Gunnar Henderson 2022

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Three games along Gunnar has splashed the pool with a 162 Game Avg of 16 WAR.     Slumping Adley down to a mere 7.

 

 "Saul has slain his thousands, and David his tens of thousands." (1 Samuel 18:7)

”There’s a new kid in town.” (The Eagles)

Edited September 3, 2022 by Frobby

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

The last #35 was Adam Plutko.  I’m hoping Henderson will be better.  

HA HA ... I don't even remember him...lol

Yeah I don't think he will be making the hall of fame any time soon...lol

[Bemorewins]

I’m not sure what type of extension would work in terms of years and AAV for Gunnar and for that matter Adley. But this should be the primary focus of the front office. For once we should be proactive. Other orgs have laid out a blue print with comps. Given our extremely low payroll even if we had to add 50- 60 million to next years payroll to pay both of them and have them long term, we should do it. These types of players just don’t come around often. They are the key cornerstone pieces that will keep us in contention for years. I still say if we lock both up and add a TOR we will not only be in the conversation for serious World Series contenders next year. But it will be the right message to send to the fan base that will build lasting momentum (of course the winning will and need to happen). But the O’s need to prove to a lot of people that “things are different this time” and they came be trusted. Everyone saw for years the cliff of 2018 coming last time and it appeared we had no one competent enough in the org to be proactive to avoid it. We don’t have to and can’t afford to spend like the big boys, but we must spend and spend wisely. Gunnar and Adley are wise investments.

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m not sure what type of extension would work in terms of years and AAV for Gunnar and for that matter Adley. But this should be the primary focus of the front office. For once we should be proactive. Other orgs have laid out a blue print with comps. Given our extremely low payroll even if we had to add 50- 60 million to next years payroll to pay both of them and have them long term, we should do it. These types of players just don’t come around often. They are the key cornerstone pieces that will keep us in contention for years. I still say if we lock both up and add a TOR we will not only be in the conversation for serious World Series contenders next year. But it will be the right message to send to the fan base that will build lasting momentum (of course the winning will and need to happen). But the O’s need to prove to a lot of people that “things are different this time” and they came be trusted. Everyone saw for years the cliff of 2018 coming last time and it appeared we had no one competent enough in the org to be proactive to avoid it. We don’t have to and can’t afford to spend like the big boys, but we must spend and spend wisely. Gunnar and Adley are wise investments.

It’s not next year’s payroll that’s the issue.  It’s the payroll 5-7 years from now that has to be managed.

I’m all in favor of trying to lock these guys up.  That actually helps control costs down the road, and allows a team to forecast what it’s payroll will be.  But the fact is, if we were able to develop five superstars, we’d be unable to pay all of them the equivalent of free agent market salaries, regardless of when we locked them up.  If Elias continues to be successful at selecting and developing young players, there will come a time that we’ll have to part with some players as they reach the end of their arbitration-eligible years.   
 

[CharmCityHokie]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s not next year’s payroll that’s the issue.  It’s the payroll 5-7 years from now that has to be managed.

I’m all in favor of trying to lock these guys up.  That actually helps control costs down the road, and allows a team to forecast what it’s payroll will be.  But the fact is, if we were able to develop five superstars, we’d be unable to pay all of them the equivalent of free agent market salaries, regardless of when we locked them up.  If Elias continues to be successful at selecting and developing young players, there will come a time that we’ll have to part with some players as they reach the end of their arbitration-eligible years.   
 

If I'm Gunnar Henderson and this topic is broached by either his agent or the FO, I'm thinking..."who was the last #1 overall prospect who played SS before me?" "Oh yea, some guy named Wander, I'll have what he's having."

 

[Can_of_corn]

34 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

If I'm Gunnar Henderson and this topic is broached by either his agent or the FO, I'm thinking..."who was the last #1 overall prospect who played SS before me?" "Oh yea, some guy named Wander, I'll have what he's having."

 

That's why the smart move was to sign him last year.

Everyone laughed but how nice would it be to be in year two of a ten year deal right now?

[yark14]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's why the smart move was to sign him last year.

Everyone laughed but how nice would it be to be in year two of a ten year deal right now?

On Gunnar's end it would have been dumb to sign a long-term deal last year.  He has been in the ultimate position to bet on himself this past calendar year by waiting until he debuts.  As the jaws drop the wallet gets larger.

I hope we sign Gunnar and Adley to essentially lifetime contracts.  Our payroll is so low right now it doesn't hurt to sign them to contracts that shift money towards the front, so that they aren't bloated on the back end.  Hell, give them both $10-15mm next year for all I care.  We would still have enough to sign a solid starting pitcher and someone like Willson Contreras for a C/1B/DH role and still be at about league average payroll.  

[7Mo]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's why the smart move was to sign him last year.

Everyone laughed but how nice would it be to be in year two of a ten year deal right now?

Do you mean "everyone" on this board?

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It’s not next year’s payroll that’s the issue.  It’s the payroll 5-7 years from now that has to be managed.

I’m all in favor of trying to lock these guys up.  That actually helps control costs down the road, and allows a team to forecast what it’s payroll will be.  But the fact is, if we were able to develop five superstars, we’d be unable to pay all of them the equivalent of free agent market salaries, regardless of when we locked them up.  If Elias continues to be successful at selecting and developing young players, there will come a time that we’ll have to part with some players as they reach the end of their arbitration-eligible years.   
 

I most certainly agree that down the road hard choices will have to be made and we will have to let go of some good players. But Henderson and Rutschman are cornerstone foundational players. They are not the type of guys that I would bank on being able to easily replace. They have ELITE traits and skills that are not easy to duplicate and find. I would prefer to build out the roster around then going forward and the best way to do that IMO is to buy out their arb years and hopefully a couple of years of FA.

[ShoelesJoe]

50 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

If I'm Gunnar Henderson and this topic is broached by either his agent or the FO, I'm thinking..."who was the last #1 overall prospect who played SS before me?" "Oh yea, some guy named Wander, I'll have what he's having."

 

Ya, the Franco deal — 11/$182 with a $25 million team option for year 12 — would probably be the starting point to extend Gunnar. Any hypothetical contract extension would have to end in his early 30’s so that he’d have one more chance for the really big payday. Would 11/$220 with some incentives get it done? 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Do you mean "everyone" on this board?

Laughed is a figure of speech but I don't recall anyone agreeing with me.

And yea the board.

[Bemorewins]

56 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

If I'm Gunnar Henderson and this topic is broached by either his agent or the FO, I'm thinking..."who was the last #1 overall prospect who played SS before me?" "Oh yea, some guy named Wander, I'll have what he's having."

 

Wander’s AAV Is less than 17 million. Do you know what type of value that will be through his prime years with inflation alone. If that is what Gunnar wants if I’m the O’s I’m running as fast as I can to him and Boras and saying yes sir here you go!

Again out payroll is insanely low right now this is the optimal time to get it done.

17-20 for him and even Adley ain’t bad plus the 36 we are already committed to. That’s less than 80 mil next year. Any & every ball club can afford that and then some.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, yark14 said:

On Gunnar's end it would have been dumb to sign a long-term deal last year.  He has been in the ultimate position to bet on himself this past calendar year by waiting until he debuts.  As the jaws drop the wallet gets larger.

I hope we sign Gunnar and Adley to essentially lifetime contracts.  Our payroll is so low right now it doesn't hurt to sign them to contracts that shift money towards the front, so that they aren't bloated on the back end.  Hell, give them both $10-15mm next year for all I care.  We would still have enough to sign a solid starting pitcher and someone like Willson Contreras for a C/1B/DH role and still be at about league average payroll.  

Not sold it would have been dumb for a kid in A ball to sign a MLB deal for guaranteed millikns.

Easy to say that now, the Orioles would have been assuming a ton of risk.

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Laughed is a figure of speech but I don't recall anyone agreeing with me.

And yea the board.

I'd be surprised if anyone disagreed with the concept. The cost might make a difference as would Gunnar's willingness.

[Frobby]

Just now, ShoelesJoe said:

Ya, the Franco deal — 11/$182 with a $25 million team option for year 12 — would probably be the starting point to extend Gunnar. Any hypothetical contract extension would have to end in his early 30’s so that he’d have one more chance for the really big payday. Would 11/$220 with some incentives get it done? 

Well, I will say this.   Gunnar obviously rose to No. 1 status in some circles, but he wasn’t regarded in quite the same way as Franco, who earned an 80 FV grade from Fangraphs and was a consensus no. 1 even with Adley in the minors with him.  Gunnar also is making his debut a year older than Franco was.  So, I don’t know that on the merits Gunnar deserves a contract exceeding Franco’s.  At the same time, it might take a bigger contract to get him to sign, it he’s willing to sign an extension at all.