The Teixeira Watch: Part V - AM says the O's "have flexibility" on Tex

[geschinger]

That's true it does come from subscriptions but if there ratings go down the tiolet the cable companies won't want any part of them

That's the beauty of MASN... What the cable companies want doesn't really matter in the end... MASN takes them to court and forces them to carry them and pay the freight. It's a great racket and the providers take the PR hit when they are forced to raise rates.

[jcroemer]

Never seen that addressed, but I seriously doubt it 95 wins = substantially more revenue than 90 wins. Winning team gets good ad buys. I don't think there are advertisers waiting to pay a premium the last few weeks of the season if the team has a few extra wins.

Check out Chapter 13, What is a Baseball Player Worth? in JC Bradbury's "The Baseball Economist" and then 5.2 in "Baseball Between the Numbers" by Baseball Propsectus

[OrioleBird79]

Sounds like 7/150 is the most the O's "wow offer" could have been. I wouldn't have called it a wow offer, but it's a good start.

My take fwiw - it's down to Boston and Baltimore, but I can't shake the feeling that Baltimore is being used, and the decision was made to go to Boston unless Baltimore blows away Boston's offer - which won't likely happen.

7/150 was the Orioles first offer. I highly doubt that they will not budge on this, like going to an 8th year at the same rate. Let's say 8/175. If that got it done then he would be an Oriole. The bidding has to be higher than 8/180 IMO.

[Bearcat Brooks]

I think the only reason the Nats have a chance is because Boras wants them in to drive the price up on the O's

[geschinger]

Check out Chapter 13, What is a Baseball Player Worth? in JC Bradbury's "The Baseball Economist"

I don't have the book but are we talking about the same thing - advertising revenue? I can see the extra wins meaning more in attendance to the very end and playoffs = a huge revenue bump. But I can't see that being the case with a team's cable network advertising.

[Pruke]

He'll probably wear 23 when he gets here

He'll also likely be 50 years old by the time this thing is done!

[alskor]

I'm going to go back to agreeing with you. The only reasonable argument in favor is future scarcity - i.e., no talent when we'll be needing to purchase it. But:

1.) I don't think that's a safe assumption because ML-ready talent at first base isn't that hard to come by;

2.) it fails to take into account the peripheral problem of the opt-out: if there's an opt-out, even the slightest delay in our progression creates huge costs and no gain;

3.) we'd be saving so much money in the two down years of non-competing that when we apply it at the point of our competitiveness, we could really score some talent.

I will disagree with you, however, that this is - exclusively - a win-now move. I think we could easily compete with a team based on youth and a .825-.850 OPS Teix (playing good defense) at first.

I've got not problem with that version of him on the backside of the contract.

The real problem is just how much money we're wagering ($110m?) that we'll compete within the first five years of his contract.

That's a fair point. If this wasnt a situation where we didnt have to outbid four other teams - including three super high payroll clubs - than I would agree wholeheartedly. The argument of whether he is worth it isnt made in a vacuum, though. Right now it looks like the O's are going to have to make some insane offer to land him.

So I cant justify the move on the fact his decline wouldnt kill us. That seems to be the justification for many here - he's a great hitter so even the downside wont be that bad. Its probably true. BUT that's not really a reason to go full bore, all out nuts after a guy who is going to cost this much. Still, Ill amend it to "this is primarily a 'win now' move."

Let me again say, too, that wanting Tex because he's a hometown guy and its a great story - totally legitimate reason to want him to sign here. Also, if you dont want the O's to lose anything to the Sox or Yanks ever, even a free agent - also a legit reason. I just dont understand why people are trying soooo hard and bending the truth to justify this move beyond that. No one is going to call you a fool for wanting Tex to sign with the O's because youre sick of losing! Just be aware there are very serious and possibly dire consequences to giving out $200 million deals. It can affect this baseball team in a very negative way - and "winning" this free agent war cant become more important that building an organization that can sustain success. It cant be more important than putting a championship caliber team around Matt Wieters in his prime, for instance. Im not saying signing Tex would do that necessarily, but the risk is very real... and every hour the price (and risk) seem to go up...

[jcroemer]

I don't have the book but are we talking about the same thing - advertising revenue? I can see the extra wins meaning more in attendance to the very end and playoffs = a huge revenue bump. But I can't see that being the case with a team's cable network advertising.

you are talking about bumps in gate receipts, concessions, luxury suite and club seat revenues, merchandise, local media broadcast rights, etc

Then say you make the post-season in Year 2, you will see additional revenues due to your playoff run in Year 2 in years 3,4,5

[Guest rochester]

Sounds like 7/150 is the most the O's "wow offer" could have been. I wouldn't have called it a wow offer, but it's a good start.

My take fwiw - it's down to Boston and Baltimore, but I can't shake the feeling that Baltimore is being used, and the decision was made to go to Boston unless Baltimore blows away Boston's offer - which won't likely happen.

$21.5 million a year is pretty WOW to me!

[OrioleBird79]

No... nothing's happened pretty much all day except that the "Media" has gone from thinking the O's are in front of a 5 horse race to being packed up for glue in less than 24 hours.

In all fairness only Karl Ravech said we could be the leaders. Everyone else played off of his quote. I did not hear another outlet list the Orioles as the favorite. I think we fell from tied to first to 4th.

[Lucky Jim]

That's a fair point. If this wasnt a situation where we didnt have to outbid four other teams - including three super high payroll clubs - than I would agree wholeheartedly. The argument of whether he is worth it isnt made in a vacuum, though. Right now it looks like the O's are going to have to make some insane offer to land him.

So I cant justify the move on the fact his decline wouldnt kill us. That seems to be the justification for many here - he's a great hitter so even the downside wont be that bad. Its probably true. BUT that's not really a reason to go full bore, all out nuts after a guy who is going to cost this much. Still, Ill amend it to "this is primarily a 'win now' move."

Let me again say, too, that wanting Tex because he's a hometown guy and its a great story - totally legitimate reason to want him to sign here. Also, if you dont want the O's to lose anything to the Sox or Yanks ever, even a free agent - also a legit reason. I just dont understand why people are trying soooo hard and bending the truth to justify this move beyond that. No one is going to call you a fool for wanting Tex to sign with the O's because youre sick of losing! Just be aware there are very serious and possibly dire consequences to giving out $200 million deals. It can affect this baseball team in a very negative way - and "winning" this free agent war cant become more important that building an organization that can sustain success. It cant be more important than putting a championship caliber team around Matt Wieters in his prime, for instance. Im not saying signing Tex would do that necessarily, but the risk is very real... and every hour the price (and risk) seem to go up...

Don't you think it's more a win in 2-4 years move?

I don't like how specific that target is. Especially with the potential opt-out.

I think FA acquisitions should always be win now. I think the Tigers gambled and got away with it, when they bought a year early on Maggs. But they got him at a discount due to injury - we worked the discount angle, but it's not really there anymore...

[PaulBako]

Can't believe we're talking about 90 wins... :rolleyestf:

Let's try and get back to 80 again

80?

More like 70 the way our pitching is going to be horrible.

[JTrea81]

80?

More like 70 the way our pitching is going to be horrible.

They aren't done yet and won't be especially after adding Tex.

There are still plenty of pitchers out there to sign for the rotation.

[Redsoxfaninnh]

Sad but true that not only do most people care only about money but also cannot see it any other way.

I don't know much about Teixeira but I wonder how important status is to him. Those who suggest that he would be just another star in Boston are not wrong. He would be well received and is the kind of player who is very popular in Boston but he would own Baltimore.

Who wouldn't want that? Especially playing for the team you grew up rooting for. To this day, and now I am REALLY showing my age here, Tony Conigliaro is one of my all time favorite Red Sox. Why? He was one of the game's fastest rising young stars but, more importantly, he grew up just north of Boston.

Great...now I'm thinking Tex is going to sign with Baltimore. I'm bumming myself out

[jcroemer]

I don't know much about Teixeira but I wonder how important status is to him. Those who suggest that he would be just another star in Boston are not wrong. He would be well received and is the kind of player who is very popular in Boston but he would own Baltimore.

Who wouldn't want that? Especially playing for the team you grew up rooting for. To this day, and now I am REALLY showing my age here, Tony Conigliaro is one of my all time favorite Red Sox. Why? He was one of the game's fastest rising young stars but, more importantly, he grew up just north of Boston.

Great...now I'm thinking Tex is going to sign with Baltimore. I'm bumming myself out

He is. But you'll be okay, you've won two this decade and we haven't won.

Is there any word? I noticed nothing new in a while.