Fangraphs on managing prospect expectations

[waroriole]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And/or too tall to set a good low target.

He had a couple really nice years on defense but his defensive peak didn't last long.

I always thought it was because Buck ran him into the ground, but could be that the knees and height were never going to allow for his longevity. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

And/or too tall to set a good low target.

He had a couple really nice years on defense but his defensive peak didn't last long.

I don’t know when framing stats started to be published, but I think it was after Wieters had graduated to the majors.   That was his main weakness.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know when framing stats started to be published, but I think it was after Wieters had graduated to the majors.   That was his main weakness.   

Mike Fast had him a bit about neutral.  The others that followed after were less enthusiastic.

Now is that because of the methodology used or did his ability to frame decline over time? 

Probably a bit of both.

[wildcard]

I will keep my expectation for Adley and Grayson high.  

Cowser my be a corner OF with a high OBP and 15 HR power

Mayo may not be a 3B. But I think he will hit.

I think most would understand with DL Hall goes through TJ at some point and could be a reliever.

Kjerstad may have power but not a high average and is only an average RF.  Same with Stowers.

Gunnar maybe a 3B but I think he can have an 850 OPS.

Westburg could be a 2B with an 800 OPS.

I will be surprised if Mountcastle and Mullins  don't maintain an 850 OPS.

So across all the top 10 O's prospects some may not be all stars but as a whole  I think they will fair pretty well and the combination of all of them will bring a good offensive team.

 

 

 

[joelala]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Now the lockout is starting to feel personal.

Has anyone done a wellness check on Duquette?

[Pickles]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I really don’t recall criticism, it’s just that defense wasn’t his big selling point.   His hitting was.   He definitely exceeded expectations defensively and fell short of them offensively.   

It was almost obligatory, because all prospect writeups have a weakness or needs to improve category, and for Wieters it was ALWAYS his defense.  And as others have recalled, it was mainly about his size preventing him from setting a good target and/or preventing him from having a good pop time to second. Also, about how his size would prevent him from having a long career behind the dish and would necessitate a move to first.

Feel free to jog my memory, but nobody predicted him to become a Gold Glove catcher, with an arm as a real asset.  Likewise nobody made a criticism of his bat, including what would turn out to be legitimate criticisms: That he lacked elite bat speed, and that was a significantly better hitter from the right side than the left.

[LookinUp]

I think you're right about his size being projected as a long term issue but wrong about his defense ratings. I think he was VERY highly rated as a defensive catcher, but there was questions about longevity.

[Sports Guy]

On 3/5/2022 at 11:53 AM, wildcard said:

I will keep my expectation for Adley and Grayson high.  

Cowser my be a corner OF with a high OBP and 15 HR power

Mayo may not be a 3B. But I think he will hit.

I think most would understand with DL Hall goes through TJ at some point and could be a reliever.

Kjerstad may have power but not a high average and is only an average RF.  Same with Stowers.

Gunnar maybe a 3B but I think he can have an 850 OPS.

Westburg could be a 2B with an 800 OPS.

I will be surprised if Mountcastle and Mullins  don't maintain an 850 OPS.

So across all the top 10 O's prospects some may not be all stars but as a whole  I think they will fair pretty well and the combination of all of them will bring a good offensive team.

 

 

 

Glad to see you are managing expectations!

You would be surprised if Mullins and Mountcastle aren’t amongst the 35 or so best offensive players?  That would SURPRISE you?  

[sevastras]

If he isnt Buster Posey, I will be disappointed.  I actually think he comps very well with Posey, who had a career BA of .302.

[Pickles]

19 minutes ago, sevastras said:

If he isnt Buster Posey, I will be disappointed.  I actually think he comps very well with Posey, who had a career BA of .302.

He didn't hit .300 in the MiLs.

What makes you think he'll do it for his ML career?

[interloper]

Adley is very likely to be a good major leaguer because he's a position player.

Rodriguez is not because he's a pitcher. 

At least, that's how my brain works. If ANY pitcher we develop becomes a quality major leaguer, I always feel like we won the lottery. Even with a sure thing like G-Rod. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

My personal mental model for prospect expectations is to approach it like a portfolio of VC investments. That is, think about them in terms of what their realistic strong positive outcome is (~75th-90th+ percentile outcome, stop short of long right-hand tail outcomes along distribution) and recognize that many will flame out or only achieve a fraction of that potential. Personally find that to be a better reflection of dynamic at play vs. penciling them all in at their 50th percentile outcome or slightly more conservative.