Soto & Ohtani Might Be Available, interested?

[backwardsk]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I will be bummed if the Yankees get Soto, but the year they are having, the long drought by their standards, the annual 40-man crush needing its Gallo purge, the redundancy of Volpe-Peraza, the scrubs at the 3rd outfield spot they won't want to play in October....a lot of it doesn't look good.     Aaron Judge diplomacy maybe working against, and Soto maybe saving them for a desired Judge over-commit would be another bitter bit if it happened.

Hopeful LAD dives in on a unique property.    If anyone would take on the Strasburg $$$, maybe its NYM.    Even if Soto is +$200mm, Strasburg-Corbin nearly balance that out.

Rosenthal, who is acting as the Lerners mouthpiece, basically said that adding Strasburg/Corbin while diluting the return for Soto ain’t happening.

Lerners want to get this done before they sell.  Soto can take his time.  Hence the leaks of the trade rumors.  All in all, I don’t think they get an extension done by the deadline and the trade doesn’t happen either.

 

[Hallas]

8 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Ruth only had two years as a two-way player, 1918 and 1919.  And by '19 he was not an All Star pitcher.  133 innings, 15 starts, 58 walks, 30 strikeouts.  Even in '18 he was 13-7 in 19 starts with more walks than Ks. 

The last pitcher to really play like Ohtani in the majors was probably Blonde Guy Hecker. In 1886 he made 48 starts on the mound (136 game schedule), went 26-23 with a 2.87 ERA, played 39 games between the OF and 1B, and won the batting title hitting .341.  But this was almost 140 years ago in a league that was probably the equivalent of a mid-tier college league today.

How would you arrive at a fair market value contract for him?  His batting WAR was ~2.5 his first to years, but in part-time usage. Last season when he was fulltime DHing he was at 5, and this year he's on pace for around 3.5.  You have to assume full-time usage is going to be his mode of operation going forward.  He's younger and more athletic than most DH's (since most DH's don't have a fielding position due to lack of ability; he doesn't have a fielding position due to his value as a pitcher.)  Based on past deals, that would put his fair market value as a DH to be around 15-25m a year.  But then he's also a 4-6 win player as a pitcher, and the fair market value for that is another 30m a year for a longer term deal.  On one hand he's probably worth m ore than the sum of his parts, but on the other hand it's really difficult to just add them up because they typically have different contract lengths, and because a 55m/year contract is uncharted territory.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Hallas said:

How would you arrive at a fair market value contract for him?  His batting WAR was ~2.5 his first to years, but in part-time usage. Last season when he was fulltime DHing he was at 5, and this year he's on pace for around 3.5.  You have to assume full-time usage is going to be his mode of operation going forward.  He's younger and more athletic than most DH's (since most DH's don't have a fielding position due to lack of ability; he doesn't have a fielding position due to his value as a pitcher.)  Based on past deals, that would put his fair market value as a DH to be around 15-25m a year.  But then he's also a 4-6 win player as a pitcher, and the fair market value for that is another 30m a year for a longer term deal.  On one hand he's probably worth m ore than the sum of his parts, but on the other hand it's really difficult to just add them up because they typically have different contract lengths, and because a 55m/year contract is uncharted territory.

Love to have Othani….but I think the cost would be 3-4 of our best prospects and a $400 + million contract as you can’t trade those assets and only have him through 2023.

I can’t see anyway John Angelos approves a contract like that and why you’d give up the goods for 1+ year of play

[DrungoHazewood]

7 hours ago, Hallas said:

How would you arrive at a fair market value contract for him?  His batting WAR was ~2.5 his first to years, but in part-time usage. Last season when he was fulltime DHing he was at 5, and this year he's on pace for around 3.5.  You have to assume full-time usage is going to be his mode of operation going forward.  He's younger and more athletic than most DH's (since most DH's don't have a fielding position due to lack of ability; he doesn't have a fielding position due to his value as a pitcher.)  Based on past deals, that would put his fair market value as a DH to be around 15-25m a year.  But then he's also a 4-6 win player as a pitcher, and the fair market value for that is another 30m a year for a longer term deal.  On one hand he's probably worth m ore than the sum of his parts, but on the other hand it's really difficult to just add them up because they typically have different contract lengths, and because a 55m/year contract is uncharted territory.

I think you have to treat him as a 6+ win player, just with some unique risk because of his skills.  Somewhat mitigated by the fact that even if he is injured in a way that precludes him from pitching he can still hit.

He's in that category that you can't expect to get huge value back in a trade and he probably won't get paid $50-60M a year.  Both history and logic tell us that no big star gets a long-term deal that's just $9M x WAR x years because of risk.  Age and injuries mean you have to discount the value. The shorter the deal the less that comes into play.  Look at Manny.  He was very young for a free agent and he's only being paid for about three wins a year despite averaging almost twice that so far in his career (per 162 games).

Anyway, I think Ohtani's weird contractual situation is that he's arb eligible for next season, so this year is $5M, next will probably be close to $20M, then he's a free agent at 29.  So there's some surplus value there, but it's probably like 5 wins for 1.4 years.  What would you trade for five wins?  Then in 2024 he probably signs a 8/240 deal or something like that. With the Dodgers or Yanks.

[Sports Guy]

Do you acquire Soto and not worry about an extension and just try to win a title with him sometime in the next 3 (realistically 2) seasons?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you acquire Soto and not worry about an extension and just try to win a title with him sometime in the next 3 (realistically 2) seasons?

That's the move to make but the price is going to be too high.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's the move to make but the price is going to be too high.

Well I don’t think it happens because of the MASN situation.

But you wonder how many teams are willing to make the move without an extension in place and maybe he’s not willing to sign one now.  If that’s the case, he may not fetch as much as he should.

I don’t think the Mets would care and that’s perhaps why they are the most likely to get him. 

 

[tntoriole]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I don’t think it happens because of the MASN situation.

But you wonder how many teams are willing to make the move without an extension in place and maybe he’s not willing to sign one now.  If that’s the case, he may not fetch as much as he should.

I don’t think the Mets would care and that’s perhaps why they are the most likely to get him. 

 

“Maybe he is not willing?”  Who is his agent again?  Oh yes, that Boras guy.  Pretty unlikely to be a negotiated extension trade.  

[GoldGlove21]

On 7/16/2022 at 3:38 PM, ArtVanDelay said:

Soto is one of the best hitters of all time and is 23 years old.  If you have the opportunity to get him in a trade then you do it.  The Miguel Cabrera trade worked out pretty well for Detroit. 

What would you give up to get Soto? Would the Nationals want the PR nightmare of dealing him to the O's? How much does he want as he turned down 30 mil a year over 15 years. I would love Soto as an Oriole, but I do not see us giving up the package the Nats would want for him and then handing him upwards of $500M.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

What would you give up to get Soto? Would the Nationals want the PR nightmare of dealing him to the O's? How much does he want as he turned down 30 mil a year over 15 years. I would love Soto as an Oriole, but I do not see us giving up the package the Nats would want for him and then handing him upwards of $500M.

No idea what I would give up but it would be a lot.  I would try to keep GRod, Adley and Gunnar..everyone else is on the table. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No idea what I would give up but it would be a lot.  I would try to keep GRod, Adley and Gunnar..everyone else is on the table. 

My guess is you get to keep one of the three.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My guess is you get to keep one of the three.

I don’t see any team giving up 2 top 5 overall prospects and more.  

[jamalshw]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

My guess is you get to keep one of the three.

You may be able to keep 2, but no way you keep all three. Something like Henderson, Hall and Stowers/Cowser may get you close with a couple other lesser prospects thrown in. I do not advocate doing it, however, because the contract to extend him would cripple the team given the amount and the unlikely scenario the Orioles will spend enough on the rest of the team to build around him, leaving us with a Trout/Angels situation. I also don't know that 2+ years is enough to part with that level of talent. 

[Tryptamine]

You guys are severely underestimating the package it would take for Soto. Remember that in the Miguel Cabrera trade the Tigers traded both Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. Andrew Miller was the #7 prospect in baseball and Cameron Maybin was the #8. Badenhop was kind of a nothing and Rabelo/De La Cruz were just middling prospects. Even ignoring the the last 3, that was two top 10 prospects in the game. Also, as of now, Soto has been the better player. He currently sports a 152 wRC+ which is 9th in baseball. He's doing that with a .244 babip which is nearly .100 points below his usual babip.  You would honestly be talking about something like Grayson+Gunnar and then another good, not great prospect.

[GoldGlove21]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see any team giving up 2 top 5 overall prospects and more.  

Right and if there is no contract in place upon executing the trade then he is a rental. The Orioles are in a position where they just graduated a top 5 prospect into the majors and still have two more in the minors. I think Soto wants to be a Yankee.