1500 Innings

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Harvey is basically the pitcher he is.  He's going to give you about 5 innings of 6ish ERA on average.  Bradish and Zimmerman could get better from working in the minors.  I wish the O's had the depth to send Bradish down, because he just looks lost out there. 

I believe there are mental aspects to this kind of thing.  I know that is often scoffed at.  But going out there and getting hammered every 5 days because you're not ready to do the job at least has the possibility imo to leave some residual damage.

[Just Regular]

I guess Jacob deGrom may not be opting out anymore.   I only like Harvey as a long con to get deGrom to take our phone call this offseason.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

I believe there are mental aspects to this kind of thing.  I know that is often scoffed at.  But going out there and getting hammered every 5 days because you're not ready to do the job at least has the possibility imo to leave some residual damage.

Eh, I dunno.   Bradish has 100 innings of AAA under his belt, so I’m not sure what more he has to learn there.   Of course we’ve seen guys like Tillman, Britton and Arrieta bounce up and down before finally getting their acts together.    Kremer may be in the process of getting his act together now (crosses fingers and says a prayer).   So, I could argue it either way.   

[George Zuverink]

Great topic! The math certainly certainly makes some of Elias’ seemingly incomprehensible FA signings make more sense.

[SteveA]

Just a comment on the numbers.  We are still well under .500 on the road.   Even if we do fantastic on the road the rest of the way and approach .500 on the road, we will still lose 40+ road games, probably 50+.   In most of those losses, the opponent won't have to bat in the 9th.  The exceptions would be extra inning road losses, and walkoff bottom of the 9th road losses (but in those latter cases we will only pitch 0, 1/3, or 2/3 of an inning at most).

So the # of innings we need to cover is 162*9 = 1458, minus 40+ road 9th innings, plus the number of extra innings we have to play.   So I think the 1450 number is pretty good as a rule of thumb.    The only way to get over 1450 would be to play an inordinately large number of extra inning games, or be a team that puts up a fantastic road record (50+ out of 81).

[Pickles]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Eh, I dunno.   Bradish has 100 innings of AAA under his belt, so I’m not sure what more he has to learn there.   Of course we’ve seen guys like Tillman, Britton and Arrieta bounce up and down before finally getting their acts together.    Kremer may be in the process of getting his act together now (crosses fingers and says a prayer).   So, I could argue it either way.   

Well, I think there are two ideas here.

Anyone can come up with a list of a million guys who have gone up and down a bit before finding success.  And anyone can come up with a list of ten million guys who have gone up and down and never found sustained success.

But I was making a different point.

I'm saying I think there is a level of diminishing returns for sending a young overmatched starter out there, and that eventually it can tip into the negative returns by damaging them to the point it makes them less likely to be able to recover and be one of the million guys who can find some success.  

For instance I believe you calculated Bradish for sixty inning for the rest of the season.  I have to say, if he's doing that at an 8 ERA then I think that is an experiment that doesn't warrant that many innings.

[wildcard]

I'm waiting on the O's to claim Drew Hutchison.

[wildcard]

Seems like Elias is trying to make Voth into a starter by stretching him out while he is in the rotation.  His last start he throe 41 pitches.   If he gets his next start  in this turn of the rotation I think he may  get the opportunity to throw 55 pitching.  The next after the 70.  Then 85 the next turn.

This will probably not happen in a straight line because a bad start may happen here and there. However this may be one of the ways that Elias trys to cover the innings needed for this season.