Tim Dierkes (MLBTR) thinks Orioles payroll probably $130-160 million by '24.

[Sports Guy]

What you take from the Rays model comments is that Elias wants a consistent pipeline of talent that is drafted, signed and developed at a high level.  That is what the Rays do and that is a model every single team in baseball follows and will try to follow.

The only way he is trying to do exactly what the Rays do is if you believe his payroll will always be sub 75million and that he will never keep his guys (although Wander is certainly disproving that one) and must trade them as soon as they become expensive. Oh and never really sign FAs or at least expensive ones (relatively speaking).

That is where people are missing the boat on the Rays comments.  I think the Angelos family is cheap and bad for the organization but even I don’t believe they will keep the payroll that low long term.  

[wildcard]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What you take from the Rays model comments is that Elias wants a consistent pipeline of talent that is drafted, signed and developed at a high level.  That is what the Rays do and that is a model every single team in baseball follows and will try to follow.

The only way he is trying to do exactly what the Rays do is if you believe his payroll will always be sub 75million and that he will never keep his guys (although Wander is certainly disproving that one) and must trade them as soon as they become expensive. Oh and never really sign FAs or at least expensive ones (relatively speaking).

That is where people are missing the boat on the Rays comments.  I think the Angelos family is cheap and bad for the organization but even I don’t believe they will keep the payroll that low long term.  

Even Tampa signed Charlie Morton  2/30m.

[Sports Guy]

This post kind of combines what Dierkes said here (which I think is wrong) and the idea of what Tampa does.

I looked at the 2019 and 2021 season.  In 2019, 451 players for at least 100 at bats.  Of those 451, 223 had a WAR of 1 or higher and 123 had a WAR of 2 or higher.  In 2021, 463 players had at least 100 at bats and 218 of them had a WAR of 1 or higher and 135 were 2 or higher.

On the pitching side, in 2019, 341 pitchers threw at least 50 innings.  164 of them had 1 WAR or higher and 81 had 2 WAR or higher.  In 2021, 338 pitchers threw at least 50 innings.  168 had a WAR of 1 or higher and 78 had a WAR of 2 or higher.

I am using FG WAR for this post and they value 1 WAR to be worth 8 million.

The reason I point this out is that by the time players get to arbitration, so often they start to become not worth their salaries, especially in the second and third year of arbitration.  A team like Tampa, who seemingly is always selling guys off once they get expensive isn't always necessarily being cheap.  Quite often its just the right baseball decision.  

The Orioles could get 1 WAR out of Lyles and technically, he will be worth the contract but the inefficiency of paying a 1 WAR guy 6-8M is not something you should be striving for.  That is a player you should be paying very little for.

You can make the same argument for the 2 WAR guy.  Should you be paying 10+ million for that player?  That's at least worthy of the discussion and should be taken on a case by case basis but I think we have to remember that just because a team trades guys off as they get expensive, thats doesn't mean they are being cheap.

This is why I think Dierkes is off on this salary stuff.  The Orioles saw their payroll rise in the mid 2010s because of arbitration results, which is the case for most teams.  So often though, you shouldn't go to arbitration with so many of your guys, at least the second and third time around.  They should be traded.  This is a concern of mine with Mullins.  What will he be in his second and third year of arbitration?  Will he be worth his salary then?  Tough call IMO.

I like the idea of saying, we aren't keeping around the guys making 5-10M to gives .8-1.5 WAR.  Those guys should be easily developed and get paid the league minimum.

 

[Frobby]

I think sometimes people overrate what kind of offense is typical for 1B/DH.  Last year the average at 1B was .254/.334/.443, for a .334 wOBA and 110 wRC+.   At DH, .248/.321/.455, for a .330 wOBA and 110 wRC+.   Mountcastle has basically done that as a rookie (.335 wOBA, 111 wRC+).   It’s reasonable to think he can exceed that as he gains experience.   He’ll probably always be a little light on the OBP side of the equation, but he has the power to make up for it and then some in terms of overall productivity.  

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think sometimes people overrate what kind of offense is typical for 1B/DH.  Last year the average at 1B was .254/.334/.443, for a .334 wOBA and 110 wRC+.   At DH, .248/.321/.455, for a .330 wOBA and 110 wRC+.   Mountcastle has basically done that as a rookie (.335 wOBA, 111 wRC+).   It’s reasonable to think he can exceed that as he gains experience.   He’ll probably always be a little light on the OBP side of the equation, but he has the power to make up for it and then some in terms of overall productivity.  

if you want to get a substantial advantage you use a big offensive player who really can't field at DH but takes to the role and doesn't have much or any DH penalty.  Or you can do like a lot of teams and just plug some random name in there, like whomever is a little banged up, and you get a .725 OPS from your assortment of six guys.