What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Austin Hays?

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

This is BS.  I did not say anything about him playing SS.  I spoke of a future outfield with Jones in center.  Corn said that he thought he was a SS and I said maybe in high school but not in the majors.  So just stop telling others what I said.

No, you said: "Maybe in HS, but probably not in the majors, according to reports I've seen."    All I asked what reports have you seen.  And you have yet to show them.

That is ok.  If you don't have any reports.   Peace.

[NCRaven]

On 2/11/2022 at 3:23 PM, NCRaven said:

My post has him in centerfield.  Corn mentioned that he's been a SS in high school.

Latest Perfect Game Showcase Report:

2021 NATIONAL SHOWCASE  

Andruw Jones is a 2022 OF/RHP, MIF with a 6-3 180 lb. frame from Suwanee, GA who attends Wesleyan. Long and lean athletic build, strong but still very projectable. 6.31 runner in the sixty. Has outstanding defensive actions in the outfield, glides to the ball with advanced footwork and athleticism, plenty of arm strength with on line carry and plus accuracy, pure centerfield tools. Also took drills in the infield and looked comfortable and athletic there as well. Right handed hitter, easy low tension swing with plus bat speed and plenty of impact at contact, polished hitter who can drive the ball to all fields, projects as a hitter as he gets stronger, especially in his lower half. Good student, verbal commitment to Vanderbilt. Named to play in the Perfect Game All-American Classic.

Gee, looks like I did post a report two pages ago.  Talks about him as an outfielder that also did some infield drills.

[OriolesMagic83]

Hays is the player I think could have the widest variation in his 2022 stats.  I believe a healthy Hays will put up an OPS north of .800 and could be All-Star.  A frequently injured Hays could struggle to break .700.  It will be interesting to see what Hays we get this year.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

48 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Hays is the player I think could have the widest variation in his 2022 stats.  I believe a healthy Hays will put up an OPS north of .800 and could be All-Star.  A frequently injured Hays could struggle to break .700.  It will be interesting to see what Hays we get this year.

Not unlike Nolan Reimold during his career, but Hays already had more (529) plate appearances last year than Reimold’s best season in 2009 with 411.

I’m just hoping we see Hays play in 130+ games again with some modest improvement this year. 

[Just Regular]

The BP annual got to my porch today and the Hays PECOTA forecast and comparables are mixed.

248/299/423 would be a huge disappointment following last year's fine season.

The top 3 comparables in the book were Starling Marte, Avisail Garcia, and Teoscar Hernandez.

[Jammer7]

Hays remains the most talented OF on the roster. Star potential. With the injuries and all that, he was held back before 2021. Last season, I noticed he was selling out to yank the ball to LF. He pulled off of a lot of pitches, but he did lift some HR’s out to LF. When he first came up, he was hitting absolute bombs to RCF, while staying through the ball with more of a gap to gap approach. I did not like his approach in 2021. If he keeps that up, the changes to LF wall will be detrimental to him in particular.

I am not sure what prompted him to make that change. Perhaps it was related to his core injury, or maybe a wrist issue prevented him from staying through the ball. But that has to get back to the old Hays’ swing. Or he will sink. 

[Frobby]

At .719, Hays fell below all 57 guesses in the poll.  Only two posters had him below .760.    Even adjusting for the league’s 30 point OPS drop, Hays was disappointing.  

[Hallas]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

At .719, Hays fell below all 57 guesses in the poll.  Only two posters had him below .760.    Even adjusting for the league’s 30 point OPS drop, Hays was disappointing.  

I kind of feel like preseason expectations are really hard to calibrate because not only did we have an unexpected 30 point OPS drop because of the humidor baseballs, but we also had our park changing dimensions and going from 105 in park effects in 2021 to a 1 year park effect of 97.  Park effects are notably volatile, and my understanding is that 2022 is going to use forward-looking park factors until it reaches 3 years worth of data, so the final park adjustment is still up in the air until we play 2023 and 2024.  But going from 105 to 100 in park effects would make a .760 hitter a .724 hitter.  He probably still underperformed a bit but it's really easy to underestimate the effect of that double whammy.

[btdart20]

26 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I kind of feel like preseason expectations are really hard to calibrate because not only did we have an unexpected 30 point OPS drop because of the humidor baseballs, but we also had our park changing dimensions and going from 105 in park effects in 2021 to a 1 year park effect of 97.  Park effects are notably volatile, and my understanding is that 2022 is going to use forward-looking park factors until it reaches 3 years worth of data, so the final park adjustment is still up in the air until we play 2023 and 2024.  But going from 105 to 100 in park effects would make a .760 hitter a .724 hitter.  He probably still underperformed a bit but it's really easy to underestimate the effect of that double whammy.

Agreed to some degree.  It's tough to tell league-wide type changes and the slight shifts in park factor.  However, we knew the LF wall changes would likely impact RH pull hitters.  And Hays isn't a big masher/EV type.  IIRC, he was barely clearing the LF wall in 2021.  Which is why I thought Hays would be the most negatively impacted by the wall changes.

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed to some degree.  It's tough to tell league-wide type changes and the slight shifts in park factor.  However, we knew the LF wall changes would likely impact RH pull hitters.  And Hays isn't a big masher/EV type.  IIRC, he was barely clearing the LF wall in 2021.  Which is why I thought Hays would be the most negatively impacted by the wall changes.

Hays had a .748 OPS at home and a .691 on the road.  Yes, he had more homers on the road, but he also hit .237 and walked just 10 times in 299 PAs.  

[Hallas]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Hays had a .748 OPS at home and a .691 on the road.  Yes, he had more homers on the road, but he also hit .237 and walked just 10 times in 299 PAs.  

 

Is it crazy to think that maybe he would have OPSed .780 or .790 if he played in the 2021 version of the park this year?  If 2 outs become 2 more HRs at home in 2022 his home OPS becomes .786.

Edited October 13, 2022 by Hallas

[btdart20]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Hays had a .748 OPS at home and a .691 on the road.  Yes, he had more homers on the road, but he also hit .237 and walked just 10 times in 299 PAs.  

Interesting.  My theory was completely undermined!  

[Moose Milligan]

Perhaps the biggest disappointment of the season, IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

58 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

Is it crazy to think that maybe he would have OPSed .780 or .790 if he played in the 2021 version of the park this year?  If 2 outs become 2 more HRs at home in 2022 his home OPS becomes .786.

Not crazy, no.  But his context-adjusted performance would probably have been about the same.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Perhaps the biggest disappointment of the season, IMO.

Sort of. Even if you thought he would do better, injuries were always something that were inevitable and those injuries hurt him again.

Edited October 13, 2022 by Sports Guy