 picks. He filled several picks with mostly young bats who largely didn't sign. 

Then, in 2021, we saw a pitcher in the 5th round, but the second didn't come until round 11, but of the last 10 picks in the draft 8 were pitchers. 

We haven't seen much success from the late round pitchers (of course any late round player doesn't yield much success), but with the quantity, I wonder if we find some middle relievers, swing guys to at least cheaply fill the lower pressure roles to open up resources ($$ and prospects) to be used to secure a couple key guys in the rotation and back-end of the pen. 

I'm really, really curious about the strategy for this upcoming draft. 

[now]

On 11/7/2021 at 9:46 PM, now said:

 I guess the real grail of value is to identify the truly "proven durable" pitcher (if such a thing exists... 

Seems the BJ's just found one: 

Quote

"José Berríos... one of the game’s most reliable young starters.... Even at his age, he already had six seasons of MLB experience -- a track record worth betting on.... Berríos’ career stats as one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball.... all of Berríos’ data suggests that he’ll continue to be exactly who he has been."

Of course, the price was two top prospects (Martin, SS & Woods, RHP). Comparable, perhaps, to Cowser and Bradish?

[jabba72]

On 11/8/2021 at 12:57 PM, interloper said:

I'm really, really curious about the strategy for this upcoming draft. 

Well, his track record suggest it will be hitter heavy. I just hope a top tier pitching prospect sticks out one of these years.