Not a Bad Idea? Lopez as closer

[BohKnowsBmore]

45 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not sure I would comp Lopez to Britton in 2016..go back to 2014 when he threw 76 innings.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK, so we can look for Lopez to peak in 2024?

If I remember correctly, Britton was in something more akin to the Keegan Akin role to begin the year in 2014.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK, so we can look for Lopez to peak in 2024?

Well, if I personally go back to my thoughts in 2014 about Britton, I didn’t feel he was an elite reliever that year.  The lacks of Ks bothered me.

But the missed bats were there, so I felt good about him.

Lopez is league average in missed bats but likely below average for relievers.  The K rate is solid but not great and the BBS are a tad high.

It is possible he can do more and get better?  Sure.  But a lot has to change.

Anyway, if he is still the closer in a few years, I’m guessing the IP goes down, just like Britton, thus why I think the 2014 Britton is the better comp than 2016.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, if I personally go back to my thoughts in 2014 about Britton, I didn’t feel he was an elite reliever that year.  The lacks of Ks bothered me.

But the missed bats were there, so I felt good about him.

Lopez is league average in missed bats but likely below average for relievers.  The K rate is solid but not great and the BBS are a tad high.

It is possible he can do more and get better?  Sure.  But a lot has to change.

Anyway, if he is still the closer in a few years, I’m guessing the IP goes down, just like Britton, thus why I think the 2014 Britton is the better comp than 2016.

It makes sense.  And for the record I don’t expect Lopez to prove to be as good as Britton.  But, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a reasonably competent closer or late inning reliever.   

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It makes sense.  And for the record I don’t expect Lopez to prove to be as good as Britton.  But, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a reasonably competent closer or late inning reliever.   

No it doesn’t.  
 

The question becomes, what do you do with him?  If he was missing bats at a higher rate and the other peripherals were low, I wouldn’t want to trade him.

But they aren’t and while they can improve, you wonder what his true upside is and how sustainable it is.  For me, I look to move him but not for a deal like the Sulser/Scott deal.  It has to be something legit coming back.  If not, I hold onto him and see if he can build on what he has done.

[BohKnowsBmore]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No it doesn’t.  
 

The question becomes, what do you do with him?  If he was missing bats at a higher rate and the other peripherals were low, I wouldn’t want to trade him.

But they aren’t and while they can improve, you wonder what his true upside is and how sustainable it is.  For me, I look to move him but not for a deal like the Sulser/Scott deal.  It has to be something legit coming back.  If not, I hold onto him and see if he can build on what he has done.

What do you mean? Are you suggesting his success to this point is smoke and mirrors?

As far as missing bats, his K/9 is higher than any point in his career, other than his 10 IP debut in 2015 (although not elite), and higher than Britton's in 2014.

A lot of his peripherals are encouraging. His GB rate is way up (63.5% vs. 50.4% last year and 48.8% across BAL & KC last in 2020), which is consistent with a dominant sinker. Similarly, his barrel % has plummeted (2.4% vs. 9.3% last year and 9.2% across BAL & KC last in 2020), as has his hard hit % (25.9% vs. 43.5% last year and 49.6% across BAL & KC last in 2020). 

Looking under the hood, there's not a ton to suggest that his performance to date has been unsustainable, beyond such great performance being difficult to sustain in general.

[Tony-OH]

On 6/15/2022 at 7:49 AM, Sports Guy said:

We should absolutely be exploring the trade market for him.  Whether or not teams will give up enough to trade him is a different story.

 

One of the reasons why I wanted to convert him to a reliever last year. He'd be cost controlled and valuable to a contending team. But the Orioles decided to use him to eat innings in a role he proved he was not good for so he had no value even after converting him at the end of last year.

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

What do you mean? Are you suggesting his success to this point is smoke and mirrors?

As far as missing bats, his K/9 is higher than any point in his career, other than his 10 IP debut in 2015 (although not elite), and higher than Britton's in 2014.

A lot of his peripherals are encouraging. His GB rate is way up (63.5% vs. 50.4% last year and 48.8% across BAL & KC last in 2020), which is consistent with a dominant sinker. Similarly, his barrel % has plummeted (2.4% vs. 9.3% last year and 9.2% across BAL & KC last in 2020), as has his hard hit % (25.9% vs. 43.5% last year and 49.6% across BAL & KC last in 2020). 

Looking under the hood, there's not a ton to suggest that his performance to date has been unsustainable, beyond such great performance being difficult to sustain in general.

No, I’m not suggesting it at all and of course his K rate is higher as a reliever.  That was always going to be the case.

However, if you are a pitcher where a lot of contact is being made, especially a reliever, eventually you are going to give up runs.  Sure you may have a season where things break right, the BABIP stays low and you have dominant numbers but it will catch up to you. 
 

Now, the good news is it’s not like Lopez has a K rate of 7 and he is only getting a 14% swgstr% or something like that.  His numbers are still respectable and, as you pointed out, the batted ball data is good.

I just think he probably settles in at more of a 2.5-3.5 ERA type guy which while still extremely valuable, isn’t as good as he has shown so far.

If he starts to miss more bats, gets the K rate higher (the 4K game the other night is a recent big help in that), throws more strikes and keeps the walks down, that changes things.  
 

Again, going back to Britton in 2014…as good as he was, he had room to be better and become truly an elite reliever.  He was still very good but there is a separation between the elite and the very good.  What he did the following 2 years was different than 2014.

[Frobby]

Lopez has an 0.79 ERA but his xERA is 2.42.    A 2.42 ERA is still very good, but that indicates we can expect some regression from Lopez at some point.   

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Lopez has an 0.79 ERA but his xERA is 2.42.    A 2.42 ERA is still very good, but that indicates we can expect some regression from Lopez at some point.   

Maybe when he is 40?

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Maybe when he is 40?

More likely, later this year.   I’ll say this though: I feel like Lopez has been gaining confidence as the season has progressed.   

[NCRaven]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

More likely, later this year.   I’ll say this though: I feel like Lopez has been gaining confidence as the season has progressed.   

I’ve certainly gained more confidence in Lopez.

[Just Regular]

Lopez is certainly in the Britton family where the GB% thing is a lot of his effectiveness.

Here are all qualified MLB relievers YTD by GB%.    Lopez's K/9 about 9.0 same as Holmes, but the elite ground ballers there are plenty of 8, 7, 6, 5, even 4 among pitchers doing okay.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=14,d

[NCRaven]

The bullpen has been one of the best parts of this season.  Along with Rutschman’s arrival, Mancini’s and Hays’ health and production, and Mountcastle’s June resurgence, this had become a fun team to follow.  I’d hate to make this team less interesting for a minimal return.

Trading a player like Mancini with no remaining team control makes sense.  Wish him well with a chance at a ring on a contender.  Just not sure that the return on anyone else, with the possible exceptions of Mullins and Hays would be worth the pain.

[Frobby]

If the O’s are going to try to be a winning team starting next season (and right now that’s what I’m expecting), I’m not sure I’d be selling bullpen pieces this July unless management doesn’t believe in the performance of those players.   To be a good team, you need a good bullpen, so dismantling one that has a lot of key pieces under team control for a long time seems like a dubious idea to me.   I’d rather keep them around and let them contribute to the next winning Orioles team.  

Now, that said, there may be individual players who we feel are overperforming, and if we get an offer that overvalues those players based on current performance we think is not likely to be sustainable, by all means move those players.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If the O’s are going to try to be a winning team starting next season (and right now that’s what I’m expecting), I’m not sure I’d be selling bullpen pieces this July unless management doesn’t believe in the performance of those players.   To be a good team, you need a good bullpen, so dismantling one that has a lot of key pieces under team control for a long time seems like a dubious idea to me.   I’d rather keep them around and let them contribute to the next winning Orioles team.  

Now, that said, there may be individual players who we feel are overperforming, and if we get an offer that overvalues those players based on current performance we think is not likely to be sustainable, by all means move those players.  

The other thing you have to question is, if they built this pen with what they have, can they do it again?

What are the futures of Bradish and Kremer, for example?  Right now, I would guess bullpen, which gives you flexibility to move some other players in trades if the deals are there.