The Teixeira Watch: Part IV

[UMDTerrapins]

We're dealing with some very competent negotiators. It is absolutely a process. Boras has to go through all the steps to maximize the deal. At some point in the process each of the four teams has to say this is where we stop the escalation. Today's media reports tell me that the O's have reached that point. This is good. It means that Orioles are done driving the price higher and are waiting on the other teams to do the same. IF Tex seriously wants to play in Baltimore (and I think it is his preference based on what I've read), Boras will give us a last chance to sweeten our offer. He'll also give the teams that are not the semi-final winners a chance to increase, but I think we do get the last word. Ours probably won't be the best one he has on the table in the end. But it will be good enough IMO.

Something may have happened last night, but that was more likely completion of a framework of a deal (opt out, no-trade clauses, etc). The final numbers and duration are still being negotiated. But this looks like it's reaching a head. Again, thinking about what we've heard from all angles, I feel no less excited that Tex may very well choose Baltimore. Just my read of the situation.

[Bart in LA]

I think thre is actually a scenario which weaves together much of what has been reported on ESPN, OH, etc. is as follows:

-- The Orioles want to sign Tex very badly and, having developed a decent relationship with Boras through the Weiters signing, have asked Tex/Boras to give them the final right to make an offer before Tex finalizes anything.

-- The O's want to do that to maximize their ability to get Tex AND to be able to say to fans we made a competitive bid but just didn't get him.

-- It fits Angelos' negotiating tactics -- he likes to win and he is obsessed with getting Tex.

-- It's easier on MacPhail as there is less haggling involved.

-- Tex authorized Boras to go with that approach because, all things being relatively equal financially he wants to play for his home team.

-- Boras is OK with it since it maximizes the contract potential and keeps more teams jumping through hoops. It's a far better scenario for the player's money side to prolong having a large number of teams bidding.

-- Olney's report is "right" in the sense that the O's ARE "out of it" IF they don't increase their bid -- that is his report and he is right -- until the O's make a topping offer or their best offer or their WOW offer as some have called it - they WOULD be out of it -- but the above scenario allows for olney to be right, too -- the O's just have positioned themselves to make their last best and final offer, well, last.

-- That scenario would also explain Ravech's scenario.

-- That scenario also fits in with the OH insiders "confidence" --

-- It would also explain why my Nationals friend thinks he likes the Nats' chances since they probably DO have the best offer on the table -- as of now.

-- It even makes Rosenthal's nutty report this morning (about why don't the Yanks get involved) as it fits with Boras seeking last best and final offers.

-- It fits with the Scioscia's statement suggesting the Angels are out of it having given it their best shot -- since they were probably told their best offer was not good enough.

What do you think -- insiders esepcially.

[sector7g]

How many of the national media guys have legitimate sources that are on the inside of this thing and have up to date info? I'm convinced that a lot of what is written is Olney or whoever reading between the lines of tidbits or comments they've heard from guys who heard it from someone else. At some point down that line opinion became fact and it all gets played out of hand. Remember, they HAVE to write something.....unless the want to find a new line of work.

There can only be a handful of guys that actually KNOW what is happening right now and I imagine all of them are currently too busy to post here.

[nadecir]

Who knows? Olney can be right, or he may not be. But I bet you Olney believes his source. Every time Olney writes an article like today's, he puts his professional reputation on the line. Readers have a long memory, and he certainly has no desire to be tarnish his reputation.

Just think about how many times Roch is going to hear about his guaranteeing that Adam Loewen will sign with the Orioles in his lifetime, before you think that Olney would report something he doesn't believe in.

[Lucky Jim]

Which is either very good or very bad.

AM is very good at keeping things to himself and sending out misleading signals...but AM is not a liar.

So, who really knows? I am not sure what to believe...I tend to side with our insiders because I think it is very coincidental that the media is all hearing the same thing and the media is the exact group of people AM would want to mislead...especially in a negotiation like this...with a Boras client.

This is my take, too. I have the utmost faith in AM's strategic intelligence. Likewise, Boras's. In fact, I likewise discounted the positive media yesterday because it seemed like exactly the kind of thing Boras would plant to drive up the bidding. Frankly, I haven't trusted any info anywhere throughout this whole thing.

The other wildcard is the fact that - as we know from the Wieters negotiations - AM runs a tight, tight ship. Which makes any insider info that doesn't come from his very small inner circle inherently unreliable. That's not a critique: all information is valuable. But you have to know how to weigh it based on it's attenuation and origin.

It really is a sit back and wait situation, though we're all so anxious that that's virtually impossible.

I'm not hopeful, because I don't think the numbers (W/L mostly) are in our favor, but it is interesting.

[The Rick]

This is my take, too. I have the utmost faith in AM's strategic intelligence. Likewise, Boras's. In fact, I likewise discounted the positive media yesterday because it seemed like exactly the kind of thing Boras would plant to drive up the bidding. Frankly, I haven't trusted any info anywhere throughout this whole thing.

The other wildcard is the fact that - as we know from the Wieters negotiations - AM runs a tight, tight ship. Which makes any insider info that doesn't come from his very small inner circle inherently unreliable. That's not a critique: all information is valuable. But you have to know how to weigh it based on it's attenuation and origin.

It really is a sit back and wait situation, though we're all so anxious that that's virtually impossible.

I'm not hopeful, because I don't think the numbers (W/L mostly) are in our favor, but it is interesting.

Great post, and I agree. I'm off work today, and hell if i'm going to sit around and stalk the Tex Watch threads. Doing that yesterday was enough for me.

[TJ Wrangler]

Just got a call from my father, who is the one I claimed had a source. Read into this as much as you want, but I am in no way claiming to have a valid source.

That said, I was told Teixeira would sign with Boston for 8 years and 192 million, with options for an 9th and 10th year, and an opt out clause after 6 years.

This is also coming from someone who said Boston wasn't as serious of a player as the media said, so maybe something bad happened somewhere.

[Greg Pappas]

I think thre is actually a scenario which weaves together much of what has been reported on ESPN, OH, etc. is as follows:

-- The Orioles want to sign Tex very badly and, having developed a decent relationship with Boras through the Weiters signing, have asked Tex/Boras to give them the final right to make an offer before Tex finalizes anything.

-- The O's want to do that to maximize their ability to get Tex AND to be able to say to fans we made a competitive bid but just didn't get him.

-- It fits Angelos' negotiating tactics -- he likes to win and he is obsessed with getting Tex.

-- It's easier on MacPhail as there is less haggling involved.

-- Tex authorized Boras to go with that approach because, all things being relatively equal financially he wants to play for his home team.

-- Boras is OK with it since it maximizes the contract potential and keeps more teams jumping through hoops. It's a far better scenario for the player's money side to prolong having a large number of teams bidding.

-- Olney's report is "right" in the sense that the O's ARE "out of it" IF they don't increase their bid -- that is his report and he is right -- until the O's make a topping offer or their best offer or their WOW offer as some have called it - they WOULD be out of it -- but the above scenario allows for olney to be right, too -- the O's just have positioned themselves to make their last best and final offer, well, last.

-- That scenario would also explain Ravech's scenario.

-- That scenario also fits in with the OH insiders "confidence" --

-- It would also explain why my Nationals friend thinks he likes the Nats' chances since they probably DO have the best offer on the table -- as of now.

-- It even makes Rosenthal's nutty report this morning (about why don't the Yanks get involved) as it fits with Boras seeking last best and final offers.

-- It fits with the Scioscia's statement suggesting the Angels are out of it having given it their best shot -- since they were probably told their best offer was not good enough.

What do you think -- insiders esepcially.

A well-considered post. An interesting take, certainly.

[DuffMan]

Belkast did say to wait for the next media report to come out, I'm wondering if this what he thought would said.

For the Record I think we are still in it, and have a good chance of landing Tex and until he signs with someone else I stand by that.

[Sports Guy]

I also find it interesting that you are hearing nothing from Boras.

[tywright]

Someone please refresh my memory: Who was the first to report Wieters got signed? Was it an insider?

[UMDTerrapins]

I think thre is actually a scenario which weaves together much of what has been reported on ESPN, OH, etc. is as follows:

-- The Orioles want to sign Tex very badly and, having developed a decent relationship with Boras through the Weiters signing, have asked Tex/Boras to give them the final right to make an offer before Tex finalizes anything.

-- The O's want to do that to maximize their ability to get Tex AND to be able to say to fans we made a competitive bid but just didn't get him.

-- It fits Angelos' negotiating tactics -- he likes to win and he is obsessed with getting Tex.

-- It's easier on MacPhail as there is less haggling involved.

-- Tex authorized Boras to go with that approach because, all things being relatively equal financially he wants to play for his home team.

-- Boras is OK with it since it maximizes the contract potential and keeps more teams jumping through hoops. It's a far better scenario for the player's money side to prolong having a large number of teams bidding.

-- Olney's report is "right" in the sense that the O's ARE "out of it" IF they don't increase their bid -- that is his report and he is right -- until the O's make a topping offer or their best offer or their WOW offer as some have called it - they WOULD be out of it -- but the above scenario allows for olney to be right, too -- the O's just have positioned themselves to make their last best and final offer, well, last.

-- That scenario would also explain Ravech's scenario.

-- That scenario also fits in with the OH insiders "confidence" --

-- It would also explain why my Nationals friend thinks he likes the Nats' chances since they probably DO have the best offer on the table -- as of now.

-- It even makes Rosenthal's nutty report this morning (about why don't the Yanks get involved) as it fits with Boras seeking last best and final offers.

-- It fits with the Scioscia's statement suggesting the Angels are out of it having given it their best shot -- since they were probably told their best offer was not good enough.

What do you think -- insiders esepcially.

This is exactly my read of the situation too. Well summarized.

[TyCobb]

Someone please refresh my memory: Who was the first to report Wieters got signed? Was it an insider?

Sonny. Weeks before the deadline and said that it would happen in the last minutes.

[semaj2989]

it is absolutely pointless to watch sportscenter right now. all they are talking about every 5 minutes is how the orioles are out..... LIKELY. im sick and tired of hearing this uninformed lady talk about it. I think im gonna go work out or something... hopefully ill come back to some real news.

[Spoonless]

I also find it interesting that you are hearing nothing from Boras.

He's probably sitting back, laughing as the media and teams do all his work for him.