Dustin Ackley CF/1B at #5

[Stotle]

Is Davidson kind of like Vitters?

Vitters was the better hitting prospect. Davidson still has six months before the draft, but it would be hard to put him in the same class. I'd estimate him at a notch below Vitters across the board. I think his power potential rivals Vitters's.

[DennisTheOsFan]

Has Ackley played the INF before?

How does he compare to Buster Posey as a hitter? When I read about Ackley, he reminds me of Posey, with maybe more athleticism?

[rhall]

I think it's a matter of keeping his arm healthy -- apparently it may not hold up with constant throws from the OF. And OFs throwing motion is different from an IFs, and requires more shoulder. IFs can thow from the ear.

Here you allude to the fact that you're concerned with the long term health of Ackley's arm. You mention here, and IIRC other places as well, that he may be destined to stay in the infield so that he can throw more from the ear and protect his shoulder.

My question is why does that matter in regards to Ackley? He doesn't have shoulder issues. He had Tommy John surgery. Personally, I don't see why he'd have any problem transitioning back to the outfield. He's a plus athlete with plus speed, his shoulder is fine and TJ surgery has a very strong track record of success among pitchers, so I wouldn't worry too badly about a position player's chances.

Even if he has to stay in an outfield corner I still like Ackley at #5. Right now, if I were Joe Jordan, I'd be targeting Ackley and Matzek for our first pick.

[Stotle]

Here you allude to the fact that you're concerned with the long term health of Ackley's arm. You mention here, and IIRC other places as well, that he may be destined to stay in the infield so that he can throw more from the ear and protect his shoulder.

My question is why does that matter in regards to Ackley? He doesn't have shoulder issues. He had Tommy John surgery. Personally, I don't see why he'd have any problem transitioning back to the outfield. He's a plus athlete with plus speed, his shoulder is fine and TJ surgery has a very strong track record of success among pitchers, so I wouldn't worry too badly about a position player's chances.

Even if he has to stay in an outfield corner I still like Ackley at #5. Right now, if I were Joe Jordan, I'd be targeting Ackley and Matzek for our first pick.

My understanding was that he did some damage to the shoulder partly because of his elbow issues -- perhaps I'm confusing it. Regardless of whether the long-term issue is shoulder or elbow, the fact that the plus-athlete is playing first base should be some cause for concern. As I've said, if he's in the OF than his value rises for me. CF, definitely top 2-4 picks. LF, probably still top 5. 1B, 8-10.

[rhall]

My understanding was that he did some damage to the shoulder partly because of his elbow issues -- perhaps I'm confusing it. Regardless of whether the long-term issue is shoulder or elbow, the fact that the plus-athlete is playing first base should be some cause for concern. As I've said, if he's in the OF than his value rises for me. CF, definitely top 2-4 picks. LF, probably still top 5. 1B, 8-10.

Fair enough. I wonder if we can scrounge up any injury info on him that doesn't just say "he had TJ surgery".

[Stotle]

Fair enough. I wonder if we can scrounge up any injury info on him that doesn't just say "he had TJ surgery".

Honestly, I have in my draft notes "TJ / shoulder" but not where I got it from. Could have been a mis-mention on a televised game or something I read in a draft chat. My notes are generally much more detailed, so this surprises me a bit. I honestly haven't revised /edited my database since October (working on MiL prospects the last couple of months).

[Big Ben]

DUSTIN ACKLEY'S CAREER STATSYear       Avg  GP-GS    AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   TB  SLG%  BB HBP  SO GDP   OB%  SF  SH  SB-ATT   PO   A   E  FLD%2007 UNC  .402  73-73   296   70  119  20   3  10   74  175  .591  30   1  21   2  .448   8   1  11-14   538  37   6  .9902008 UNC  .417  68-68   278   82  116  21   4   7   51  166  .597  53   1  27   1  .503   6   1  19-25   488  22   1  .9982008 CCBL .415  12-12    41   11   17   4   1   2   10   29  .707  16   1  10   0  .586   0   0   2-2      -   -   0  .--- (OF: 7 games)TOTAL...  .410 153-153  615  162  252  45   8  19  135  370  .602  99   3  58   3  .484  14   2  32-41  1026  59   7  .994

GRANT GREEN'S CAREER STATSYear       Avg  GP-GS    AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   TB  SLG%  BB HBP  SO GDP   OB%  SF  SH  SB-ATT   PO   A   E  FLD% 2007 USC  .316  56-56   228   42   72  14  10   2   24  112  .491  25   3  51  13  .388   2   6   6-10   108 151   9  .9662008 USC  .390  50-50   205   46   80  15   5   9   46  132  .644  15   4  35   4  .438   2   2  10-14    73 121   9  .9562008 CCBL .348  41-41   161   37   56  12   1   6   21   88  .547  28   3  38   2  .451   1   0  10-13     -   -   17 .--- (SS: 35 games)TOTAL...  .350 147-147  594  125  208  41  16  17   91  332  .559  68  10 124  19  .422   5   8  26-37   181 272   18 .962

I have to admit I'm a little puzzled by how much everyone would pounce on Grant Green if given the opportunity, but Ackley is all but dismissed at 1:5. Green obviously has the positional advantage, and I've seen nothing to indicate he won't remain at SS going forward. Point to Green. However, I feel that Ackley is the best pure hitter in the draft (at least at the college level), and there's a few "tells" in their statistics that seem to bear that out.

Caveat: I'm neither a scout, nor a sabermetrician. I'm an all-around general baseball nut who considers myself fairly knowledgable on both sides of the coin, but not to the point of overzealous dogma I'm very fond of amateur and college baseball, and I love draft time. I leapt for joy when Lincecum fell to us in 2006 - he was easily the most "electric" pitcher I saw that year -- and cursed when we took Billy Rowell instead. But eventually I came around - it was easy to love that sweet Barry Bonds swing. The Barry Bonds ego...well...

I haven't seen Grant play in person, while I've seen Ackley a few times and come away impressed. I've seen a bit of each on video, though not as much as I hope to this coming season. Both will be 21 by Draft Day, both play in strong conferences (I tend to think the ACC has a slight edge over the Pac-10 overall, but that's probably just local bias), both have similar strong, lean frames. They could sell some jeans Green stands a few inches taller and I think he has a little more potential to fill out as he adds strength, but there's not a *ton* of physical projection left with either of them. Green seems a bit "quicker", but I think Ackley uses his speed better and runs a little better "underway". Neither really projects to carry much speed forward as a weapon. The big question is whether Ackley has enough speed and athleticism to stick in center or perhaps shift to second base. That I don't know and won't hazard a guess at this point, but I imagine that's where most of the hedging on Ackley comes from.

Looking at the stats, the big thing that jumps out at me is that Ackley demonstrates much greater control of the strike zone. 99 BB / 58 K over 615 ABs is very promising to me and indicates a hitter that will handle the minors, particularly the upper minors, with aplomb. Green's 68 BB / 124 K over 594 AB is disquieting by comparison - I feel Green is one of those guys who will sail through the low minors before hitting a wall and having his weaknesses exposed in Double A. For all I've heard of Green's power potential and Ackley's lack thereof, I was surprised to find Ackley's 2B, HR, and SLG% substantially higher than Green's vs. comparable competition, to go along with the obvious advantage in AVG and OBP. I did note that Ackley played in the OF during his brief stint in the Cape Cod League, though I don't know if it was in LF, CF, or RF. Green played almost exclusively at SS, and while I don't lend *too much* credence to this particular stat, no amount of "incompetent scoring" or "bad field conditions" can make 17 errors in 35 games easy to explain away.

So Stotle, Greg, and the other great draft-oriented minds here: What am I missing? Does Ackley have a loopy, "aluminum bat" swing that I'm not seeing? Did his arm fall off? Because, frankly, with my limited knowledge of the two and with the information currently at hand, I would snatch up Ackley over Green without a second thought, whether he's playing CF, 2B, LF, and maybe (probably) even 1B. Enlighten me, because I seem to be in the very small minority

And, for a totally unrelated aside with doesn't really warrant a new thread: I was thrilled that we inked Bobby Bundy, but I understand his little brother Dylan is considered one of the top prospects in the 2011 class (non-Harper division). Does anyone have any information on him to assuage my curiosity?

[crawdad]

I think Ackley's worth is very much dependent on his arm. We'll know more when June comes around. I think his bat is superior to Green's. If Ackley can play center or maybe second . . . I think he is a better prospect than Green. Green's K rate is something to be concerned about, but his error rate is not something that would bother me much. I think Green can stay at short and that has a lot of value. It makes him more valuable than Ackley, if Ackley is stuck at first. As a first baseman, your bat has to develop. There is just more room for failure for a 1B.

With regard to competition between conferences. A SOS analysis puts ACC, SEC, Pac10, and Big 12 as the stand out conferences hands down. It is basically ACC then SEC/Pac10 then Big 12. The step off then is the Big East and Big West . . . and that is a large, large drop in terms of competition. So, all of that said, those top 4 are largely comparable. I'd probably only make adjustments on numbers based on home field factors as some of those teams play far more than 50% of their games at home.

[allstar1579]

It's one of the harder problems when looking at prospects, projecting the position, which is extremely important. Like Crawdad said, Ackley's arm has taken some real abuse, while his bat is advanced for CF or 2B, it's not so much for 1B, hence why a guy like Dykstra from Wake Forest goes late in the first, you have to be that much better with the bat if you play at 1B, because you can switch anyone over to 1B, you can't always move a 1B somewhere else.

Ackley is a rare case in the sense that he is there to keep his bat in the lineup because he can't play out in the field right now. Give him a chance to play this season and see what he does because one of two things need to happen, he needs to change his game offensively, or needs to prove he can play other positions. If you were going to draft an athlete like LJ Hoes you wouldn't take him in the 2nd round if you were planning on sticking him at 1B would you? Same kinda deal, where Ackley's athleticism is wasted at 1B, but is a major draft plus at the right position. Again, the same conversation had about Posey last year, if he stays at C he is more valuable than if he moves to 1B, not that he slips that far at 1B, just not top 5. IMO.

[Stotle]

DUSTIN ACKLEY'S CAREER STATSYear       Avg  GP-GS    AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   TB  SLG%  BB HBP  SO GDP   OB%  SF  SH  SB-ATT   PO   A   E  FLD%2007 UNC  .402  73-73   296   70  119  20   3  10   74  175  .591  30   1  21   2  .448   8   1  11-14   538  37   6  .9902008 UNC  .417  68-68   278   82  116  21   4   7   51  166  .597  53   1  27   1  .503   6   1  19-25   488  22   1  .9982008 CCBL .415  12-12    41   11   17   4   1   2   10   29  .707  16   1  10   0  .586   0   0   2-2      -   -   0  .--- (OF: 7 games)TOTAL...  .410 153-153  615  162  252  45   8  19  135  370  .602  99   3  58   3  .484  14   2  32-41  1026  59   7  .994

GRANT GREEN'S CAREER STATSYear       Avg  GP-GS    AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   TB  SLG%  BB HBP  SO GDP   OB%  SF  SH  SB-ATT   PO   A   E  FLD% 2007 USC  .316  56-56   228   42   72  14  10   2   24  112  .491  25   3  51  13  .388   2   6   6-10   108 151   9  .9662008 USC  .390  50-50   205   46   80  15   5   9   46  132  .644  15   4  35   4  .438   2   2  10-14    73 121   9  .9562008 CCBL .348  41-41   161   37   56  12   1   6   21   88  .547  28   3  38   2  .451   1   0  10-13     -   -   17 .--- (SS: 35 games)TOTAL...  .350 147-147  594  125  208  41  16  17   91  332  .559  68  10 124  19  .422   5   8  26-37   181 272   18 .962

I have to admit I'm a little puzzled by how much everyone would pounce on Grant Green if given the opportunity, but Ackley is all but dismissed at 1:5. Green obviously has the positional advantage, and I've seen nothing to indicate he won't remain at SS going forward. Point to Green. However, I feel that Ackley is the best pure hitter in the draft (at least at the college level), and there's a few "tells" in their statistics that seem to bear that out.

Caveat: I'm neither a scout, nor a sabermetrician. I'm an all-around general baseball nut who considers myself fairly knowledgable on both sides of the coin, but not to the point of overzealous dogma I'm very fond of amateur and college baseball, and I love draft time. I leapt for joy when Lincecum fell to us in 2006 - he was easily the most "electric" pitcher I saw that year -- and cursed when we took Billy Rowell instead. But eventually I came around - it was easy to love that sweet Barry Bonds swing. The Barry Bonds ego...well...

I haven't seen Grant play in person, while I've seen Ackley a few times and come away impressed. I've seen a bit of each on video, though not as much as I hope to this coming season. Both will be 21 by Draft Day, both play in strong conferences (I tend to think the ACC has a slight edge over the Pac-10 overall, but that's probably just local bias), both have similar strong, lean frames. They could sell some jeans Green stands a few inches taller and I think he has a little more potential to fill out as he adds strength, but there's not a *ton* of physical projection left with either of them. Green seems a bit "quicker", but I think Ackley uses his speed better and runs a little better "underway". Neither really projects to carry much speed forward as a weapon. The big question is whether Ackley has enough speed and athleticism to stick in center or perhaps shift to second base. That I don't know and won't hazard a guess at this point, but I imagine that's where most of the hedging on Ackley comes from.

Looking at the stats, the big thing that jumps out at me is that Ackley demonstrates much greater control of the strike zone. 99 BB / 58 K over 615 ABs is very promising to me and indicates a hitter that will handle the minors, particularly the upper minors, with aplomb. Green's 68 BB / 124 K over 594 AB is disquieting by comparison - I feel Green is one of those guys who will sail through the low minors before hitting a wall and having his weaknesses exposed in Double A. For all I've heard of Green's power potential and Ackley's lack thereof, I was surprised to find Ackley's 2B, HR, and SLG% substantially higher than Green's vs. comparable competition, to go along with the obvious advantage in AVG and OBP. I did note that Ackley played in the OF during his brief stint in the Cape Cod League, though I don't know if it was in LF, CF, or RF. Green played almost exclusively at SS, and while I don't lend *too much* credence to this particular stat, no amount of "incompetent scoring" or "bad field conditions" can make 17 errors in 35 games easy to explain away.

So Stotle, Greg, and the other great draft-oriented minds here: What am I missing? Does Ackley have a loopy, "aluminum bat" swing that I'm not seeing? Did his arm fall off? Because, frankly, with my limited knowledge of the two and with the information currently at hand, I would snatch up Ackley over Green without a second thought, whether he's playing CF, 2B, LF, and maybe (probably) even 1B. Enlighten me, because I seem to be in the very small minority

And, for a totally unrelated aside with doesn't really warrant a new thread: I was thrilled that we inked Bobby Bundy, but I understand his little brother Dylan is considered one of the top prospects in the 2011 class (non-Harper division). Does anyone have any information on him to assuage my curiosity?

Short on time today, but for me it comes down to positional versatility. If Green struggles at SS, he could be shifted to any other position on the field save for CF/C. His approach could be sculpted to more power, but he should be fine with a line-drive approach since he gets some backspin. He isn't an elite bat. He's very good and well above-average for SS, but he's not Evan Longoria. He could be 65/60 hitting/power, which is very good for SS, but would also play at most other positions. If he struggles defensively, his bat plays elsewhere. If he stumbles offensively, his defensive value up-the-middle gives potential ML-value as well.

Ackley projects a 70-hitter. No question that plays. The problem is, if he stumbles at all (and is limited to 1B) the only thing he can be is a slightly above-average hitter for average, below-average power for his position, and he doesn't add much value from a defensive standpoint (the extent to which his defense can impact a game is limited at 1B).

When it comes to the draft, I think you have to consider the full spectrum -- ceiling, floor, projection. As of right now, if Ackley is limited to 1B, his value is almost exclusively tied to his bat. While it's the best tool between him a Green, Green is a slightly safer bet to provide ML-value because he plays a premium position and has above-average offensive tools. There are more avenues for him to take in order to reach the Bigs for the various reasons listed above.

Rambling, but hope that clarifies my position a bit.

[Big Ben]

The point could be argued that Longoria had exceeded expectations thus far in his young career. Longoria was regarded as the consensus best college hitter of a (perceived) very weak hitting crop in 2006. If Green's bat is a notch below Longoria and even Tulowitzki, the two players he's most frequently compared to (and I agree with that assessment), why is he in the conversation as high as #2 overall?

As I suspected, the possibility of Ackley being limited to 1B defensively and the uncertainty regarding his arm strength and recovery seems to be driving him far down the board. I love that bat and skillset at the plate, though, and it's hard for me to look past that

If Ackley can stick in CF this season, do you take him over Green? How about as a corner OF? Disregarding his arm entirely, do you feel that Ackley has the other skills necessary to be an average-or-better defensive CF at the MLB level?

[allstar1579]

The point could be argued that Longoria had exceeded expectations thus far in his young career. Longoria was regarded as the consensus best college hitter of a (perceived) very weak hitting crop in 2006. If Green's bat is a notch below Longoria and even Tulowitzki, the two players he's most frequently compared to (and I agree with that assessment), why is he in the conversation as high as #2 overall?

As I suspected, the possibility of Ackley being limited to 1B defensively and the uncertainty regarding his arm strength and recovery seems to be driving him far down the board. I love that bat and skillset at the plate, though, and it's hard for me to look past that

If Ackley can stick in CF this season, do you take him over Green? How about as a corner OF? Disregarding his arm entirely, do you feel that Ackley has the other skills necessary to be an average-or-better defensive CF at the MLB level?

He's plenty athletic enough to play anywhere in the OF, but if his arm is too weak, or still hurting, he doesn't do anyone any good by playing out there. His bat plays, pure and simple, but I don't know what people think Ackley's power will turn out to be, he rates about a 70 hitting, but power is a bit less than that. I think he is in the mold of another Markakis without the arm.

Green gets compared to guys like Longo and Tulo because he plays a premium position with a good bat. Guys like that almost always get overdrafted, but it is a good bet that they will work out fairly well since even if they only meet half of that potential, it is still above average for that position. Would you be happy with Green if he hit .290 with 17 HR? If Ackley hit the same at 1B would you be as happy? The big difference with a lot of these SS guys is most of them can not stay at SS long term, but Green looks like he may be able to.

[wickedwitch]

The point could be argued that Longoria had exceeded expectations thus far in his young career. Longoria was regarded as the consensus best college hitter of a (perceived) very weak hitting crop in 2006. If Green's bat is a notch below Longoria and even Tulowitzki, the two players he's most frequently compared to (and I agree with that assessment), why is he in the conversation as high as #2 overall?

It's a result of who the other potential draftees are. There's no position player that's clearly better and only one pitcher. And while I agree that his bat is a notch below Longoria's, it is very comparable to Tulowitzki's, if not better.

[Stotle]

It's a result of who the other potential draftees are. There's no position player that's clearly better and only one pitcher. And while I agree that his bat is a notch below Longoria's, it is very comparable to Tulowitzki's, if not better.

I'd say he's a better bat than Tulo (definitely more power) and a markedly inferior defender. He moves well enough to stay at SS long term, though. Longoria did/does not. Longoria probably has better hands and a better arm than Green.

[Stotle]

The point could be argued that Longoria had exceeded expectations thus far in his young career. Longoria was regarded as the consensus best college hitter of a (perceived) very weak hitting crop in 2006. If Green's bat is a notch below Longoria and even Tulowitzki, the two players he's most frequently compared to (and I agree with that assessment), why is he in the conversation as high as #2 overall?

As I suspected, the possibility of Ackley being limited to 1B defensively and the uncertainty regarding his arm strength and recovery seems to be driving him far down the board. I love that bat and skillset at the plate, though, and it's hard for me to look past that

If Ackley can stick in CF this season, do you take him over Green? How about as a corner OF? Disregarding his arm entirely, do you feel that Ackley has the other skills necessary to be an average-or-better defensive CF at the MLB level?

His bat is above Tulo's and slightly below Longoria's. Unlike Longoria, he projects to stay at SS. He grades out above-AVG across the board and is at a premium position. I don't think #2 is that crazy, though I'd put him at three behind Strasburg and White.

Ackley's potential goes 70/55 for me (hit/power) whereas Green is 65/60. Green plays the more premium position, so even if he's 60/60 I still take him over Ackley. Ackley in CF goes #4 for me. His defense is true game-changing in the OF, so he has less value in LF for me without the power (though it's slight). I'd probably still take him #4 in LF. He doesn't have the arm for RF.