Is the overslot strategy worth it?

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes I do. I agree that it was said but I don’t recall seeing that anytime recently.

All I have seen is that Jones is separating himself.

Who is saying Green has a higher upside?  How credible are they? 

Baseball America on 4/27 and MLB on 4/25 both say it.  BA says he could have the best pure upside in the draft. MLB says he has the highest ceiling in the draft.

[foxfield]

Thanks for the research SG and Frobby.  It looks to me like a general statement could be made that always taking the BPA is the right answer.  The trick in the calculation is what is the actual miss on valuation by making a choice to go over or under slot.

So, IF I pick third and everyone else has Player A third and I have Player B, who they have at 7, third...shouldn't I take Player B?  And shouldn't we use our valuation discrepency as leverage?

I am sure in practice it works both ways.  As noted above and also, if valuation of Player A and Player B are nearly identical and Player A is asking for $100 and Player B says he will sign for less.

But the multiple ways to get there make valuing the result and deciphering the meaning more complex.  The value in time is clear, but the decision...Player B is better than Player A is a different decision than I like Player A and B the same but B is cheaper lets see how it goes.

Is that right?

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Baseball America on 4/27 and MLB on 4/25 both say it.  BA says he could have the best pure upside in the draft. MLB says he has the highest ceiling in the draft.

I could see it in terms of the light switch coming on type thing.

But Jones clearly has less volatility  to go with the tremendous upside.  Green is the only other defensible pick to me but even that I think would be a mistake.  Not Johnson or especially Lee.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I could see it in terms of the light switch coming on type thing.

But Jones clearly has less volatility  to go with the tremendous upside.  Green is the only other defensible pick to me but even that I think would be a mistake.  Not Johnson or especially Lee.

I think Green has the highest absolute ceiling.

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I could see it in terms of the light switch coming on type thing.

But Jones clearly has less volatility  to go with the tremendous upside.  Green is the only other defensible pick to me but even that I think would be a mistake.  Not Johnson or especially Lee.

You asked what credible sources recently said Green had the upside in the draft.  I gave you two very respected sources.  In reply you say yeah if the light switch goes on.  Duh!  Hate to tell you but that's what ceiling is for all of these guys.  Green has the highest ceiling according to most.  No problem, you want high ceiling combined with higher probability.  That's Jones compared to Green.  Just don't get all up in arms when someone makes the case that Brooks Lee has higher probability than Jones and maybe his ceiling is pretty high too. 

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You asked what credible sources recently said Green had the upside in the draft.  I gave you two very respected sources.  In reply you say yeah if the light switch goes on.  Duh!  Hate to tell you but that's what ceiling is for all of these guys.  Green has the highest ceiling according to most.  No problem, you want high ceiling combined with higher probability.  That's Jones compared to Green.  Just don't get all up in arms when someone makes the case that Brooks Lee has higher probability than Jones and maybe his ceiling is pretty high too. 

I realize your life’s goal is to be a total dick but I repped you for the sources (although you didn’t supply them..I’m just assuming you know how to read).

And I was just agreeing that I guess I could see the argument if the light switch goes on.  It’s a sh!t argument for Lee though.  Someone may have it but it’s not credible.  It’s ok though, we all know you are just trying to angle yourself to bow at the feet of Elias no matter what he does.  You don’t have to hide it.  Just admit that you are just going to go with what he does and talk yourself into it and that others who differ in opinion are just wrong and talking out of their ass.  It’s fine to be a sheep and just always give the benefit of the doubt to the people doing the job.  If that works for you, go with it.

 

[RZNJ]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I realize your life’s goal is to be a total dick but I repped you for the sources (although you didn’t supply them..I’m just assuming you know how to read).

And I was just agreeing that I guess I could see the argument if the light switch goes on.  It’s a sh!t argument for Lee though.  Someone may have it but it’s not credible.  It’s ok though, we all know you are just trying to angle yourself to bow at the feet of Elias no matter what he does.  You don’t have to hide it.  Just admit that you are just going to go with what he does and talk yourself into it and that others who differ in opinion are just wrong and talking out of their ass.  It’s fine to be a sheep and just always give the benefit of the doubt to the people doing the job.  If that works for you, go with it.

 

You either have a higher ceiling or you don't.  Reaching it might have something to do with a light switch.  Having it has nothing to do with a light switch.  How many times did you stay back in school. I'm taking the over.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You either have a higher ceiling or you don't. 

I'm going to disagree with that.

In my mind you have different categories of ceilings when it comes to evaluating players.

Say probable ceiling, reasonable ceiling and absolute ceiling.

You might be more willing to draft a guy on his 20% outcome than his 1% outcome.

 

[RZNJ]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm going to disagree with that.

In my mind you have different categories of ceilings when it comes to evaluating players.

Say probable ceiling, reasonable ceiling and absolute ceiling.

You might be more willing to draft a guy on his 20% outcome than his 1% outcome.

 

Disagree.  A ceiling is a ceiling.  Again, you're talking about probabilities of hitting an individual's ceiling.  Green, to many, has a higher ceiling than Jones because he has more power potential.  

Many people don't think Green will reach is power potential in game because of hitting deficiencies.   Whether he gets to 50% of his ceiling or 80% of his ceiling or never comes close doesn't change the fact that some see him as a 40 homer CF with speed and a cannon.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Disagree.  A ceiling is a ceiling.  Again, you're talking about probabilities of hitting an individual's ceiling.  Green, to many, has a higher ceiling than Jones because he has more power potential.  

To many?  You providing 2 sources, one of which used the word could, which isn’t exactly definitive.

Who are the many sources?   

[RZNJ]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

To many?  You providing 2 sources, one of which used the word could, which isn’t exactly definitive.

Who are the many sources?   

Haha. Baseball America and MLB are probably 2 of the most reputable if not the 2 most.  Plus, they are both forming their opinions from the input of many people.  You couldn't be any dumber.  But I bet you're going to prove me wrong on that.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha. Baseball America and MLB are probably 2 of the most reputable if not the 2 most.  Plus, they are both forming their opinions from the input of many people.  You couldn't be any dumber.  But I bet you're going to prove me wrong on that.

You cited 2 sources and somehow that’s many?  Is everyone in BA being represented with that opinion?  What about MLB?  Is it every writer, every person who speaks or did you get that from one person?  Who is saying it?  Show me the source because now I’m not sure you aren’t making it up.

You can’t have a conversation without being a giant piece of shit.  Your family should I have a go fund me page just for dealing with you.  They must hate their lives.

GFY.  

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You cited 2 sources and somehow that’s many?  Is everyone in BA being represented with that opinion?  What about MLB?  Is it every writer, every person who speaks or did you get that from one person?  Who is saying it?  Show me the source because now I’m not sure you aren’t making it up.

You can’t have a conversation without being a giant piece of shit.  Your family should I have a go fund me page just for dealing with you.  They must hate their lives.

GFY.  

Ta ta ta. Sports guy is using bad language. That's what dumb people do when they have nothing intelligent to say. Get off your lazy ass and click on mlb.  I have an online subscription to BA.  I would think a draftnik like you would have one too.  You want  me to copy and paste whole articles from pay services like your dumb ass does?  Haha.  If I was misrepresenting anything I challenge anyone to get me.  Keep reading your experts at joeschmoedraftexpert.com

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Ta ta ta. Sports guy is using bad language. That's what dumb people do when they have nothing intelligent to say. Get off your lazy ass and click on mlb.  I have an online subscription to BA.  I would think a draftnik like you would have one too.  You might me to copy and paste whole articles from pay services like your dumb ass does?  Haha.  If I was misrepresenting anything I challenge anyone to get me.  Keep reading your experts at joeschmoedraftexpert.com

I’m reading mlb and i see they have Jones ranked 1.  I don’t have a subscription to BA.

I’ll just assume you are a liar or misrepresenting something if you don’t want to prove it.  

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m reading mlb and i see they have Jones ranked 1.  I don’t have a subscription to BA.

I’ll just assume you are a liar or misrepresenting something if you don’t want to prove it.  

What an idiot.