Is the overslot strategy worth it?

[Sports Guy]

I was curious about how well teams did with overslot picks drafted after R1 and whether the strategy of waiting on the talent is worth it.

MLBdailydish.com kept some records of recent drafts.  They showed the picks up to pick #315 and what the overslot numbers were.  I was able to find the info they had for the drafts from 2014-2017.  The good thing here is that by this point, the players have had enough time to get to the majors and see if the investment was worth it.

The following players were paid at least 500K or more above slot to sign.  I used 500K because for you to save a significant amount of money in R1 on a player, it would be used to sign guys that will demand a higher bonus.  Everyone can do the 200-400K above slot guys.

2014: 

• Scott Blewett: 797K over slot
• Gareth Morgan: 1.2M
• Justin Steele: 640K

2015:

• Daz Cameron: 2.3M over slot
• Triston MacKenzie: 834K
• Eric Jenkins: 639K
• Michael Matuella: 1.2M
• Jalen Miller: 501K
• Dakota Chalmers: 613K
• Darryl Wilson: 797K
• Gray Fenter: 821K

2016:

• Taylor Trammel: 1.6M over slot
• Joey Wentz: 1.4M
• Kevin Gowdy: 1.96M
• Chris Okey: 502K
• Reggie Lawson: 994K
• Brett Cumberland: 661K
• Mason Thompson: 1M
• Jesus Luzardo: 764K
• Nolan Martinez: 542K
• Bryse Wilson: 653K

2017:

• Gavin Sheets: 600K
• MJ Melendez: 800K
• Matt Sauer: 1.2M
• Sam Carlson: 800K
• Hans Crouse: 500K
• Blake Hunt: 750K
• Freddy Tarnok: 740K
• Nick Allen: 1.3M
• Sam McMillan: 687K
• Mason McCoy: 500K
• Jeremiah Estrada: 775K

 

A few things stand out:

 

1) Not many guys go for a lot over slot in any given draft.  Some years will be more than others of course but overall, its not a lot of players.  

2) Most of these guys are names you either have never heard of or you heard about them around the draft and forgot they existed.

3) Very few made the ML at all and even less than that have provided any level of impact.

 

Now, I know people will point to the success the Os have had with some overslot selections and that's true to an extent.  I mean, none of them have shown anything at the ML level yet, so we don't know if they will be worth it in the end or not but I think you love the potential.

 

Gunnar got just over 500K. Mayo got 1.2M over. Baumler got 422K over.  Willems got 800K over.  Rhodes got 500K over.

 

I believe those are the larger over slot bonuses handed outbid Elias.  Certainly a mixed bag and again, obviously no ML experience yet.  

I am sure there will be some other drafts that may show more talent getting over slot where we have actual ML data but I do think this represents what you likely get in the draft, since its such a crapshoot anyway.

So please, stop worrying about some over slot players later and get the best talent you can.

 

[panick]

Is there information about the first round players in these years that were paid slot or above? It would be interesting to see how many of them ever made it to the majors.

As you said, the draft is a crapshoot.

[MurphDogg]

Jake Arrieta was an overslot 5th rounder and he won a Cy Young Award.

I'm just not sure there are enough data points to make any determinations.

Any list of draftees will be peppered with guys that didn't make it. Tough to be surprised that a fifth rounder that was paid like a third rounder didn't make it when only 2 third rounders from the same draft produced anything in the Majors.

Also, I don't think we are ready to pass judgments on the high schoolers from the 2016 and 2017 drafts quite yet.

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, panick said:

Is there information about the first round players in these years that were paid slot or above? It would be interesting to see how many of them ever made it to the majors.

As you said, the draft is a crapshoot.

Sure there is but the first rounders are irrelevant to this aspect of things because the discussion is revolved around spending less on that first pick to spend more later.

[btdart20]

The data is certainly tough to dig through.  Lots of moving pieces as well.

Of the 11 over-slot guys you have listed in 2017, 9 were drafted from HS.  It's a gamble, for sure.  But I look at it like getting into a private company before it IPOs.  There's no guarantee either way, but it's a way of using one years draft to get ahead of a player's college uptrend.  

There are at least 3 guys on the path to be difference makers out of the 32 names you have listed (Luzardo, McKenzie, Melendez).  Guess it depends on where the teams went under-slot to be able to pay these 32 players to compare hit rates.

Luzardo - #94 (Was had no 1st, took Carter Kieboom and Dane Dunning @ #28/29, Sheldon Neuse @ #58 - all have played in the MLB)

McKenzie - #42 (in 2015 Cle took Brady Aiken at 1.17 - In 2014 Aiken was drafted 1.1 by Houston.  Ranked #1 by Keith Law in 2014 and drafted by Houston while Elias was there.  Houston offered him $1.5m below slot.  Ultimately, Aiken didn't sign and it removed the draft slot money from the rest of their pool of money.  Meaning, the over-slot guy couldn't sign either.  He had TJ surgery before the 2015 draft and must not have returned to form because his MiLB numbers weren't good.  Cleveland knew about the TJ surgery and still took the gamble.)

Melendez - #52 (KC took Nick Pratto at 1.14 - both still considered top prospects).

A 10% shot at a difference maker and still have a 3/5 hit rate on the other picks.  And the 4th/Pratto looking like he'll soon be a hit.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Great thread.

[Sports Guy]

19 hours ago, btdart20 said:

The data is certainly tough to dig through.  Lots of moving pieces as well.

Of the 11 over-slot guys you have listed in 2017, 9 were drafted from HS.  It's a gamble, for sure.  But I look at it like getting into a private company before it IPOs.  There's no guarantee either way, but it's a way of using one years draft to get ahead of a player's college uptrend.  

There are at least 3 guys on the path to be difference makers out of the 32 names you have listed (Luzardo, McKenzie, Melendez).  Guess it depends on where the teams went under-slot to be able to pay these 32 players to compare hit rates.

Luzardo - #94 (Was had no 1st, took Carter Kieboom and Dane Dunning @ #28/29, Sheldon Neuse @ #58 - all have played in the MLB)

McKenzie - #42 (in 2015 Cle took Brady Aiken at 1.17 - In 2014 Aiken was drafted 1.1 by Houston.  Ranked #1 by Keith Law in 2014 and drafted by Houston while Elias was there.  Houston offered him $1.5m below slot.  Ultimately, Aiken didn't sign and it removed the draft slot money from the rest of their pool of money.  Meaning, the over-slot guy couldn't sign either.  He had TJ surgery before the 2015 draft and must not have returned to form because his MiLB numbers weren't good.  Cleveland knew about the TJ surgery and still took the gamble.)

Melendez - #52 (KC took Nick Pratto at 1.14 - both still considered top prospects).

A 10% shot at a difference maker and still have a 3/5 hit rate on the other picks.  And the 4th/Pratto looking like he'll soon be a hit.

10% isn’t big enough to pass on a superior talent though.

And btw, these teams could have still taken these guys as well.  It just means you can’t spend as much as you go through your draft.

[Can_of_corn]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

10% isn’t big enough to pass on a superior talent though.

And btw, these teams could have still taken these guys as well.  It just means you can’t spend as much as you go through your draft.

You can also exceed your pool.

[Frobby]

First of all, this is really good research and I always like being presented with some facts, rather than rhetoric.  

I will say that the story hasn’t necessarily been written yet on all these guys, especially the high school guys from 2016-17.   I haven’t gone through the list in detail, but at some point I will.

I generally agree with your conclusion.   I do think it depends a bit on exactly what your opinion is about the gap in talent between one guy and the next, and what it is they are demanding in salary.  You wouldn’t overlook a large gap in talent to save $500 k; if it’s very close to a toss-up in your opinion, then maybe you do.     

 

[Can_of_corn]

21 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Jake Arrieta was an overslot 5th rounder and he won a Cy Young Award.

I'm just not sure there are enough data points to make any determinations.

Any list of draftees will be peppered with guys that didn't make it. Tough to be surprised that a fifth rounder that was paid like a third rounder didn't make it when only 2 third rounders from the same draft produced anything in the Majors.

Also, I don't think we are ready to pass judgments on the high schoolers from the 2016 and 2017 drafts quite yet.

Jake was under the old rules which didn't cap spending.

There was no penalty for "going overslot" (no actual slots) back then.

[Frobby]

The Astros’ 2015 draft is interesting.   They went $1.5 mm under slot for Alex Bregman at no. 2 ($5.9 mm signing), $200 k under slot for Kyle Tucker at no. 5 ($4 mm), then $2.3 mm overslot for Daz Cameron at no. 37.    Bregman and Tucker have both been fantastic picks; Daz has made it to the majors but has largely been a non-factor.   Notably, the amounts saved on Bregman and Tucker are less than the overslot payment to Cameron, so the Astros had to go underslot on some later picks to get Cameron.   Overall, I’m sure Astros fans aren’t complaining about a draft that yielded two star players.  They also signed Myles Straw (4.8 rWAR) for $100 k as a 12th rounder, and Patrick Sandoval (3.2 rWAR) for $900 k as an overslot 11th rounder.   All in all, a very interesting and successful draft that has produced 42 rWAR already.   

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Jake was under the old rules which didn't cap spending.

There was no penalty for "going overslot" (no actual slots) back then.

What year did the “soft cap” start?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What year did the “soft cap” start?

The hard slot was 2012.

Suggested values should have been in place in the prior CBA so 2007-2011.

Jake was drafted in 2007.

Rick Porcello was also drafted in 2007 and got 7M as the #27 pick.

 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The Astros’ 2015 draft is interesting.   They went $1.5 mm under slot for Alex Bregman at no. 2 ($5.9 mm signing), $200 k under slot for Kyle Tucker at no. 5 ($4 mm), then $2.3 mm overslot for Daz Cameron at no. 37.    Bregman and Tucker have both been fantastic picks; Daz has made it to the majors but has largely been a non-factor.   Notably, the amounts saved on Bregman and Tucker are less than the overslot payment to Cameron, so the Astros had to go underslot on some later picks to get Cameron.   Overall, I’m sure Astros fans aren’t complaining about a draft that yielded two star players.  They also signed Myles Straw (4.8 rWAR) for $100 k as a 12th rounder, and Patrick Sandoval (3.2 rWAR) for $900 k as an overslot 11th rounder.   All in all, a very interesting and successful draft that has produced 42 rWAR already.   

Cameron was also the main piece in the Verlander trade.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cameron was also the main piece in the Verlander trade.  

Ah yes the trade for expensive veteran pitcher strategy that folks thought we would emulate.

Has worked well for them.