Baseballtradevalues.com: Rutschman worth $83 mm in trade value

[Frobby]

On 11/30/2021 at 3:06 PM, Frobby said:

Reading about a trade involving the Pirates’ catcher, I came across this website baseballtradevalues.com.   Don’t really know their methodology, but they assign a dollar value to every player.   Here’s the top of the O’s list:

Rutschman 83.1 mm/145.9

Mullins 66.2/36.2

Rodriguez 62.9/51.9

Means 39.6/4.5

Hall 32.6/25.4

Mountcastle 32.3/21.0

Hays 22.0/19.5

Henderson 21.8/86.2

Cowser 20.6/25.0

Stowers 14.0/8.4

Westburg 14.0/15.8

Thought it would be interesting to see how these players are valued by this site a year later.  YE 2022 numbers added above after the slash.  Others on the current “most valuable Oriole properties” list:

Holliday 38.5

Bautista 23.8

Baker 14.7

Ortiz 13.4

Bradish 13.2

Mayo 13.2

Urias 10.9

 

[Just Regular]

Big moves wise, their guess is Gunnar's supernova (+65mm) about twice as good as Means' TJ (-35mm) was bad.

Their +145.9 Adley number still was calculated with 6 years of control, which I believe RoY has reduced to 5, so I expect that number to drop by about 10% when what might have been his Arb4 2028 gets taken out of their calculation.

Orioles Player Development - can you grow Coby Mayo plus another +65mm?     Hopefully some of those folks got nice Christmas bonuses this year.

[MarCakes21]

Looked up Mateo.  3.2 in excess value. This is kinda why I think trade him.  His excess value per this is only 3.2.  I think you can make up for it with Gunnar at SS, Urias at 3B, and Westburg at 2B.  With Ortiz and Norby waiting as next man up.

Edited December 11, 2022 by MarCakes21
Added value of Mateo

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

Looked up Mateo.  3.2 in excess value. This is kinda why I think trade him.  His excess value per this is only 3.2.  I think you can make up for it with Gunnar at SS, Urias at 3B, and Westburg at 2B.  With Ortiz and Norby waiting as next man up.

Or trade Urias with Gunnar at 3B. Keep Mateo around as versatile backup. I prefer to keep Mateo as stopgap SS to enable Gunnar to play 3B, especially if you think Ortiz can be a starter and/or Holliday will stay at SS.

I definitely think you don't need Urias and Mateo in any scenario. One of them should go, whether in a package for a SP or in exchange for a bullpen arm etc.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

Looked up Mateo.  3.2 in excess value. This is kinda why I think trade him.  His excess value per this is only 3.2.  I think you can make up for it with Gunnar at SS, Urias at 3B, and Westburg at 2B.  With Ortiz and Norby waiting as next man up.

Of course, at $3.2 mm excess value, he won’t bring back much, either.  Frankly I think this site undervalues him.  

[BRobinsonfan]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Or trade Urias with Gunnar at 3B. Keep Mateo around as versatile backup. I prefer to keep Mateo as stopgap SS to enable Gunnar to play 3B, especially if you think Ortiz can be a starter and/or Holliday will stay at SS.

I definitely think you don't need Urias and Mateo in any scenario. One of them should go, whether in a package for a SP or in exchange for a bullpen arm etc.

I wish they would send Mateo to the Anthony Santander School of Learning to Take a Walk.  If he added 32 points to his OBP just think how many more bases he could steal and runs he could score.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

I wish they would send Mateo to the Anthony Santander School of Learning to Take a Walk.  If he added 32 points to his OBP just think how many more bases he could steal and runs he could score.  

5.6

4.7

6.1

5.3

8.5

I'm not sold on the curriculum.  Last year was promising but let's see if he can sustain it as he hasn't in the past.

For the record, resident whipping boy Ryan Mountcastle has a career BB% of 7.1.

 

[Sanity Check]

The problem with the "trade Mateo" and "trade Urias", and even the "trade Hays or Mountcastle" scenarios is that somebody else has to really want them.  Unless there are teams calling the Orioles begging for these guys, what value will we really get if they are not "wanted" by some other team?  It' s not like Elias picks up the phone and says, "hey, we're looking to trade these guys, what will you give us?".  I just don't think it works that way.  

And, if that's where we are, no one on this board will be happy with the return we get for any of them, Gold Glove or not.  So, we would basically have to give them away.

If any teams are calling us about players that WE HAVE that will IMPROVE their teams, I would bet they are asking about the likes of Santander, Bautista, Henderson, Rutschman, Grayson, maybe Mullins and then looking at the farm.  I seriously doubt teams are eagerly considering Hayes, Mateo, Urias, or Mountcastle as serious upgrades to their rosters, and I think that's why we will see all of these guys again this year in spring training.  The only way to move some of these guys is part of a bigger package, and that's assuming the other team is willing to take them.  No one wants to clog their 40-man rosters with our cast-offs.

[MarCakes21]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Of course, at $3.2 mm excess value, he won’t bring back much, either.  Frankly I think this site undervalues him.  

I think some other team will value him at more.  They talk about a link to FG, is that the projection tool they use?  What system do they use for WAR?

[Sports Guy]

Such a bad site 

[waroriole]

23 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

The problem with the "trade Mateo" and "trade Urias", and even the "trade Hays or Mountcastle" scenarios is that somebody else has to really want them.  Unless there are teams calling the Orioles begging for these guys, what value will we really get if they are not "wanted" by some other team?  It' s not like Elias picks up the phone and says, "hey, we're looking to trade these guys, what will you give us?".  I just don't think it works that way.  

And, if that's where we are, no one on this board will be happy with the return we get for any of them, Gold Glove or not.  So, we would basically have to give them away.

If any teams are calling us about players that WE HAVE that will IMPROVE their teams, I would bet they are asking about the likes of Santander, Bautista, Henderson, Rutschman, Grayson, maybe Mullins and then looking at the farm.  I seriously doubt teams are eagerly considering Hayes, Mateo, Urias, or Mountcastle as serious upgrades to their rosters, and I think that's why we will see all of these guys again this year in spring training.  The only way to move some of these guys is part of a bigger package, and that's assuming the other team is willing to take them.  No one wants to clog their 40-man rosters with our cast-offs.

There’s a lot of truth here. Right now teams are still looking to address holes through FA. There’s some hope that Santander might come in demand if there’s not a better hitter on the FA market. The other guys seem to have more value to us right now than they would return in a trade. I’ve been on the trade Mateo wagon, but if the offer isn’t there let’s take the chance he improves.