Free agency thread

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I mean he’s an overpay at historical FA prices.   I look at the whole contract — is there likely to be surplus in the early years that will compensate for the deficit in the decline years, at $8 mm/win?  The likelihood that the last few years will have a deficit is a given, it’s just a question of whether there’s enough surplus in the early years.   I don’t look at it as “all free agents are overpaid.”   As a group, they’re paid exactly what the market will bear.   But some contracts are much better than average compared to production, and some are much worse.   This one looks well below average IMO.   My guess is you agree, since 4/$80 mm worth of production (call it 10 WAR) will leave him well underwater at the end of 7 years.    

My point is that his starting point is three wins a year, so to break even over the whole deal he'd have to magically surge back to his production from years ago and then decline like you'd expect from there.

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Rays offered Freeman 6/150 according to Heyman and with the lack of state taxes, that makes that offer even higher.

Freeman wanted to go home.

And not play in the Trop.  And not switch leagues.

I have to think that for Tampa playing in a stadium like that is a severe hindrance for them trying to make a deal like that.  I typically wouldn't think that way since most teams have a pretty good stadium these days but I don't think the Trop has any redeeming qualities.  It's gotta be depressing to play there 81 times a year.

[jabba72]

Well the Dodgers gave him 6/162 so I guess with the high taxes, the Rays offer is significantly better. 

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, seak05 said:

First baseman other then Eddie have existed in the last 30 years.... But I would bet that over the course of the next 6 years Freeman produces more then 24 WAR 

 Taking Freeman's top 10 through-age 31 comps (bb-ref), and their value in their age 32-37 seasons:

Murray, 15 WAR
Raffy, 27
Yaz, 17.6
Prince Fielder, -1.6
Shawn Green, 0.6
Orlando Cepeda, 5.6
Bagwell, 23
Luzinski, 2
Olerud, 14
Teixeira, 6.6

Of the 10 one or two would have been worth the contract, an additional three were basically average to average+ players over the length of the deal, and five (or half) were trainwrecks.  Through 31 Mark Teixeira and Freeman were pretty comparable first basemen, both highly sought after in free agency, and Teixeira was worth six wins the rest of his life.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 Taking Freeman's top 10 through-age 31 comps (bb-ref), and their value in their age 32-37 seasons:

Murray, 15 WAR
Raffy, 27
Yaz, 17.6
Prince Fielder, -1.6
Shawn Green, 0.6
Orlando Cepeda, 5.6
Bagwell, 23
Luzinski, 2
Olerud, 14
Teixeira, 6.6

Of the 10 one or two would have been worth the contract, an additional three were basically average to average+ players over the length of the deal, and five (or half) were trainwrecks.  Through 31 Mark Teixeira and Freeman were pretty comparable first basemen, both highly sought after in free agency, and Teixeira was worth six wins the rest of his life.

Yeah the Braves were very smart to go with Olson over Freddie. Or at least it's smartER. If you're a Braves fan, I get being sad your guy left, but it's like if Manny left and we immediately replaced him with a younger Manny, and then locked him up long term. 

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He may also be Nelson Cruz and always hit. 

The MLBPA and every agent must think Nelson Cruz is the best thing in the history of things. Every free agent in their 30s says, hey, I'm not going to be out of the league at 33 or 35 like almost everyone in history.  I'm going to be Nelson Cruz, it can happen, you're not a blind drunk idiot to sign me through my 39th birthday at $25M per.  Really you're not.

[geschinger]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

He has played in 144+ games every year except 2020 (COVID year) and 2018.

Like his career productivity his perceived durability is higlhly skewed by his first three seasons.

Since 2018 he's played 102, 147, 34 out of 60 and 144games.  15 of those as a PH.  Now he's on the wrong side of 30.  Rockies will be lucky if they get 120 games a year out of him over the next 4 years.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, geschinger said:

Like his career productivity his perceived durability is higlhly skewed by his first three seasons.

Since 2018 he's played 102, 147, 34 out of 60 and 144games.  15 of those as a PH.  Now he's on the wrong side of 30.  Rockies will be lucky if they get 120 games a year out of him over the next 4 years.

Hard to say.   What have been the nature of his injuries?

[geschinger]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hard to say.   What have been the nature of his injuries?

Quite an array, I guess one good sign is that it isn't a singular injury that keeps reoccurring.  The wrist is the only thing I see him missing time for in multiple years.  He's missed time dealing with shoulder inflamation, a back issue, finger sprain, wrist sprain, hamstring, hand, knee, oblique, and elbow. 

[Just Regular]

Villar and Givens reunited on Marcus Stroman's Cubs.

[waroriole]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 Taking Freeman's top 10 through-age 31 comps (bb-ref), and their value in their age 32-37 seasons:

Murray, 15 WAR
Raffy, 27
Yaz, 17.6
Prince Fielder, -1.6
Shawn Green, 0.6
Orlando Cepeda, 5.6
Bagwell, 23
Luzinski, 2
Olerud, 14
Teixeira, 6.6

Of the 10 one or two would have been worth the contract, an additional three were basically average to average+ players over the length of the deal, and five (or half) were trainwrecks.  Through 31 Mark Teixeira and Freeman were pretty comparable first basemen, both highly sought after in free agency, and Teixeira was worth six wins the rest of his life.

The highest of those two was suspended for “bad B12” and there was always speculation around the second. Both played in an era where careers of sluggers were extended in an unprecedented fashion. Those conditions don’t seem to exist anymore. 

[Sports Guy]

Sounds like the Phils are about to sign Castellanos. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sounds like the Phils are about to sign Castellanos. 

I'm sure they would like to slip back under the CBT threshold if they do in fact sign him, perhaps we should engage with them on Kingery and/or Gregorius to see if we could get them to include an interesting prospect or two with the salary dump(s).

[Moose Milligan]

Voit traded to the Padres. 

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33536058/san-diego-padres-acquire-first-baseman-luke-voit-new-york-yankees

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Voit traded to the Padres. 

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33536058/san-diego-padres-acquire-first-baseman-luke-voit-new-york-yankees

I don’t know much about Voit. I wasn’t overwhelmed looking at his stats but seemed like a hot commodity.