The new dog verses the old dog

[RZNJ]

They say you can't teach an old dog new tricks.   Think of the hitters who did not come up through the Elias minor league system or were not drafted by Elias as the old dog.   They are generally not patient hitters and have a pull heavy approach.   The most extreme examples are Hays, Mateo, Mountcastle, and Odor.    Less extreme are Santander and Mullins.

The new dogs?    Rutschman, Vavra, Stowers, Henderson.

Stowers and Henderson are a bit more agressive than Rutschman and Vavra and Stowers looks to be the least patient of the three and the most succeptible for going outside the zone.   However, all four have shown, so far, to have a strong willingness to go the other way.   The willingness to go the other way goes hand in hand with not swinging at pitches out of the zone.   Stowers had had a bunch of hits to the left of center field, including his homer runs.   How many doubles to LF has Rutschman had as a LH hitter?   Henderson has used LF quite a bit and Vavra was hitting almost exclusively to LF when he first came up.   He was starting to pull the ball more before he got hurt because you can't just do one thing.   You have to be able to hit the ball everywhere to be a really good hitter.

I've been watching highlights of Norfolk and some of the games.   Our top 4 guys down there, Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and Norby are all good at going opposite field and all do so with power.   Ortiz, Norby, and Cowser almost seem to favor going the opposite way whereas Westburg seems like he likes to pull more than the others.    All four of these players look like well rounded hitters.    While Henderson and Rutschmann look like studs and Vavra and Stowers have yet to really make a mark, just watching these hitters is a pleasure and gives me a ton of hope that things are headed in the right direction.

Maybe some of the old dogs can even learn new tricks.   Mateo had that 50 game stretch where he looked like a professional hitter.  Mountcastle has been waiting longer (3 walks last night?) and going more to RF more.   Who knows?

 

[Frobby]

Some of your premises about who hits oppo or not aren’t correct.  Adley’s heavily pull, Mountcastle hits oppo a lot. Mateo pulls very little.  https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=50&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=2&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=15,d

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Some of your premises about who hits oppo or not aren’t correct.  Adley’s heavily pull, Mountcastle hits oppo a lot. Mateo pulls very little.  https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=50&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=2&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=15,d

Mateo pulls very little?   Wow!   I must be watching some other team's games on TV.  

The spray chart shows that he has 3 doubles down the RF line and 2 homers just to the right of centerfield.  So, I'd say the chart shows that he doesn't hit the ball well to RF.   The chart shows not even ONE double or triple to the RCF gap.  No balls off of the scoreboard in RF which isn't a long shot.   So, what this chart shows me is that when he does hit the ball to RF it's a jam shot or off the end of the bat.   He doesn't drive the ball to RF at all.  EVER.

I missed one triple to straight away RF.   LITERALLY, that is the only extra base hit he has to either right center field or straight away RF for the ENTIRE season.    That's a player who does not DRIVE the ball to right field.  So, I will take back the fact that he doesn't hit the ball to RF.   My initial point, I think, is correct regarding Mateo.  He doesn't have a good approach and he needs to do better hitting the ball to RF.

Edited September 27, 2022 by RZNJ

[RZNJ]

Adley Rutschman has about 32 doubles.  12 of those doubles are to the left of center field.   So 20 doubles to the right of CF and 12 to the left.    It looks like he might even have more singles to the left of CF than to the right.   There is a huge difference in homers as all but one go to RF.   However, minus the home runs, he has a good distribution of hits, including doubles, to LF.

Edited September 27, 2022 by RZNJ

[Sydnor]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

They say you can't teach an old dog new tricks.   Think of the hitters who did not come up through the Elias minor league system or were not drafted by Elias as the old dog.   They are generally not patient hitters and have a pull heavy approach.   The most extreme examples are Hays, Mateo, Mountcastle, and Odor.    Less extreme are Santander and Mullins.

The new dogs?    Rutschman, Vavra, Stowers, Henderson.

Stowers and Henderson are a bit more agressive than Rutschman and Vavra and Stowers looks to be the least patient of the three and the most succeptible for going outside the zone.   However, all four have shown, so far, to have a strong willingness to go the other way.   The willingness to go the other way goes hand in hand with not swinging at pitches out of the zone.   Stowers had had a bunch of hits to the left of center field, including his homer runs.   How many doubles to LF has Rutschman had as a LH hitter?   Henderson has used LF quite a bit and Vavra was hitting almost exclusively to LF when he first came up.   He was starting to pull the ball more before he got hurt because you can't just do one thing.   You have to be able to hit the ball everywhere to be a really good hitter.

I've been watching highlights of Norfolk and some of the games.   Our top 4 guys down there, Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and Norby are all good at going opposite field and all do so with power.   Ortiz, Norby, and Cowser almost seem to favor going the opposite way whereas Westburg seems like he likes to pull more than the others.    All four of these players look like well rounded hitters.    While Henderson and Rutschmann look like studs and Vavra and Stowers have yet to really make a mark, just watching these hitters is a pleasure and gives me a ton of hope that things are headed in the right direction.

Maybe some of the old dogs can even learn new tricks.   Mateo had that 50 game stretch where he looked like a professional hitter.  Mountcastle has been waiting longer (3 walks last night?) and going more to RF more.   Who knows?

 

Small sample size, but Henderson swings at less pitches outside the zone than all three of the other players listed at 23.8%. Stowers swings at the second most pitches outside the zone on the team at 41.3% (topped only by Mountcastle at 41.4%). With respect to in-zone swing percentages, Vavra (77.7%) and Stowers (76.5%) are second and third on the team behind Mountcastle. Henderson at 70.3% is in the middle of the pack. Adley, at 65.2%, is the most selective on the team when swinging  at pitches in the zone. The in-zone swing percentages are particularly important in my opinion because it shows Adley and Gunnar are looking for pitches they can do damage on. Santander is at 68.6% in zone, and I think it has helped fuel his jump in power this season.

[RZNJ]

Ryan Mountcastle, to my surprise, has a good distribution of doubles and home runs to RF, with 7 homer runs and 10 doubles to RF.

[Can_of_corn]

50 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ryan Mountcastle, to my surprise, has a good distribution of doubles and home runs to RF, with 7 homer runs and 10 doubles to RF.

So you never looked at his spray charts from 2020 and 2021?

 

[Can_of_corn]

Mouncastle is slightly less than a year older than Adley.  He's had Elias as a GM since his age 22 season.

I think it's a convenient excuse to wave your hands in the air and declare him an "old dog". 

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mouncastle is slightly less than a year older than Adley.  He's had Elias as a GM since his age 22 season.

I think it's a convenient excuse to wave your hands in the air and declare him an "old dog". 

No. You just like to shoot things down without supporting the argument.

Mountcastle wasn't chosen by Elias. My guess, and it's only that, is that he wouldn't have been chosen by Elias because Elias wants people with good OBP skills. 

RZNJ's post is on point even if you can nitpick a small sample here or a nugget there. Elias wants guys with better OBP skills and trains that heavily from the minute they enter the org.

The question for me is whether an old dog can learn a new trick. Santander, for example, has improved his bb% and reduced his k% this year. Neither are extreme improvements, but taken together it's been a real benefit. Can others do it?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

No. You just like to shoot things down without supporting the argument.

Mountcastle wasn't chosen by Elias. My guess, and it's only that, is that he wouldn't have been chosen by Elias because Elias wants people with good OBP skills. 

RZNJ's post is on point even if you can nitpick a small sample here or a nugget there. Elias wants guys with better OBP skills and trains that heavily from the minute they enter the org.

The question for me is whether an old dog can learn a new trick. Santander, for example, has improved his bb% and reduced his k% this year. Neither are extreme improvements, but taken together it's been a real benefit. Can others do it?

If a student fails are they at fault or the teacher?

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If a student fails are they at fault or the teacher?

I'll have to ask Frobby.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If a student fails are they at fault or the teacher?

Depends.  

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you never looked at his spray charts from 2020 and 2021?

 

Nope.  Just 2022 after I read Frobby's post.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Depends.  

I agree but thought it was too good a line to not use. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Nope.  Just 2022 after I read Frobby's post.

Huh, I figured most folks looked at his 2021 spray chart after they announced the change to the wall. 

But yea, he isn't a big pull hitter.