MLBTR: Can We Get Excited About the Orioles Yet?

[Sports Guy]

Yea, his name has been mentioned.  It’s a good thought and a higher upside move than the bs that is routinely talked about on here.

But it won’t happen.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

One idea floated in this article is trading for Paul DeJong, who the article compares to JJ Hardy.   DeJong is under a long term contract that pays 2/$15.3 mm in 2022-23 and then has team options at $12.5 mm and $15 mm in ‘24-25.   

DeJong had a down year in 2021, .197/.284/.390 in .113 games, good for 1.6 rWAR.   For his career, he’s at .241/.312/.443, 12.9 rWAR.   He’ll only be 28 years old next season, but the arc of his career has kind of been pointing south: his year by year OPS’s have been .857, .746, .752, .671, .674.    It is suggested that it would not take much in return to acquire DeJong.   

So, is there any merit to this idea?

No,  Westburg maybe in the majors before 2022 is over. Certainly in 2023.

[interloper]

One of the better-written overviews of the current state of the Orioles. MLBTR does good stuff. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

No,  Westburg maybe in the majors before 2022 is over. Certainly in 2023.

I’ll be very surprised if Westburg is in the majors at any point in 2022.    I’d certainly hope to see him in 2023.    I don’t think that necessarily impacts a decision on DeJong, however.   We have three holes in our infield and Westburg can fill one when he’s ready regardless of whether DeJong is here.  And, we also can trade DeJong away when our prospects are ready.   

I’m not necessarily advocating that we pursue DeJong, but I don’t think Westburg is a reason not to do it.
 

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ll be very surprised if Westburg is in the majors at any point in 2022.    I’d certainly hope to see him in 2023.    I don’t think that necessarily impacts a decision on DeJong, however.   We have three holes in our infield and Westburg can fill one when he’s ready regardless of whether DeJong is here.  And, we also can trade DeJong away when our prospects are ready.   

I’m not necessarily advocating that we pursue DeJong, but I don’t think Westburg is a reason not to do it.
 

I like the idea. I wouldn't want to fill all our spots with Dejong/Iglesias/Harrison types but at least one would probably leave enough opportunities for Urias/Mateo. The Hardy comp is interesting. Dejong even has a decent walk rate compared to JJ. That said, I don't really know why St. Louis trades him. He played over 100 games for them and their highest SS prospect is not due until 2024.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I like the idea. I wouldn't want to fill all our spots with Dejong/Iglesias/Harrison types but at least one would probably leave enough opportunities for Urias/Mateo. The Hardy comp is interesting. Dejong even has a decent walk rate compared to JJ. That said, I don't really know why St. Louis trades him. He played over 100 games for them and their highest SS prospect is not due until 2024.

Yeah, I’m not sure why MLBTR thought DeJong would be available.   

[wildcard]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ll be very surprised if Westburg is in the majors at any point in 2022.    I’d certainly hope to see him in 2023.    I don’t think that necessarily impacts a decision on DeJong, however.   We have three holes in our infield and Westburg can fill one when he’s ready regardless of whether DeJong is here.  And, we also can trade DeJong away when our prospects are ready.   

I’m not necessarily advocating that we pursue DeJong, but I don’t think Westburg is a reason not to do it.
 

Westburg  had a 976 OPS at Bowie in Sept.  If  he does that in April in Bowie he will be Norfolk in May.  A few months of hitting well a AAA gets him called up to the O's.   I think now that Adley will be with the O's promotions of key prospects happen faster.    Kind of put the future in place and let them play together.  If the CBA changes the service time issue there will be no reason to hold Westburg down.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I’m not sure why MLBTR thought DeJong would be available.   

Because there is a lot of talk that the Cards will go hard after one of the big name SS.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Westburg  had a 976 OPS at Bowie in Sept.  If  he does that in April in Bowie he will be Norfolk in May.  A few months of hitting well a AAA gets him called up to the O's.   I think now that Adley will be with the O's promotions of key prospects happen faster.    Kind of put the future in place and let them play together.  If the CBA changes the service time issue there will be no reason to hold Westburg down.

I am seeing .929 at Bowie in September, not .976.   Either way, I agree he’d probably get promoted to Norfolk before June 1 if he did that at the start of next year.  But let’s not forget that his overall OPS at Bowie was .752 and we should not just assume that in 2022 he’ll start the year as hot as he was over three weeks at the end of the year.   If he does it, great.   

Once he gets to Norfolk, we’ll see how it goes.   Neustrom went from .831 at Bowie to .748 at Norfolk; Stowers went from .938 to .773.    Rutschman didn’t have any significant drop, but he’s a horse of a different color.   I’m not going to just assume that Westburg is going to sail through AA/AAA without a hiccup next year.  Honestly, if he puts himself in position for a prompt 2023 promotion to the bigs, I’ll be very satisfied.   

 

[NCRaven]

If DeJong’s rWAR suggests that a player with that batting line is more valuable than Mountcastle, then rWAR is bull, I don’t care how good his glove is.

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

If DeJong’s rWAR suggests that a player with that batting line is more valuable than Mountcastle, then rWAR is bull, I don’t care how good his glove is.

Stick Mountcastle at SS for a week and you will see.

[now]

I'm kind of surprised no one on here (that I've seen) has argued for the idea of a top-tier SS to carry into our window of contention. In other words, the Big Five: Correa, Seager, Story, Baez, Semien (or other 3B/2B) Granted, posing this idea about Lindor, a year or two ago, was premature. What about now? Too early? Too expensive? We won't be ready soon enough? You like Westburg, Henderson, etc. too much to block? The Big Five are overrated? They'd never sign here with at least another 1-2 years of losing? I'm remembering how Tejada almost keyed a legitimate contender in 2005, before everything went sideways. And BTW, I'm not committed to this idea, either, just a little puzzled as to why it's not even considered (espec. after the article leading this thread hinted at it).

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, now said:

I'm kind of surprised no one on here (that I've seen) has argued for the idea of a top-tier SS to carry into our window of contention. In other words, the Big Five: Correa, Seager, Story, Baez, Semien (or other 3B/2B) Granted, posing this idea about Lindor, a year or two ago, was premature. What about now? Too early? Too expensive? We won't be ready soon enough? You like Westburg, Henderson, etc. too much to block? The Big Five are overrated? They'd never sign here with at least another 1-2 years of losing? I'm remembering how Tejada almost keyed a legitimate contender in 2005, before everything went sideways. And BTW, I'm not committed to this idea, either, just a little puzzled as to why it's not even considered (espec. after the article leading this thread hinted at it).

I think Elias is following the Tampa model and offering 5 years for an expensive free agent does not fit that model.  Especially with Westburg and Henderson coming in a year or so.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Elias is following the Tampa model and offering 5 years for an expensive free agent does not fit that model.  Especially with Westburg and Henderson coming in a year or so.

Elias isn’t following anyone’s model.

[Just Regular]

Edmundo Sosa took DeJong's job in September, and was the Cardinals SS starter for most of the long winning streak, until he got plunked on 9/24.   He only got a few at-bats in the last couple games after missing about a week, but was still their choice to start the wildcard game.