What are your expectations and hopes for Anthony Santander this season?

[waroriole]

I think best reasonable case scenario is .280/.330/.500

My expectation is .260/.300/.460

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, it is a bit annoying when people don’t bother to read the OP and just respond to the thread title.   I almost put “and I don’t mean a trade” in the title just to head that off, but the title was pretty long already, so I put it in the first sentence of the OP instead, figuring people would get at least that far.

And by “hope,” I meant realistically.   I think the Trout-clone ship has sailed for Santander (or, more accurately, was never in a position to leave port).   

But whatever.   I’m not offended.   I knew someone would make the trade comment no matter what I did.  
 

Well obviously you hope for the best possible outcome if he’s here.  That goes without saying.

This thread could be totally renamed with “what is your expectation of his health”.  That’s literally the only question worth asking.  If he’s healthy, he will Hit for power and should play solid defense.  
 

We know the OBp will not be that good.

 

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think best reasonable case scenario is .280/.330/.500

My expectation is .260/.300/.460

I agree with both of these outcomes.  If he somehow cracks a .300 OBP, that would be something.

 

[sportsfan8703]

15 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think best reasonable case scenario is .280/.330/.500

My expectation is .260/.300/.460

I think if he DH’d exclusively he’d be closer to the best case scenario. Hopefully, this is the year he’s healthy and puts it together. Even when healthy, I have my doubts about how good his RF defense can be at this point. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree with both of these outcomes.  If he somehow cracks a .300 OBP, that would be something.

 

If he can hit 280 (career average is 248) it will help.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

If he can hit 280 (career average is 248) it will help.

Yeah, the OBP is definitely propped up by his batting average.  

[sportsfan8703]

He’s played in 100 games twice in his 10 year career. Some of that is rookie ball, and the Covid season, but the guy gets hurt every year. He’s someone that could really benefit from DH’ing some. 

[SilverRocket]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

For his career, Santander is a .248/.290/.454 hitter.   Last year, he was at .241/.286/.433.   In his 37 game season in 2020, he was at .261/.315/.575.  

Considering his Rule 5 situation, I would ignore the 2017-18 part of his career numbers when he clearly wasn't major-league ready. The rest of his career is .252/.295/.474 for a .769 OPS. He was pretty visibly hurt last year, but he also doesn't have a history of being healthy.

I would start with his career numbers of around .770 as a baseline, with a hope for .850 if fully healthy and low .700s if he has nagging injuries like he did last year.

[interloper]

18 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Eat a goat. 

You're one of my favorite posters, so this kind of stings to be honest.

I'm just tired of people ignoring the things that are actually written in the threads, especially from the board's top poster in Frobby. Or SG constantly on the attack or bristling at everyone. It's basically his board now, because he just muscles everyone around in every thread and shouts you down without consequence if you say anything. And everyone is ok with that I guess, so I'll just take whatever whack comment is coming my way from him after this and that'll be that. 

[interloper]

20 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Funny how you are talking about discourse and being unfriendly when you are the one doing it..downvoting over something that dumb?  Lol

Practice what you preach.

The downvote button is there for a reason. It was a bad post, it ignored the OP. I wouldn't downvote your baseball opinion, but I'll downvote this kind of thing every time. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, interloper said:

The downvote button is there for a reason. It was a bad post, it ignored the OP. I wouldn't downvote your baseball opinion, but I'll downvote this kind of thing every time. 

You are so rebellious.

[interloper]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You are so rebellious.

How is hoping people follow board etiquette rebellious? 

[Moose Milligan]

44 minutes ago, interloper said:

You're one of my favorite posters, so this kind of stings to be honest.

I'm just tired of people ignoring the things that are actually written in the threads, especially from the board's top poster in Frobby. Or SG constantly on the attack or bristling at everyone. It's basically his board now, because he just muscles everyone around in every thread and shouts you down without consequence if you say anything. And everyone is ok with that I guess, so I'll just take whatever whack comment is coming my way from him after this and that'll be that. 

That was a joke, bud. Relax. 
 

SG can be tough but he’s nowhere what he used to be.  

[Yardball85]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

And I don’t mean, “I hope he’s traded.”   What are your expectations and hopes on the field?

For his career, Santander is a .248/.290/.454 hitter.   Last year, he was at .241/.286/.433.   In his 37 game season in 2020, he was at .261/.315/.575.  

The three projection systems published on BB-ref and Fangraphs to date project as follows:

Marcel: .248/.299/.452

Steamer: .252/.301/.462

ZiPS: .259/.299/.463

All very much in the same ballpark, .751-.763 OPS, a tad above his career .744 mark.   

I can’t really argue with those projections in terms of what I expect.  And of course, you have to assume there’s a significantly higher than average risk of him missing time with injury.   So, if he plays 110+ games with a .751-.763 OPS, I don’t think you can be disappointed with that.  

But, on the other hand, if he gets lucky with his health, I think he could do considerably better.    I really think he was never 100% or close at any point last year, and that affected his offense and perhaps his defense even more so.   I think if he can stay pretty healthy (and I’m not talking about perfection here), it would be reasonable to hope for a .260/.305/.485 type campaign.   I don’t see him matching his .314 ISO from his short 2020 campaign, but he’s got enough power to manage a .225 ISO in my opinion.   

So, I think the most likely scenario is a .750-.760 type season with a good chunk of missed time, but I’m hoping for a relatively healthy, .790ish campaign.   With far improved defense over 2021, when he really seemed slowed by his injuries in the OF.

I hope he can get the OBP up to at least the .330 level, but that might be asking too much.  OPS over .800 would be sufficient. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

You're one of my favorite posters, so this kind of stings to be honest.

I'm just tired of people ignoring the things that are actually written in the threads, especially from the board's top poster in Frobby. Or SG constantly on the attack or bristling at everyone. It's basically his board now, because he just muscles everyone around in every thread and shouts you down without consequence if you say anything. And everyone is ok with that I guess, so I'll just take whatever whack comment is coming my way from him after this and that'll be that. 

First of all, if you feel the need to kiss any posters butt, that’s a personal issue for you.  No one poster is any more valuable or better than another.  Every one here that contributes has value.

Secondly, I’d be willing to bet a lot of money that you have discussed things in threads that weren’t intended to be covered by the threads actual topic…you know, like you are doing in this exact thread.

You talk about board etiquette and then come on this thread airing your personal dirty laundry, as if anyone cares.  Do you think that’s board etiquette?  Or is it different because YOU are doing it?  Do you feel you deserve a double standard to your own personal policy?