1500 Innings

[Pickles]

A poster, and I'm not sure who, has taken to mentioning the Orioles need to throw 1450 innings this year in several recent threads.  That's not quite true, as the actual number needed to get through 162 games is closer to 1500, with extra innings factored in, but it got me thinking about just how those innings are going to be covered.

So the team currently has thrown 600 innings, which leaves 900 innings left.  Let's break down what we can expect for the rest of the season.

Llyles currently has thrown 70 and could  be expected to throw another 100.

Wells has thrown 60, and I would expect him to be shut down at 140 or so, so there's another 80.

The top six bullpen guys- Lopez, Bautista, Tate, Baker, Perez, Akin- probably have 260 innings left in them.

There's still 460 innings left.  Where are they going to come from?

Does Zimmerman come back up?  How long does the Bradish experiment continue?  How much will Baumann, Kremer, and Krehbiel contribute?

Will anybody from the minors come up and contribute?

I know we all- well most of us- have been quite happy with the improvements the team has shown this year and their increased competitiveness on a nightly basis, which has largely been the product of much better run prevention this year.  But almost 450 innings need to be thrown by some less than ideal options going forward, and I think it's likely we see a real slippage in competitiveness going forward.  I mean, nobody wants to see Bradish get 20 more starts pitching at a 7 ERA.  But what other options are there?

[InsideCoroner]

Matt Harvey should be available again as of July, shouldn’t he?

We need to sign an ambidextrous pitcher. Then they can pitch twice every five games. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Looks like Kremer is going to get starts going forward.  Hopefully they look like his 2 most recent starts.  Zimmerman will probably be back at some point, regardless of how bad he is pitching.  Bauman, Watkins, Voth and even Lowther (shudders) will probably get some starts.  Anyone with an arm attached that can throw 3 or more innings will probably get a start.  Harvey will probably get starts as soon as he is stretched out.

 

 

[Just Regular]

I'm the 1450 sayer...meant merely as a code for how my brain rounds 162*9.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2021.shtml

Last year AL teams averaged 1423.   Its just a code number for Beane Moneyball, war of attrition & what's attrited pitcher's arms, etc.

The hedge fund analysts have gotten good at attrition avoidance with maybe 1000 pitchers a year sharing the load.

[jdwilde1]

40 minutes ago, Pickles said:

A poster, and I'm not sure who, has taken to mentioning the Orioles need to throw 1450 innings this year in several recent threads.  That's not quite true, as the actual number needed to get through 162 games is closer to 1500, with extra innings factored in, but it got me thinking about just how those innings are going to be covered.

Good post regarding how the remaining innings may be covered.  With that said, I am not sure what you’re basing the 1500 innings on, but the O’s are more likely to throw under 1450 than above 1450.  First, if every game was 9 innings pitched, you would have 1,458 innings total.  However, many games require less or more than 9 innings.  As you point out, extra innings are a possibility, and historically occur in about 9% of games.  In addition, losing on the road in regulation will result in less than 9 innings pitched (usually 8 innings).  Also, there is the possibility of having a shortened official game (e.g. game called after 5 innings do to rain).  
 

Currently, the O’s are on pace to throw 1,437.1 innings with 35 out of 68 games on the road.  Moreover, Baseball Reference shows that between 2010-2019 the O’s only pitched more than 1450 innings three times and only approached 1,500 in 2012 (1,481 innings with 18 extra innings games and 46 road wins).  In comparison, they pitched in the 1430s four times and in the 1,440s three times.  With the current extra innings rules, it’s even less likely that a team approaches 1,500 innings. My guess is that the O’s will finish with about 1,440 innings if they play 162, so another 835-840 innings.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

While there are extra innings, there are games when we won't pitch the 9th. If we are on the road and the other team is leading in the ninth.

[Aristotelian]

27 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Looks like Kremer is going to get starts going forward.  Hopefully they look like his 2 most recent starts.  Zimmerman will probably be back at some point, regardless of how bad he is pitching.  Bauman, Watkins, Voth and even Lowther (shudders) will probably get some starts.  Anyone with an arm attached that can throw 3 or more innings will probably get a start.  Harvey will probably get starts as soon as he is stretched out.

 

 

Also add DL Hall, Valimont, and possibly Grayson in the mix. Maybe Kevin Smith. There's also Door Number Three (waiver wire guys we don't know about). I am hopeful we avoid Harvey.

[Frobby]

Others have already addressed the fact that we likely only need to cover maybe 1425 innings or so, not 1500.   So maybe 822 to go?

So far about 52% of our innings have come from starters, 48% from the pen.  So we need 427 from starters, 395 from the pen.

Starters: Lyles 95, Wells 80, Bradish 60, Kremer 70, Watkins 50, Harvey 60, Others 12.   

Bullpen: Lopez 40, Akin 45, Tate 40, Bautista 40, Perez 30, Krehbiel 30, Vespi   30, Baker 20, Baumann 25, Gillaspie 20, Diplan 20, Reyes 20, Sulser 15, Voth 20.

 

 

 

 

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Others have already addressed the fact that we likely only need to cover maybe 1425 innings or so, not 1500.   So maybe 822 to go?

So far about 52% of our innings have come from starters, 48% from the pen.  So we need 427 from starters, 395 from the pen.

Starters: Lyles 95, Wells 80, Bradish 60, Kremer 70, Watkins 50, Harvey 60, Others 12.   

Bullpen: Lopez 40, Akin 45, Tate 40, Bautista 40, Perez 30, Krehbiel 30, Vespi   30, Baker 20, Baumann 25, Gillaspie 20, Diplan 20, Reyes 20, Sulser 15, Voth 20.

 

 

 

 

Give Harvey's innings to a combination of Hall, Valimont, and Zimmermann. Harvey is Plan C but we can get through the season without him with a bit of luck. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Give Harvey's innings to a combination of Hall, Valimont, and Zimmermann. Harvey is Plan C but we can get through the season without him with a bit of luck. 

I think Harvey is going to get called up even though it's not going to be a popular move. Elias didn't need to sign Harvey and he could have released him given the suspension, but he's still with the organization.  

Harvey seems to be part of Elias plan to get through the season even though there are other less controversial options out there. 

[Just Regular]

Next year I hope to win 20-some more road games than we have the last several seasons, and that'd be a lot more Bottom of 9ths to complete than the 2018-2022 teams have had.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Give Harvey's innings to a combination of Hall, Valimont, and Zimmermann. Harvey is Plan C but we can get through the season without him with a bit of luck. 

I don’t really want to see more of Harvey, but I fully expect we will.  

[Pickles]

Good catch all on the innings total.  I didn't figure the loss of IP from road losses.

Still, we're looking at ~400 innings needed that will be doled out to guys who probably shouldn't be pitching in the MLs.

I know many were very critical of the Harvey signing.  Well, I think this exercise shows how Harvey may well be needed this year, and I fully expect to see him this summer.

When the options are Harvey, or keep sending Bradish or Zimmermann out there to embarrass themselves, the need for his presence becomes a little clearer.

[OriolesMagic83]

19 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think Harvey is going to get called up even though it's not going to be a popular move. Elias didn't need to sign Harvey and he could have released him given the suspension, but he's still with the organization.  

Harvey seems to be part of Elias plan to get through the season even though there are other less controversial options out there. 

Elias already took the PR hit by signing him.  No chance he doesn't pitch for the O's if healthy.  He can't start pitching in the minors until the suspension is up? 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Good catch all on the innings total.  I didn't figure the loss of IP from road losses.

Still, we're looking at ~400 innings needed that will be doled out to guys who probably shouldn't be pitching in the MLs.

I know many were very critical of the Harvey signing.  Well, I think this exercise shows how Harvey may well be needed this year, and I fully expect to see him this summer.

When the options are Harvey, or keep sending Bradish or Zimmermann out there to embarrass themselves, the need for his presence becomes a little clearer.

Harvey is basically the pitcher he is.  He's going to give you about 5 innings of 6ish ERA on average.  Bradish and Zimmerman could get better from working in the minors.  I wish the O's had the depth to send Bradish down, because he just looks lost out there.