Is the overslot strategy worth it?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well you can never have enough COF when you have Hays, Kjerstad, and Diaz. 

Don't forget DJ!

[OriolesMagic83]

I was a big fan of Nick Gonzalez, who was picked by the Pirates.  He's progressed well and is ranked the #18 prospect, w/ a .778 OPS at AA.  Gunnar's performance has put him in the shade, which makes me think there is no way Gunnar isn't above him in prospect rankings if he keeps his performance up.  I know the big point against Gonzalez was his stats were obtained at high altitude.  Obviously, he hasn't put up the kind of stats he did in college but his OBP has still been very good, .379 for his minor league career.  

I don't think the O's need another top 2B prospect, since they seem to have several prospects that could fit that spot, like Prieto and Norby. 

[RZNJ]

To review.  An underslot strategy is not worth it if you are passing on your #1 choice to take your #2 or #4 choice just to save $2M to spend on an overslot later on.     However, if the #1 player on your board is not the consensus #1 player and you save money by taking YOUR #1 player, then it makes all the sense in the world to YOU.

It's going to be tough to convince anyone that Jacob Berry or Brooks Lee are the actual #1 player on the Orioles board.   Most see the upside particularly in Druw Jones and don't see the realistic possibility that he isn't the best player in this draft.

If Druw Jones is the #1 player on the Orioles board, I do believe they'll take him as long as he'll sign for slot or a little less.

If Druw Jones is #1 on their board then taking Holliday or Berry to save 2M (the difference between 1:1 slot and 1:5 value) makes little sense.   

If the Orioles don't take Andruw Jones #1:

1) Jones was not clearly #1 on their board

or

2) Elias is not as smart as we hope he is

[Sports Guy]

There is zero chance Lee or Berry are #1 on their board.  Anyone believing they are just want to believe that Elias/the O's do know wrong.

And not everyone does BPA.

[Jammer7]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is zero chance Lee or Berry are #1 on their board.  Anyone believing they are just want to believe that Elias/the O's do know wrong.

And not everyone does BPA.

As far as I know, you are correct that Jones is #1. The only thing that would be a problem is if Druw has some character issues we don't know about. I've never heard anything like that, but we know that Elias and his staff put a huge emphasis on intangibles and character. I have faith that he and his scouts will take the best player available that they believe they can best develop.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

As far as I know, you are correct that Jones is #1. The only thing that would be a problem is if Druw has some character issues we don't know about. I've never heard anything like that, but we know that Elias and his staff put a huge emphasis on intangibles and character. I have faith that he and his scouts will take the best player available that they believe they can best develop.

If Jones isn’t 1, I still don’t buy that either of those players would be ranked #1.

[Flash- bd]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

To review.  An underslot strategy is not worth it if you are passing on your #1 choice to take your #2 or #4 choice just to save $2M to spend on an overslot later on.     However, if the #1 player on your board is not the consensus #1 player and you save money by taking YOUR #1 player, then it makes all the sense in the world to YOU.

It's going to be tough to convince anyone that Jacob Berry or Brooks Lee are the actual #1 player on the Orioles board.   Most see the upside particularly in Druw Jones and don't see the realistic possibility that he isn't the best player in this draft.

If Druw Jones is the #1 player on the Orioles board, I do believe they'll take him as long as he'll sign for slot or a little less.

If Druw Jones is #1 on their board then taking Holliday or Berry to save 2M (the difference between 1:1 slot and 1:5 value) makes little sense.   

If the Orioles don't take Andruw Jones #1:

1) Jones was not clearly #1 on their board

or

2) Elias is not as smart as we hope he is

We took Rutschman, so...I think it is like you say, we went underslot with Cowser and Kjerstad because we didn't have anyone that stuck out as clearly #1 on our board at that point, like Rutschman did when we selected him. 

 

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

believe that Elias/the O's do know wrong.

I want to believe that Elias/the O's do know wrong, and always fight for the good!!

 

...okay, I'll get my coat. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

As far as I know, you are correct that Jones is #1. The only thing that would be a problem is if Druw has some character issues we don't know about. I've never heard anything like that, but we know that Elias and his staff put a huge emphasis on intangibles and character. I have faith that he and his scouts will take the best player available that they believe they can best develop.

Druw Jones is Andruw Jones' son, so I would hope there aren't any character issues growing up the son of an all star baseball player. Andruw Jones understands the MLB life and can guide Druw as he develops in MILB that should give him an advantage. 

[SpOkane]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There is zero chance Lee or Berry are #1 on their board.  Anyone believing they are just want to believe that Elias/the O's do know wrong.

And not everyone does BPA.

Hey, Elias, if you do wrong, at least do it right!

The Devil Makes Three - "Do Wrong Right" (Newport Folk Festival) - Bing video

[Jammer7]

12 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Druw Jones is Andruw Jones' son, so I would hope there aren't any character issues growing up the son of an all star baseball player. Andruw Jones understands the MLB life and can guide Druw as he develops in MILB that should give him an advantage. 

Yes, I know whose son he is. Rich kids can be spoiled, or whatever. I’m not saying he has issues, not at all. Just saying we don’t know. Elias’ scouts will find out, and it will be part of the decision making process.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, RZNJ said:

To review.  An underslot strategy is not worth it if you are passing on your #1 choice to take your #2 or #4 choice just to save $2M to spend on an overslot later on.     However, if the #1 player on your board is not the consensus #1 player and you save money by taking YOUR #1 player, then it makes all the sense in the world to YOU.

Is it this binary?   Let’s say there’s a 1 and a 2 and to you they’re very close but you have a slight preference for player 1.  However, player 1 is demanding $2.5 mm more than player 2.   I can see choosing player 2 even if you think player 1 is the BPA by a narrow margin.   

I’m not saying any of this applies this particular year (though it could).   I’m just speaking hypothetically.  
 

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Is it this binary?   Let’s say there’s a 1 and a 2 and to you they’re very close but you have a slight preference for player 1.  However, player 1 is demanding $2.5 mm more than player 2.   I can see choosing player 2 even if you think player 1 is the BPA by a narrow margin.   

I’m not saying any of this applies this particular year (though it could).   I’m just speaking hypothetically.  
 

And to be clear, you would be doing that because, in theory, you MAY be able to get someone who is an overslot that you value later.

So basically, you are taking a lesser player on the chance you get an even lesser player who has more upside than other lesser players taken later in the draft.

 

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And to be clear, you would be doing that because, in theory, you MAY be able to get someone who is an overslot that you value later.

So basically, you are taking a lesser player on the chance you get an even lesser player who has more upside than other lesser players taken later in the draft.

 

I think the term “lesser player” is misleading.  The truth is, nobody knows who the best player in the draft will turn out to be.   Teams can put a subjective probability on who will turn out to be the best.   They will be wrong a lot of the time.  How often has the 1-1 pick turned out to be the best player drafted?   Very rarely.   

So let’s say Player A you think has a 50% chance to be an all-star level and later.  Player B you think has a 49% chance.   After that there’s a big drop and a bunch of guys in the 25-35% range, most of whom will be gone by the time you make your second pick except for 1-2 guys who are demanding overslot.   You might very well take the 49% guy over the 50% guy to have money to get the 25% guy with your second pick, if otherwise you’re getting a 15% guy with that pick.  

Now, I’m stating all this in very simplistic terms.   I’m sure the data points that go into making these decisions are much more complex than I’m stating here.   

And again, I only think this comes into play if the top choices are really close. 


 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the term “lesser player” is misleading.  The truth is, nobody knows who the best player in the draft will turn out to be.   Teams can put a subjective probability on who will turn out to be the best.   They will be wrong a lot of the time.  How often has the 1-1 pick turned out to be the best player drafted?   Very rarely.   

So let’s say Player A you think has a 50% chance to be an all-star level and later.  Player B you think has a 49% chance.   After that there’s a big drop and a bunch of guys in the 25-35% range, most of whom will be gone by the time you make your second pick except for 1-2 guys who are demanding overslot.   You might very well take the 49% guy over the 50% guy to have money to get the 25% guy with your second pick, if otherwise you’re getting a 15% guy with that pick.  

Now, I’m stating all this in very simplistic terms.   I’m sure the data points that go into making these decisions are much more complex than I’m stating here.   

And again, I only think this comes into play if the top choices are really close. 


 

It’s not misleading.  While stuff happens, the bottom line is that it’s rare to get anyone outside of the first round to become a regular ML contributor.

So that’s what you are gambling on.  

[RZNJ]

Berry is #2 in the draft when you combine hit tool (60) with power (65).   Druw Jones is (55) and (60).     Termarr Johnson is #1 with a (70) and (60).

Druw Jones is a 55 hit and 60 power.   

 

So, Jones is the best overall player but his hitting is not rated the best in the class.   Everyone would rather have the all-around better player but there is something to be said for getting potentially the best offensive player in the draft.   That would be Termarr Johnson or Jacob Berry.   According to MLB.

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/jackson-holliday-702616