BP's Orioles Top 10 List

[Just Regular]

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/71747/2022-prospects-baltimore-orioles-top-prospects-list/

Their list came out this morning.   Not much new for the readers here...the few things that stood out to me were:

- a report Grayson showed month-over-month in-season improvement at fastball velo.

- placing Deson as a right field all the way profile.

- describing Pinto's changeup like it more than his fastball is his best pitch.

Not watching the Orioles as closely as Tony and many of you guys, I'm not surprised they didn't push the Mayo and Stowers hot years as much as the OH list did.

[Frobby]

So what’s the list?

I think Tony is the high man on Mayo.   

[RZNJ]

The thread says top ten and the post mentions Deson and Pinto.  Does BP have both in the top ten?  Especially in Deson's case that would be very surprising. 

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, Just Regular said:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/71747/2022-prospects-baltimore-orioles-top-prospects-list/

Their list came out this morning.   Not much new for the readers here...the few things that stood out to me were:

- a report Grayson showed month-over-month in-season improvement at fastball velo.

- placing Deson as a right field all the way profile.

- describing Pinto's changeup like it more than his fastball is his best pitch.

Not watching the Orioles as closely as Tony and many of you guys, I'm not surprised they didn't push the Mayo and Stowers hot years as much as the OH list did.

Pinto's best pitch is his changeup but his high spin breaking ball can also be plus at times. His fastball is probably his 3rd pitch for effectiveness.

I only saw Deson a little bit in Delmarva and I didn't see a center fielder. He didn't look that fast out there. The arm is good but not special in RF.

I probably am higher on Mayo and Stowers than others but I've always tended to be more aggressive with guys I really like the tools of, especially when they perform well. Lots of National guys just see Mayo as a 5th round pick. They'll get on the band wagon if he puts up a good season next year.

[Just Regular]

Their 8/9/10 were Kjerstad/Bradish/Vavra - the Deson and Pinto mentions were down-story - looks like after the ten big write-ups they have some subsections like "on the rise" and "factors on the farm".

[Can_of_corn]

I don't see how you can put Kjerstad in the top 10 of a healthy farm.

Let's see him get into some games this year.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see how you can put Kjerstad in the top 10 of a healthy farm.

Let's see him get into some games this year.

Depends on how you value upside. I 100% understand the concerns, but your comment shows either a complete lack of respect for people with a differing opinion or unhealthy amount of ego for your own opinion. 

Considering every single top 10 has him in it, including mine, perhaps an ego check needs to occur on your part. I mean it's fine to say you wouldn't put him in which would be your opinion, but if you really can't understand or "see" how others might, could suggest you don't understand how lists are put together.

I for one spend a lot of time explaining my reasonings for where players are listed and while you have every right to disagree, perhaps better wording is in order while disagreeing. 

[Can_of_corn]

16 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Depends on how you value upside. I 100% understand the concerns, but your comment shows either a complete lack of respect for people with a differing opinion or unhealthy amount of ego for your own opinion. 

Considering every single top 10 has him in it, including mine, perhaps an ego check needs to occur on your part. I mean it's fine to say you wouldn't put him in which would be your opinion, but if you really can't understand or "see" how others might, could suggest you don't understand how lists are put together.

I for one spend a lot of time explaining my reasonings for where players are listed and while you have every right to disagree, perhaps better wording is in order while disagreeing. 

He hasn't played, at all, for an extended period of time and we don't know, for sure, if he will ever be able to play a game as a professional.

When you have actual legitimate prospects that can be placed on the top 10 list, then yes, I do not understand how you can rate someone that is that much an unknown that highly.

This isn't about my ego, this is about his health.  This isn't about his ability, this is about his health.

As of last September he'd participated in a round of batting practice.

From what I've read folks do not always have a 100% recovery from Myocarditis.

So yea, I can not wrap my head around the idea that folks are willing to allow for that huge amount of risk.  Doesn't mean I'm right, just means I can't fathom it.  Just like I can't fathom the appeal of mumble rap.  I just have a cognitive dissonance in this area.

 

 

[RZNJ]

If you think the chances of Kjerstad coming back healthy are good, #8 is perfectly reasonable.  The time missed is a minimal consideration for a 23 yo player.  It's all about the health and the talent.  If you believe in both of those he has to be rated pretty high.  It's possible he has permanent issues but from what I'm reading about myocarditis and the fact that he's started baseball activities again it's perfectly reasonable to expect a full recovery and the resumption of his career.  Really not that much to wrap one's head around unless you just plain choose not to try.

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see how you can put Kjerstad in the top 10 of a healthy farm.

Let's see him get into some games this year.

I think where Tony has him (9) is just about perfect.    The top 8 are all high picks who have performed very well.   Four first rounders, three second rounders and a fifth round overslot who has performed like a stud at a young age.   There’s a sharp drop from that group to the next tier IMO, so slotting Kjerstad in between makes sense to me.   He’s got a significantly higher upside than anyone below him, but also carries a high degree of risk.   If someone wants to rank him lower due to the risk, okay by me, but I like putting him at 9.

[LookinUp]

I have no idea where Kjerstad belongs, but I think it's a good sign that he's been put out there by the O's in various settings over the last few months. It *feels* like they think he's ready to return and are bullish on that return.

That said, they might just be putting the recent #1 out there based on where he's drafted, so I don't read too much into it. Still, it doesn't feel like they're looking at him like a broken prospect because of his health issue.

[connja]

Sure would be nice to see Kjerstad doing some interviews soon.  Love to hear from him directly.

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, connja said:

Sure would be nice to see Kjerstad doing some interviews soon.  Love to hear from him directly.

He did a long one with the media during the Fall camp. Not sure what else there is to say at this point. Hopefully he shows up in March in great shape and opens his year in the minors ready to go.

[connja]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

He did a long one with the media during the Fall camp. Not sure what else there is to say at this point. Hopefully he shows up in March in great shape and opens his year in the minors ready to go.

must have missed it. I'll take a look.  

[Aristotelian]

On 1/5/2022 at 3:15 PM, Frobby said:

I think where Tony has him (9) is just about perfect.    The top 8 are all high picks who have performed very well.   Four first rounders, three second rounders and a fifth round overslot who has performed like a stud at a young age.   There’s a sharp drop from that group to the next tier IMO, so slotting Kjerstad in between makes sense to me.   He’s got a significantly higher upside than anyone below him, but also carries a high degree of risk.   If someone wants to rank him lower due to the risk, okay by me, but I like putting him at 9.

I agree, myocarditis doesn't really change his ceiling even if it massively drops his floor. Prospect rankings are mostly about ceiling and he still has the ceiling of a future all star. If another team were to see if he were available in trade, I would have a real hard time accepting anyone outside of our top 10 for him.