I'm already over this offseason.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Stephen Matz was the straw that broke the camel's back?  Did not see that coming.  

 

Managements plan should be to plan a winning run around player X & player Y's service time?  Seems like a poor long term strategy.  

 

I fail to see how this team could be so exciting in 2022, even with the addition of 2-3 solid FA signings.   This team is historically terrible and has 6-8 massive holes that need to be filled.  Grayson and Adley are more than likely to come to the majors and struggle.  If you are expecting them to dominate day 1, then you are setting yourself up for more disappointment than missing out on Stephan Matz. 

It’s not difficult for this team to put together an exciting, developing team for 75M or less.

There are plenty of guys out there that you could get for pennies on the dollar, free agents that you could sign, trades that you could make and put this team in way better position.  They still may struggle to be 500 but that’s ok.  You can be exciting and still only win 75ish games.  The young guys still need to get experience, learn to win, etc..there will be growing pains with that and that will hurt the win total early.

But when You have elite young talent, wasting their early years because of greed is stupid on every level.

[owknows]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Just wait until those guys are up and they still don't spend.

If they managed to get a full complement of 5 WAR ballplayers through the system... and are contending...  Why is that a bad thing?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

If they managed to get a full complement of 5 WAR ballplayers through the system... and are contending...  Why is that a bad thing?

Sure, if they manage to do something never done before, they won’t need to spend.

[LookinUp]

This just in: the Orioles don't plan to spend until it aligns well with playoff odds. I'm not sure how much more complaining people can do. Either way, you have to accept it.

I'd get it if people made the case that Matz (and similar changes) puts us into position to where spending for playoffs makes sense. That's an interesting discussion, but the whining about the strategy is a futile emotional reaction to the stated plan.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

This just in: the Orioles don't plan to spend until it aligns well with playoff odds. I'm not sure how much more complaining people can do. Either way, you have to accept it.

I'd get it if people made the case that Matz (and similar changes) puts us into position to where spending for playoffs makes sense. That's an interesting discussion, but the whining about the strategy is a futile emotional reaction to the stated plan.

Yea, you are right.  We should just discuss how great things are and how super exciting it is to have the top ranked farm system.  The amount of wins that stuff is adding is great!!

[owknows]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Sure, if they manage to do something never done before, they won’t need to spend.

I think there's a pretty healthy approach evolving for midmarket teams. The intent being to develop a sustainable farm. Graduate quality players into the Majors. Play them for their value years of control. Trade them for replenishment of the farm before their value is beyond your budget. Lather, rinse, repeat.

You and others have made it clear that you don't think much of this strategy. You suggest that you'd prefer to spend money on veteran players. And that large contracts which don't pan out have no negative impact on the team's ability to win.

I disagree.

You also suggest that this strategy is unprecedented.

I would disagree here as well.

Teams employing the Tampa model should certainly be looking at FA resources as they get into competitive mode. But they would in my opinion be wise to avoid big contracts and long contracts.

And should certainly stay their hand until a FA acquisition has the potential to impact post-season prospects.

You are certainly free to disagree. But it's going to take more than hyperbole to persuade otherwise.

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not difficult for this team to put together an exciting, developing team for 75M or less.

There are plenty of guys out there that you could get for pennies on the dollar, free agents that you could sign, trades that you could make and put this team in way better position.  They still may struggle to be 500 but that’s ok.  You can be exciting and still only win 75ish games.  The young guys still need to get experience, learn to win, etc..there will be growing pains with that and that will hurt the win total early.

But when You have elite young talent, wasting their early years because of greed is stupid on every level.

The Orioles have One (1) SP that is a solid major league contributor.  They need at least five(5) more SPs, a SS, a 2b, & a 3B.  Not to mention they need BP help.

 

The Orioles payroll is somewhere around 40MM right now.  If they spend ~25-30MM on FA signings (or trade for players with a higher salary) that gets them about 3-4 wins @ ~8MM per win.  

 

I don't see how this team can approach 75 wins next year. 

 

Perhaps IF 3-4 players come up from the minors this year and show that they CAN be solid contributors and CAN fill 3 to 4 of the 6 to 8 massive holes, then spending 25-35mm next year might be solid strategy.  Especially considering that in 2023 there should be 3-4 additional promotions from the minor league level.  

 

Spending cash this year does not seem like the prudent move.  

[waroriole]

52 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

We are angry that a guy who will pitch this season at the age of 31.  The same guy that had an ERA of almost 10 the year before.  The same guy that in the last 5 years his best three seasons has an ERA of just over 4 and in his two bad seasons an Era of 6.08 and 9.68.    He basically is at Bruce Zimmerman level at 10 million more a season.  

The 2020 season is clearly an outlier, and the smallest sample size. He was good in 2018, 2019, and 2021. 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, owknows said:

I think there's a pretty healthy approach evolving for midmarket teams. The intent being to develop a sustainable farm. Graduate quality players into the Majors. Play them for their value years of control. Trade them for replenishment of the farm before their value is beyond your budget. Lather, rinse, repeat.

You and others have made it clear that you don't think much of this strategy. You suggest that you'd prefer to spend money on veteran players. And that large contracts which don't pan out have no negative impact on the team's ability to win.

I disagree.

You also suggest that this strategy is unprecedented.

I would disagree here as well.

Teams employing the Tampa model should certainly be looking at FA resources as they get into competitive mode. But they would in my opinion be wise to avoid big contracts and long contracts.

And should certainly stay their hand until a FA acquisition has the potential to impact post-season prospects.

You are certainly free to disagree. But it's going to take more than hyperbole to persuade otherwise.

You are completely misrepresenting my position on what I want done..by a wide margin.  
 

And btw, the strategy I said doesn’t work is when you talked about developing a full complement of 5 WAR guys.  That never happens..ever.

Unless by full complement, you mean 2-3 players.  No one is developing a team full of 5 WAR players.

[Yardball85]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Matz to the Cardinals, 4 years/44 million.

That's Ubaldo money. That's Cobb money.  That's a contract this team easily could have afforded.  Even if they had to pay a little extra because we suck and the Cardinals don't, they could have gotten him.  

Yep, I'm already over this offseason, as usual there's no aggressive moves, no targeted list of players they want to go after and make offers to.  As usual, it'll be table scraps come mid February when we're looking around to see who hasn't signed and is desperate to land somewhere.  It's as plain as day to me that this franchise is going to wait until AR, G-Rod, Hall and whoever else is up before they spend anything.  

 

Agreed.  Whether we like it or not (no one likes it), this team is addicted to dumpster diving and signing the Matt Harveys of the world uNtIl wE aRe ReAdy.  It sucks.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

The Orioles have One (1) SP that is a solid major league contributor.  They need at least five(5) more SPs, a SS, a 2b, & a 3B.  Not to mention they need BP help.

 

The Orioles payroll is somewhere around 40MM right now.  If they spend ~25-30MM on FA signings (or trade for players with a higher salary) that gets them about 3-4 wins @ ~8MM per win.  

 

I don't see how this team can approach 75 wins next year. 

 

Perhaps IF 3-4 players come up from the minors this year and show that they CAN be solid contributors and CAN fill 3 to 4 of the 6 to 8 massive holes, then spending 25-35mm next year might be solid strategy.  Especially considering that in 2023 there should be 3-4 additional promotions from the minor league level.  

 

Spending cash this year does not seem like the prudent move.  

Not all improvement has to be or would be done simply by “spending cash”.  Trades, signings, internal improvements, etc…there are lots of ways to do it.

Let me put it another way..if you believe in the young talent this team has, you should expect significant improvement in 2022 (relative to 2021) without doing anything else.  The more moves you make, the more improvement you will have.

[Yardball85]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Not all improvement has to be or would be done simply by “spending cash”.  Trades, signings, internal improvements, etc…there are lots of ways to do it.

Let me put it another way..if you believe in the young talent this team has, you should expect significant improvement in 2022 (relative to 2021) without doing anything else.  The more moves you make, the more improvement you will have.

Right.  It does not have to be signing Matz for four years 44.  I would've been lukewarm about that at best.  But do something, be creative.  I like Elias, I really do, but he has shown no ability whatsoever, in the slightest, to be creative in improving the MLB team. 

[Yardball85]

Can't wait till we sign Tommy Millone and talk about his veteran presence and his "familiarity with Baltimore" as pros to bringing him in.

[Hank Scorpio]

Maybe Matz wants no part of playing here. I think you need to demonstrate for the market that this is going to work first (at least a little bit.) 

[Just Regular]

I think there is going to be a line between "wasting" 0.x/6.x Adley/Grayson seasons, and not wasting 1.x/6.x seasons if they justify it (and heaven help us if they can't play).

But the basic rule of any cromulent pitcher and that same guy 12 months from now is they could be hurt, so laying 3/33 on 2023-2025 Matz this week is a move I can live with passing.   I am also pretty sure some Matz equivalent will have a good 2022 and then want four years.

The Orioles will also gain a view if the CBA does anything about pitching carousels - if not, Kyle Bradish 50 pitches at a time and Evan Phillips 15 pitches at a time will get to continue putting David Prices and Steven Matzes on the sidelines when teams care about winning.

Several of the SP's just below Eduardo on the various Top 50 Free Agent guesses (DeScla, Matz, one or both of A. Wood/A.Cobb to SFG probably) are finding homes, with Kikuchi/Kluber/T. Anderson/Greinke/Pineda/K. Kim left.   My guess for if Elias finds a Means offer to his liking is if anyone values him like the J. Gray/Stroman/Rodon next tick up.