Is the overslot strategy worth it?

[Sports Guy]

And btw, you could offer Jones 8.5M (slot is 8.8) and there is zero chance he is turning that down.  

 

 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We have a huge amount of money to spend.  That’s not debatable.  Yes, it’s not infinite but it’s one of the largest pools in history.  They can go BPA with 1:1 and still easily go over slot, likely multiple times.

I think you’re right that under the circumstances this year an underslot/overslot strategy isn’t very likely.   

[btdart20]

20 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Elias went under-slot in the previous years to maximize the draft pool to build as much depth as he could. I believe he calculated the value of all players available and selected the best player in their evaluation that they could get the most from as a player. He leveraged their general status. It remains to be seen if that was right or not. Opinions vary. He could not have seen Kjerstad’s path so far. And I’m not worried about Cowser, not yet.

This seems like the year he can justify taking a riskier/toolsy pick. Maybe it’ll be Greene, who knows? The depth is built up and he can begin dealing from the depth. 

There's much more to determining the historical success/failure of using some type of under/over-slot draft strategy than what I've seen (on this thread or otherwise).  

I get the impression that 'it depends' is the safe answer so far on whether or not a team should use BPA or a version of the under/over-slot strategy.  Draft class, org depth, developmental strengths, not just for the O's but our competitors too, and a host of other variables.  It's like investing and building a portfolio.  Do you go all in on a player/stock you think is prime to hit?  Or do you dollar-cost-average in to fill you're buy order?  It depends on your risk profile and goals.  1.1 should nearly always go BPA.  Same for the first few 1st round picks.  How much better can it get for the player if they don't sign?  What are the odds of them sitting out a year and being drafted higher/signed for more the following year?  Depending on the variables, the later 1st round picks could increase the value of the under/over-slot strategy.

I'm interested in the quant analysis that goes into the modeling.  I'm sure it's got some game theory and model portfolio analysis combined with normal baseball stats/probability.

I agree that the O's have a bit more depth than we've had previously.  It definitely has to do with hitting on/developing some talent later in the draft.  Whether or not they could have signed them otherwise is debatable.  Probably yes, but not a lock.  

Regarding the 2022 draft:  Agree that with the org depth, draft class, 1.1 spot, additional comp picks, and need for top end talent lends itself to going BPA at 1.1 especially.  

[Jammer7]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I get the impression that 'it depends' is the safe answer so far on whether or not a team should use BPA or a version of the under/over-slot strategy.  Draft class, org depth, developmental strengths, not just for the O's but our competitors too, and a host of other variables.  It's like investing and building a portfolio.  Do you go all in on a player/stock you think is prime to hit?  Or do you dollar-cost-average in to fill you're buy order?  It depends on your risk profile and goals.  1.1 should nearly always go BPA.  Same for the first few 1st round picks.  How much better can it get for the player if they don't sign?  What are the odds of them sitting out a year and being drafted higher/signed for more the following year?  Depending on the variables, the later 1st round picks could increase the value of the under/over-slot strategy.

I'm interested in the quant analysis that goes into the modeling.  I'm sure it's got some game theory and model portfolio analysis combined with normal baseball stats/probability.

I agree with your entire post. The quoted was of particular interest. They have their data, their model. They know what player type they can develop best, based on a host of factors. Absolutely. That is why when Elias said he picked their BPA, I give him the benefit of the doubt. Their model likely had the players in consideration and the best value was who they chose. It may not have been the “sexy” pick, but it was who they felt would prosper or provide the most value their organization.

There are so many factors the general fan base has no idea about. Players today are completely different than players 15-20 years ago. The things that make them successful, and what is their motivation, just a world apart. I would love to be a fly on the wall in one of Elias’ scouting meeting for the draft. It wouldn’t do much good to listen to Sig, though. He could dumb it down for me and I doubt I will get it. Old dog, new tricks and all. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

For what it’s worth I’d rather have Kjerstad as a maybe or unknown with potential right now than the Austin Martin to date. The other guys we were able to get (mayo and Baumler) are icing on the cake 

[RZNJ]

6 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

For what it’s worth I’d rather have Kjerstad as a maybe or unknown with potential right now than the Austin Martin to date. The other guys we were able to get (mayo and Baumler) are icing on the cake 

Try and find someone now who admits to being upset that we didn't take Martin at the time.   They're out there but they're awfully quiet.

[Jammer7]

On 5/14/2022 at 5:11 AM, RZNJ said:

Try and find someone now who admits to being upset that we didn't take Martin at the time.   They're out there but they're awfully quiet.

I preferrred Martin, on draft day. But once I dug in on Kjerstad, I really liked his whole game. I never looked close at him before that. Hopefully, he gets started soon.

Edit: Upon reflection, I actually wanted Asa Lacy on draft day. Martin’s lack of position was an issue for me. Lacy has struggled as well.

[Sports Guy]

I liked Martin early in the process but as time went on, I didn’t want him.  Still glad they took Kjerstad over him.  I just wish we had taken Veen instead.

And while you can say Martin turned into Berrios, the Orioles wouldn’t have flipped Martin that quickly.  I personally think Toronto realized Martin wasn’t as good as advertised and took advantage of his hype.  Smart move by them especially since they have also signed Berrios long term.

The thing I would love to know about that draft is did Elias ever consider a pitcher?  I’m of the opinion that it was never on the table for him to take a pitcher at 2, so I didn’t really mind that they passed on one.  But I do wonder if it was a consideration and if so, who was at the top of their list.  I was team Meyer and again, I’m glad we took Kjerstad over Lacy, who was the pitcher most seemed to want.

[Jammer7]

On 5/14/2022 at 7:54 AM, Sports Guy said:

I liked Martin early in the process but as time went on, I didn’t want him.  Still glad they took Kjerstad over him.  I just wish we had taken Veen instead.

And while you can say Martin turned into Berrios, the Orioles wouldn’t have flipped Martin that quickly.  I personally think Toronto realized Martin wasn’t as good as advertised and took advantage of his hype.  Smart move by them especially since they have also signed Berrios long term.

The thing I would love to know about that draft is did Elias ever consider a pitcher?  I’m of the opinion that it was never on the table for him to take a pitcher at 2, so I didn’t really mind that they passed on one.  But I do wonder if it was a consideration and if so, who was at the top of their list.  I was team Meyer and again, I’m glad we took Kjerstad over Lacy, who was the pitcher most seemed to want.

I remember Elias saying he did look closely at a pitcher. I am not sure who it was, Inwould guess Lacy. Big LH with considerable college and summer experience. I was on Martin early too, but the lack of positional value got me off him. I eventually moved to Lacy and Veen. I wasn’t into Meyer, his build and delivery had me passing on him. 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

I remember Elias saying he did look closely at a pitcher. I am not sure who it was, Inwould guess Lacy. Big LH with considerable college and summer experience. I was on Martin early too, but the lack of positional value got me off him. I eventually moved to Lacy and Veen. I wasn’t into Meyer, his build and delivery had me passing on him. 

I was on Meyer because I loved hearing his command was elite.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm pretty sure I wanted Martin at the time. 

Oh well.

[Chaka Garcia]

Looking at the early numbers, last year draft looks like a flop, none of the college guys seem to be elite talent at MLB level. I know, I know, it’s early.

I wish they would get the best and consider top tier high school talent at the first round.

[sportsfan8703]

Would you rather have Cowser, Rhodes, and Willems or Lawler the SS. I’d probably rather go with the latter. One yearish later. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Would you rather have Cowser, Rhodes, and Willems or Lawler the SS. I’d probably rather go with the latter. One yearish later. 

That's assuming that room couldn't have been made for one of Rhodes or Willems.

Team pick overslot players later in the draft despite paying slot or near slot in the first round.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's assuming that room couldn't have been made for one of Rhodes or Willems.

Team pick overslot players later in the draft despite paying slot or near slot in the first round.

Well you can never have enough COF when you have Hays, Kjerstad, and Diaz.