Keith Law's Orioles' top 20 for 2022

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Baumann was 6-2  with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.84 Whip in 2019.  He didn't pitch in games in 2020 just like all minor leaguers.

In 2021 he worked his way back from injury in the first half and  in the July and August   had a 1.84 ERA  and a 0.93 WHIP  in 9 starts at at AA and AAA.

You may not like it but when healthy his result were good  in the minors last season.   He was probably tired in Sept with the O's.   He actually had a good game vs KC but after that he was done.

Let's see how he does in ST and to start the season before passing judgment on him.

Passing judgement is exactly what a ranking is.  You ranked him.  Why is that different?  Because yours was also rosy?

[Frobby]

A lot of the evaluators still have Baumann in their top 11-15.   It’s not just Law.   Personally I wasn’t impressed by what I saw of him at the major league level — not just the results, but his stuff didn’t overwhelm me and his command was mediocre.   But, I’m willing to keep an open mind concerning his stuff (not necessarily his command), considering it was the end of the season and he may have been tired.   

[wildcard]

I think of Bradish and Baumann as 4 inning starters in their rookie year.   That is the way Tampa would have used them and Tampa broke the code on how to have a  low team ERA without star pitchers.  Maybe they are the bulk guys following an opener.

I see both of them beginning the year at AAA.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think of Bradish and Baumann as 4 inning starters in their rookie year.   That is the way Tampa would have used them and Tampa broke the code on how to have a  low team ERA without star pitchers.  Maybe they are the bulk guys following an opener.

I see both of them beginning the year at AAA.

Well obviously if that’s what Tampa did, that’s what the Os will do because we are copying them, right?  

[LookinUp]

12 hours ago, wildcard said:

Baumann was 6-2  with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.84 Whip in 2019.  He didn't pitch in games in 2020 just like all minor leaguers.

In 2021 he worked his way back from injury in the first half and  in the July and August   had a 1.84 ERA  and a 0.93 WHIP  in 9 starts at at AA and AAA.

You may not like it but when healthy his result were good  in the minors last season.   He was probably tired in Sept with the O's.   He actually had a good game vs KC but after that he was done.

Let's see how he does in ST and to start the season before passing judgment on him.

You kinda buried the lede here wildcard.

Baumann did pitch in 2020 and was shut down for injury. He never had surgery and his stuff was never the same last year as it was during his 2019 domination. It's not like I mind a 2.31 ERA, but context matters. He has to regain his stuff to raise up prospect rankings again.

All of that said, I do allow for the possibility that what we saw last year in Baltimore was a spent arm and that he'll be better this year. I just have a terrible feeling that he'll be shut down in 2022 for TJ surgery and then miss a lot of 2023. There's a ton of risk with this guy.

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, wildcard said:

Baumann was 6-2  with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.84 Whip in 2019.  He didn't pitch in games in 2020 just like all minor leaguers.

In 2021 he worked his way back from injury in the first half and  in the July and August   had a 1.84 ERA  and a 0.93 WHIP  in 9 starts at at AA and AAA.

You may not like it but when healthy his result were good  in the minors last season.   He was probably tired in Sept with the O's.   He actually had a good game vs KC but after that he was done.

Let's see how he does in ST and to start the season before passing judgment on him.

All of this is true, but what you fail to seem to take into consideration is the stuff is not the same in 2021 as it was in 2019. 

Baumann was promoted last September and despite being all adrenaline rushed from being in the majors and pitching in short stints in relief, he averaged just 93.6 MPH on his "95 MPH fastball". His slider, which can flash plus at times averaged 89.5 MPH giving his main secondary only a 4.1 MPH difference. 

As I explained before, success in AAA is a potential "indicator" but certainly not an absolute when determining potential for success in the major leagues. The talent difference between AAA and the majors is pretty big. Despite Baumann's small sample size success at the end of the year in Norfolk, his stuff wasn't that great.

Saying all that, IF Baumann's stuff can recover to it's 2019 form, then he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect and #12 area is about right for him. But, the guy I aw last year and especially the guy who showed up in the major leagues is a reliever at best, and probably a middle/long guy.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

All of this is true, but what you fail to seem to take into consideration is the stuff is not the same in 2021 as it was in 2019. 

Baumann was promoted last September and despite being all adrenaline rushed from being in the majors and pitching in short stints in relief, he averaged just 93.6 MPH on his "95 MPH fastball". His slider, which can flash plus at times averaged 89.5 MPH giving his main secondary only a 4.1 MPH difference. 

As I explained before, success in AAA is a potential "indicator" but certainly not an absolute when determining potential for success in the major leagues. The talent difference between AAA and the majors is pretty big. Despite Baumann's small sample size success at the end of the year in Norfolk, his stuff wasn't that great.

Saying all that, IF Baumann's stuff can recover to it's 2019 form, then he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect and #12 area is about right for him. But, the guy I aw last year and especially the guy who showed up in the major leagues is a reliever at best, and probably a middle/long guy.

Right.  No one is saying he can never be what he was.  But since the 2019 season, he had a major injury and saw a reduction in his stuff as a result.

You can’t rank him the same now as you did then until you see the stuff come back.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

All of this is true, but what you fail to seem to take into consideration is the stuff is not the same in 2021 as it was in 2019. 

Baumann was promoted last September and despite being all adrenaline rushed from being in the majors and pitching in short stints in relief, he averaged just 93.6 MPH on his "95 MPH fastball". His slider, which can flash plus at times averaged 89.5 MPH giving his main secondary only a 4.1 MPH difference. 

As I explained before, success in AAA is a potential "indicator" but certainly not an absolute when determining potential for success in the major leagues. The talent difference between AAA and the majors is pretty big. Despite Baumann's small sample size success at the end of the year in Norfolk, his stuff wasn't that great.

Saying all that, IF Baumann's stuff can recover to it's 2019 form, then he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect and #12 area is about right for him. But, the guy I aw last year and especially the guy who showed up in the major leagues is a reliever at best, and probably a middle/long guy.

I thought it was interesting that Fangraphs (who were not that high on Baumann, ranking him 22nd and rating him at 40 FV) said this:

“Baumann’s 2020 ended with a flexor strain but all of his velocity was back in ’21, when he was once again sitting in the 93-95 mph range.”

I thought he had a bit more velocity than that in 2019.   And, I think he might have had a little better velocity in parts of the 2021 MiL season than he did in the majors in September.    

From my perspective, I’ll just see how he looks in ‘22 after a normal winter of rest.   I’m hoping to see better stuff than I saw in September with the O’s.
 

[Tony-OH]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I thought it was interesting that Fangraphs (who were not that high on Baumann, ranking him 22nd and rating him at 40 FV) said this:

“Baumann’s 2020 ended with a flexor strain but all of his velocity was back in ’21, when he was once again sitting in the 93-95 mph range.”

I thought he had a bit more velocity than that in 2019.   And, I think he might have had a little better velocity in parts of the 2021 MiL season than he did in the majors in September.    

From my perspective, I’ll just see how he looks in ‘22 after a normal winter of rest.   I’m hoping to see better stuff than I saw in September with the O’s.
 

He did and he did at times. Remember, this is a guy who was hitting 98 and 99 MPH in the 9th inning of his no-hitter while sitting 94-97 that game. 

I did hear of him hitting 95-96 on occasion last season, but it was more rare. The other thing to take into consideration is he'll pitch at 26 years old next year so he's no baseball spring chicken. Most importantly though was the movement of his fastball and slider were not good. He would flash a nice slider then throw two below average ones up there which is why you don't see the big strikeout numbers with him.

Honestly, it was hard to say he had a go to plus pitch last year which is a requirement for a late inning reliever and even for a starting pitcher. 

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I did hear of him hitting 95-96 on occasion last season, but it was more rare. The other thing to take into consideration is he'll pitch at 26 years old next year so he's no baseball spring chicken. Most importantly though was the movement of his fastball and slider were not good. He would flash a nice slider then throw two below average ones up there which is why you don't see the big strikeout numbers with him.

That’s consistent with what I saw.

[RZNJ]

18 hours ago, wildcard said:

That is an easy one.  Baumann has a 95 mph fastball and a plus slider.  He has been developed as a starter all the way through AAA.  He still needs more time at AAA but he is close. He did have a 2.00 ERA at AAA in Sept after coming back from injuries.  He has earned his way up the ladder.  

Pinto is 21 and has played 17 games as a professional.  He's 5'11" and 175 lbs.    Most ranker are not willing to stick their neck out on him  until they see more.  Tony is exception because he grades on potential not long term achievement.   Not saying Tony is wrong its just not the main stream.

It may be easy for you but you haven't got me convinced that his description does not compute with his rankings.

[LookinUp]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It may be easy for you but you haven't got me convinced that his description does not compute with his rankings.

I feel like he's in year 1 of the Adam Hall treatment. Hold him up there based on projections from his past, not his most recent showing. Then hope he returns to form.

Not totally illogical, by the way.

[justD]

On 2/15/2022 at 7:53 PM, wildcard said:

It should be interesting.   Gunnar, Westburg and Ortiz should all start the season at AA.  They all would like to be SS.   

Mateo will battle Urias for the starting SS for the O's.   Mateo in a natural SS with a 60 arm and very good range.   But in the minors he was a 20+ error guy over a full season.   Urias  plays both SS/2B but is better defensive at 2B.   

So Law say Ortiz could be the starting SS with the O's by Labor day.  With Mateo history of errors that might be true.  But with that logic so could Westburg.   Both are probably not as error prone as Mateo.   But I am not sure either has Mateo range.

It should be interesting.

I can’t tell you how excited I am to see AA games this season.  Got myself a 15-voucher plan to the Harrisburg team (Senators) here at home, planning to see every Bowie series game.  May make a trip or two to Bowie or even Altoona to see them as well, who knows.  

Nothing better than good talent competing for spots, and I’m optimistic this will be the case for SS, 2B, even 3B at the double A level in the first half of 2022.