WAR, Witt vs AR

[jabba72]

Witt is probably going to have the longer career no question. If Adley becomes a 900 OPS hitter I do question if its smart to keep him at Catcher. I also think Adley has more upside with the bat. AR has shown much better pitch recognition skills than Witt does which could make a huge difference in their numbers going forward. Both are + defensively.

[Going Underground]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or we just don't currently have any MVP caliber Catchers playing right now.

For instance, fWAR (which includes framing) has Posey with five seasons of a WAR greater than 6.5.

There is an ebb and flow to which positions are the strongest.

3 catchers in the top 10 rankings for 2022. Some people think MJ Melendez should be ranked higher As with all prospects ,they are just prospects. 

[geschinger]

4 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

Even if they had equivalent offensive WAR, and I think Witt will be a much better hitter than Adley, then defensively 150+ games at 3B/SS will easily trump 125 games at catcher and 25 games at DH for defensive WAR

A catcher at 1-1 was a mistake

I don't think so because of the positonal scarcity others have mentioned.  I look at the 2019 draft and I see quite a few SS that a few years in have shown a legitimate shot to give you 80% (or more) of the yearly WAR that Witt does (assuming he lives up to the hype). I think the Orioles got one of them in Gunnar.  Other than Shea Langeliers not sure there are any other catchers who can do the same vs Adley. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

The positional adjustment is pretty much a wash since catching has the greatest positional adjustment.  Using Fangraphs, Catching is +12.5, SS is +7.5, 3B is +2.5, DH is -17.5, and 1B -12.5. Catching 125 and DHing 25 is about a 7 run net positive positional adjustment (6.95).  Playing SS for 150 is also about a 7 run net positive (6.94). If Witt DHs some or plays 3B the positional adjustment tilts in favor of Adley.  Regardless, they both play premium positions. So, its really about how well they hit, field, and run.  Another thing to keep in mind is that there are a lot more Shortstops and third baseman who excel offensively than there are catchers.  

Starting to think that the gap between the catcher and SS positional adjustment is too narrow. At least in current era.

[Going Underground]

14 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I don't think so because of the positonal scarcity others have mentioned.  I look at the 2019 draft and I see quite a few SS that a few years in have shown a legitimate shot to give you 80% (or more) of the yearly WAR that Witt does (assuming he lives up to the hype). I think the Orioles got one of them in Gunnar.  Other than Shea Langeliers not sure there are any other catchers who can do the same vs Adley. 

From 2022 MLB Top 100:

Baseball boasts its strongest group of catching prospects in more than a decade. Three backstops -- Adley Rutschman (Orioles), Gabriel Moreno (Blue Jays), Francisco Alvarez (Mets) -- rank in the first 10 spots of the Top 100, something that hasn't happened since MLB.com started ranking prospects in 2004. A dozen catchers made the list, which is also unprecedented.

 

But a prospect is a prospect.

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Starting to think that the gap between the catcher and SS positional adjustment is too narrow. At least in current era.

I assume, but don’t know, that the adjustment gets changed over time rather than just being static.  

[geschinger]

15 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

From 2022 MLB Top 100:

Baseball boasts its strongest group of catching prospects in more than a decade. Three backstops -- Adley Rutschman (Orioles), Gabriel Moreno (Blue Jays), Francisco Alvarez (Mets) -- rank in the first 10 spots of the Top 100, something that hasn't happened since MLB.com started ranking prospects in 2004. A dozen catchers made the list, which is also unprecedented.

 

But a prospect is a prospect.

Interesting collection, of the top 5 two 1/1 draft picks and the rest Venezuelan internatioonal signings.  Maybe it's different with this group, but in general it does seem like there is a bit of catcher inflation on the top prospect lists.   I'm might be missing someone but off the top of my head Will Smith is the only standout C I can think of that isn't on the wrong side of 30.

[jamalshw]

Witt is going to have the longer career. He's younger and in a position less demanding on the body. The original question is essentially though who will stay with their original team longest and I honestly don't have a clue. 

But I will say I think Rutschman has the higher WAR during the 6-7 years of team control prior to FA (or any extension years).

[Going Underground]

28 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Interesting collection, of the top 5 two 1/1 draft picks and the rest Venezuelan internatioonal signings.  Maybe it's different with this group, but in general it does seem like there is a bit of catcher inflation on the top prospect lists.   I'm might be missing someone but off the top of my head Will Smith is the only standout C I can think of that isn't on the wrong side of 30.

Keibert Ruiz from the Nationals is 23 . The Dodgers supposedly wouldn't give him up in the Machado trade  

[geschinger]

17 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Keibert Ruiz from the Nationals is 23 . The Dodgers supposedly wouldn't give him up in the Machado trade  

Ah, yep.  Could be more potentially decent C like that who graduated from prospect status while not yet establishing themselves yet.  He could definitely become a standout catcher - looks pretty good so far this year.