Correa opts out…should the Os pursue him?

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I'm talking about guys who are at AAA and going by reports on their defense.   That's a lot different than a kid who has played 5-10 games in low A.   Also, what's that got to do with the fact that Bobby Witt was drafted 1:2 overall as a SS and was found lacking defensively at the ML level.   Holliday could be a GG caliber SS.  I'm just saying it's too early to annoint him that.

You seem to be well aware of the risks regarding prospects, even highly decorated ones, in regards to Holliday, but remarkably sanguine about the risks regarding handing starting spots to a couple of decent prospects in regards to Ortiz and Westburg.  Seems a bit incongruent to me is all.

[tntoriole]

Pass.. for all the reasons cited.. good luck getting a 5 year plus deal at 150 mil or whatever… that lucky team will regret it. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You seem to be well aware of the risks regarding prospects, even highly decorated ones, in regards to Holliday, but remarkably sanguine about the risks regarding handing starting spots to a couple of decent prospects in regards to Ortiz and Westburg.  Seems a bit incongruent to me is all.

You seem to be ignoring the fact that I'm talking about two highly regarded guys like Westburg and Ortiz who put up the numbers in AAA and both are considered good to plus defensively.  Ortiz at SS and 2B.   Westburg at 3B or 2B.    There are no guarantees but I'm talking about replacing Mateo and/or Odor in the lineup.   That's a lot different than a kid who is 2-3 years away who we have a lot less to go on, particularly on his defense.   I have little doubt that Holliday is a SS.    I have no idea how he compares and will compare to Henderson or Ortiz defensively or what the makeup of the Oriole infield will be in 2025.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You seem to be ignoring the fact that I'm talking about two highly regarded guys like Westburg and Ortiz who put up the numbers in AAA and both are considered good to plus defensively.  Ortiz at SS and 2B.   Westburg at 3B or 2B.    There are no guarantees but I'm talking about replacing Mateo and/or Odor in the lineup.   That's a lot different than a kid who is 2-3 years away who we have a lot less to go on, particularly on his defense.   I have little doubt that Holliday is a SS.    I have no idea how he compares and will compare to Henderson or Ortiz defensively or what the makeup of the Oriole infield will be in 2025.

Mateo and Urias- forget about Odor, he's already been replaced- were worth a cumulative 7 WAR last year.  What do you think the odds are that Oriz and Westburg are worth that next year?  And what are the odds that Mateo and Urias can repeat that?  Those are the questions that should be answered.

Again, I'm not guaranteeing that Holliday is the SS in 2025.  I'm saying clearly that is the Orioles' plan.

[Low Country Bird]

22 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I was.  I complimented him almost as soon as he came over from San Diego.  He was much more fundamentally sound than I expected.

Now, I didn't expect him to pick it like he did this year, but he obviously was a natural SS.

I should apologize though because when I responded to that post I was actually thinking of Urias.

Ortiz is described as a natural ss as well, so it's certainly a lot closer than it is with Urias, but I think it's folly to expect any prospect to match GG defense.

I suggest you peruse the Minor League Board Joey Ortiz thread for his defensive highlights.  I think he will be a GG shortstop.  

[tntoriole]

Payroll wise.. if we sign anyone at 20 million a year it will be a budget neutral signing as we paid Chris Davis 23 mil this year in last big year (although still getting 9 mil plus for next 3 years and declining amounts till he is 51) 

or look at the Jason Heyward contract now ending etc 

 

Mega deals for these position players almost always create more problems than they solve 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Low Country Bird said:

I suggest you peruse the Minor League Board Joey Ortiz thread for his defensive highlights.  I think he will be a GG shortstop.  

Yeah, I was wrong.  I read that as Urias.

However, while I understand Ortiz is highly regarded defensively by scouts, there are still risks in all prospect profiles.

But I hope, of course, he does become a GG SS.  That would put him in Mateo's category.

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well you undervalue him by not valuing him as what he is: An everyday player.  Yes, he's a poor hitter, but he does literally everything else on the field exceptionally well.  Culmulatively he's an above average regular, or at least he performed as one this year.  You don't think he'll maintain that going forward; I do.  We'll have to wait and see.

I look at this as an 80/20 situation, like the Ravens approach things.

Mateo provides 80% of the value of for 20% of the cost.  In reality, it's probably more like 70/5.

Ortiz will do the same thing..for even less money and more offense and he’s younger.

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It's interesting to me that people just assume that Holliday is the SS of the future.   We don't know a whole lot about his defense at SS.   There's a chance that Gunnar is a better SS now and long term.  Possible.  Just saying.   Holliday is 18.   He's not tall.  He may fill out and not have great range.  Who knows?    It's a bit early to assume he's the best SS option in the system.   He looks like he's going to be very good offensively and he's "supposed" to be solid defensively but everyone is just handing him the SS job in 2-3 years.

Well, Mike Elias, you know the guy making the decisions, believes he is the SS of the future.

Yes things can change but you don’t draft him first without thinking he’s going to do what you drafted him for and do it quickly.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Ortiz will do the same thing..for even less money and more offense and he’s younger.

I hope so.  And when that day comes, Mateo's status with the club will obviously change.

[DrungoHazewood]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It's interesting to me that people just assume that Holliday is the SS of the future.   We don't know a whole lot about his defense at SS.   There's a chance that Gunnar is a better SS now and long term.  Possible.  Just saying.   Holliday is 18.   He's not tall.  He may fill out and not have great range.  Who knows?    It's a bit early to assume he's the best SS option in the system.   He looks like he's going to be very good offensively and he's "supposed" to be solid defensively but everyone is just handing him the SS job in 2-3 years.

The context of this discussion is do we sign Correa to a 6-8 year deal at $200M+.  To answer that question you need to consider that there are reasonable chances that Holliday, Mateo and Henderson are all above-average MLB shortstops.  So this very substantial investment in Correa would necessarily block or mean a change in position or trade for several of them.  And for a good long while all of them will be much cheaper.

[NCRaven]

Hitting with an OPS above 81 would also put Ortiz above Mateo’s level.  I like Mateo, as a late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner; not as a starter.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Yeah, I was wrong.  I read that as Urias.

However, while I understand Ortiz is highly regarded defensively by scouts, there are still risks in all prospect profiles.

But I hope, of course, he does become a GG SS.  That would put him in Mateo's category.

There’s also a huge risk in expecting a player to match a defensive season that he has never come close to showing before and that is after a long pro career.

You want to ignore that for some reason.  You want to ignore that several other players had a better OAA than he did. You want to ignore the idea that defense can and does peak.

He may still be a GG level SS going forward. Acting like it’s a sure thing is wrong. 

[Sports Guy]

Is there a scenario where you think going after Correa makes sense?

The only thing I can think of is that they trade multiple IF prospects and have an internal belief that they can move Holliday to CF and he just fine with that. 
 

I can’t really think of anything else that would make sense.

[Ohfan67]

Seems dumb to pay for Correa's inevitable decline on a long-term deal when there are young Orioles who play the same position who are likely to be much better values as early as next year and definitely better values in three or four years. Correa missed some games again this year...may have a higher than average injury risk. He's a very, very good player, but not a good fit for the Orioles right now IMO. Could probably get significantly more OPS+ for the money at 1B or a corner OF position. And of course the Orioles may have to spend $$ on pitching. Just doesn't compute.