Lyles, Voth, Gallagher and Garcia

[MCO'sFan]

Those ERA projections seem wildly optimistic especially Bradish who had a 4.90 this year. But sign me up. Frankly, I think it's 50/50 he is in the rotation to start the season. I can't imagine Voth not being tendered. I think he starts in the pen as a swingman. I can see a scenario where he beats out Bradish for a rotation spot too. I think as of today the only "lock" for the rotation at the start of the season and is currently on the roster is Kremer. Who knows where Grayson will start. I think it is likely that he starts in AAA to manage his innings. We know Means will start the year on the IL. Bradish, Wells, Zimmerman, Voth, Watkins, Ellis, Baumann, and Hall are all question marks. I wouldn't hate it if Lyles was in the rotation but not at 11M. He can be an asset if he's the 5th started who eats innings and at least keeps you in games. With so many young guys (even if there is a TOR FA signed) having someone like Lyles would be valuable. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So Jordan Lyles turns 32 tomorrow and will play at that age through the 2023 season. He was worth $11.5 M last year according to Fangraphs. So how likely is he to repeat 2022?

Well, in 2022 he pitched the second most innings of his career (179). He had 180 for Texas in 2021. Does he give you another 180ish inning in 2023? I doubt it and I hope not. I hope the O's have better pitchers taking those innings. But, remember, his value is very much tied to eating innings. So if he gets those innings, does he likely pitch well enough to earn his money?

The league hit .275 against him in 2022 with a 10.4% barrel rate and a 38.1% hard hit rate. 

Since 2019 his Barrel % has gone 7.6%--> 7.8%-->9.1%-->10.4%. Not a good trend. Similarly, his K% 24.4-->13.5 (2020)-->19.0-->18.6.

Since 2019 His FB velocity, 92.6-->92.2-->92.8-->91.5.

So tell me why you think there is a high likelihood Lyles earns his $11M salary in 2023? I just don't think it's very likely.

I’d put it this way:  his 2021-22 performance is about the best we realistically can hope for from Lyles, and we could get a worse performance from him.   

I do think there’s a value that comes from a guy who can go 180ish innings that doesn’t show up when he’s pitching.   There were times this year where the bullpen was being asked to throw 4-5 innings or more almost every night, and a bullpen can implode when that happens too much.  So, having a guy who goes 6-7 innings about half the time and almost never goes less than 5 IP gives the bullpen some needed relief.   

Even though that’s true, at this point I’d rather get 1-2 guys who are capable of throwing a comparable number of innings, and are better.   And, I’m hopeful that the importance of “innings eating” by one guy will be reduced this year because the young starters are starting to get deeper into games themselves and have fewer outings where they’re pulled really early.   

So, I’d like to upgrade from Lyles.


 

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

Those ERA projections seem wildly optimistic especially Bradish who had a 4.90 this year. But sign me up. Frankly, I think it's 50/50 he is in the rotation to start the season. I can't imagine Voth not being tendered. I think he starts in the pen as a swingman. I can see a scenario where he beats out Bradish for a rotation spot too. I think as of today the only "lock" for the rotation at the start of the season and is currently on the roster is Kremer. Who knows where Grayson will start. I think it is likely that he starts in AAA to manage his innings. We know Means will start the year on the IL. Bradish, Wells, Zimmerman, Voth, Watkins, Ellis, Baumann, and Hall are all question marks. I wouldn't hate it if Lyles was in the rotation but not at 11M. He can be an asset if he's the 5th started who eats innings and at least keeps you in games. With so many young guys (even if there is a TOR FA signed) having someone like Lyles would be valuable. 

Bradish learned a lot during the 2022 season.  And he improved.  Some by using analytics, some by the coaching and some by just learning what he was capable of doing.

His 2nd half ERA was 3.28 in 13 starts.  That is who I think he will be next season. if you watched him in the 2nd half he was a guy with a lot of confidence in his own ability.

Edited October 18, 2022 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

I just don’t see any good reason to keep Lyles..unless you are keeping him because you have a trade worked out.

 

[BRobinsonfan]

5 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

I think I'd rather have Voth at 2M (or less) than Lyles at 11M.     Voth seemed to find something here and I like the fact that he could be a swingman.  I'd use that 9M in savings elsewhere.  

When you compare Voth with Lyles on Baseball Reference it's remarkable at how similar they are.  I really liked that Lyles gave us so many innings pitched, but he's a year older than Voth, so if he's a year old and more expensive, Voth could be the better option.  

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

The O's lost Means, Grayson and Tyler Wells to injuries in 2022.  I think we have to project 9 starters.  Especially  with Means, Grayson, Hall and Tyler Wells with limited innings.

I agree. My main point was if the ERAs/IPs you projected were what we actually got from our guys, we wouldn't really need anything else. That said, I expect regression from Voth and Kremer (in terms of ERA) and while Bradish may improve on his overall numbers (given the early season struggles he had this year), I'm not expecting any of the three to have much better than a 4 ERA (maybe they will, but I don't expect it--particularly with the shift going away). 

I do think the Orioles should add a TOR type starter (either in trade or FA) and add that to Rodriguez, Bradish, Kremer and either Wells or Voth and that's a solid top 5 plus a solid #6. From there, Hall, Baumann, Zimmermann, Watkins (if he's back), and in the second half Means are all more depth options. 

Back to the point of the OP, Voth should DEFINITELY be tendered. Lyles is not really necessary to have the option picked up and there's probably better uses for those funds. 

[wildcard]

42 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I agree. My main point was if the ERAs/IPs you projected were what we actually got from our guys, we wouldn't really need anything else. That said, I expect regression from Voth and Kremer (in terms of ERA) and while Bradish may improve on his overall numbers (given the early season struggles he had this year), I'm not expecting any of the three to have much better than a 4 ERA (maybe they will, but I don't expect it--particularly with the shift going away). 

I do think the Orioles should add a TOR type starter (either in trade or FA) and add that to Rodriguez, Bradish, Kremer and either Wells or Voth and that's a solid top 5 plus a solid #6. From there, Hall, Baumann, Zimmermann, Watkins (if he's back), and in the second half Means are all more depth options. 

Back to the point of the OP, Voth should DEFINITELY be tendered. Lyles is not really necessary to have the option picked up and there's probably better uses for those funds. 

I think Zimmermann gets DFA'd in hopes of signing him to a minor league contract.   Baumann is probably a reliever which Tony has been saying for years.  He has an option left and may shuttle between the majors and the minors.  He has not dominated at AAA yet.

Watkins has options and is surprisingly decent  for a  depth player when starting.  I was surprised that his ERA was 4.17 when starting in 2022. And that was in 20 starts.

Edited October 18, 2022 by wildcard

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So Jordan Lyles turns 32 tomorrow and will play at that age through the 2023 season. He was worth $11.5 M last year according to Fangraphs. So how likely is he to repeat 2022?

Well, in 2022 he pitched the second most innings of his career (179). He had 180 for Texas in 2021. Does he give you another 180ish inning in 2023? I doubt it and I hope not. I hope the O's have better pitchers taking those innings. But, remember, his value is very much tied to eating innings. So if he gets those innings, does he likely pitch well enough to earn his money?

The league hit .275 against him in 2022 with a 10.4% barrel rate and a 38.1% hard hit rate. 

Since 2019 his Barrel % has gone 7.6%--> 7.8%-->9.1%-->10.4%. Not a good trend. Similarly, his K% 24.4-->13.5 (2020)-->19.0-->18.6.

Since 2019 His FB velocity, 92.6-->92.2-->92.8-->91.5.

So tell me why you think there is a high likelihood Lyles earns his $11M salary in 2023? I just don't think it's very likely.

You, yourself, said Fangraphs had him worth 11.5 M in 2022.    He doesn't have be be worth 11 M for it to make sense to pick up the 11 M.   We can, hypotheically, trade Cedric Mullins for a slightly better Pablo Lopez.   Then we have to replace Mullins.   We can sign an upgrade to Lyles in FA.     To get a slight upgrade to Lyles in FA, I'd have to commit more years and dollars.   Signing Lyles shouldn't exclude getting another pitcher who is both an upgrade and also a good bet to eat innings.

We have some promising pitchers in the running for the rotation.  However, Bradish, Kremer, Rodriguez, Wells are all question marks when it comes to workload and lasting through the season.   Lyles has a track record of durability and you're only committing to one year to him while, hopefully, our guys become more dependable and durable.  

 

[Jim'sKid26]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You, yourself, said Fangraphs had him worth 11.5 M in 2022.    He doesn't have be be worth 11 M for it to make sense to pick up the 11 M.   We can, hypotheically, trade Cedric Mullins for a slightly better Pablo Lopez.   Then we have to replace Mullins.   We can sign an upgrade to Lyles in FA.     To get a slight upgrade to Lyles in FA, I'd have to commit more years and dollars.   Signing Lyles shouldn't exclude getting another pitcher who is both an upgrade and also a good bet to eat innings.

We have some promising pitchers in the running for the rotation.  However, Bradish, Kremer, Rodriguez, Wells are all question marks when it comes to workload and lasting through the season.   Lyles has a track record of durability and you're only committing to one year to him while, hopefully, our guys become more dependable and durable.  

 

My point is that he is very unlikely to be worth $11M next year. Alot of his stats are treading in the wrong direction. 180 innings of Jordan Lyles in 2023 is not likely to be as valuable as it was in 2022 and you are paying $4M more for less production. As a team trying to get better, why spend that money and get less? Why not allocate that money to get better production?

[BRobinsonfan]

I thinking picking up the $11 million option on Lyles would be a costly mistake.  However, having said that, if would could get him back on the cheap - say $2.5 million + the $1 million to buy out his option - then I'd consider it good insurance for a back of the rotation starter, long reliever.  

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

My point is that he is very unlikely to be worth $11M next year. Alot of his stats are treading in the wrong direction. 180 innings of Jordan Lyles in 2023 is not likely to be as valuable as it was in 2022 and you are paying $4M more for less production. As a team trying to get better, why spend that money and get less? Why not allocate that money to get better production?

Yep

The goal shouldn’t be to have status quo. The goal should be to get better.  Hard to get better if you basically bring back the same staff plus GRod, at least better to the point where your pitching is good enough to go toe to toe with the best teams.

Edited October 18, 2022 by Sports Guy

[btdart20]

IMO, Lyles is an easy no.  He was signed with an unknown team timeline.  Meaning, the role he's currently filling (innings eater) has shifted a bit (quality TOR innings eater).  I feel for him because he actually earned the option in his contract.  But the team's needs (in context of how well other SPs performed this year) are beyond that contract at this point.  That money just isn't a cost-effective use of the budget assuming the goal is to take the next step/raise the bar to be more competitive.

Voth's success (and limitations) put him in an awkward spot.  As the team's goals shift, his role probably becomes more marginal and easier to move on from.  $1-2m is negligible if he can be repeat on what he did this year with the O's.  He's a fringy SP for OD even without adding an arm (Grayson, Kremer, Bradish, Hall, Wells, Voth, Watkins - I think Elias wants to give Hall his shot at starting).  With no options he's hemmed in even further.

I think it's a matter of how he can handle multiple roles (multi-inning guy out of the BP and spot starter).  Voth's CB is a legit pitch (and Elias/Sig seem to like pitchers with a something special).  The CB usage has ticked up consistently over the years and has improved.  Everything else is marginal/keep 'em honest pitches.  One concern I have is the combination of his age (30) and marginal FB velo (93) will likely start causing the MPH to start ticking down.  And he needs every competitive advantage he can get. His R/L splits aren't wide.  His OPACY triple slash allowed was .285/.328/.448 which led to a 3.56 ERA at home.  I'm curious to see what his R/L splits are at OPACY but I can't find that level of data...

I'd like to see if he can continue his success.  I think they'll keep him to start the season (since he has no options) to see what happens.  But he'll be on a short leash.  Great story, but "it's a business."

 

[AnythingO's]

27 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

My point is that he is very unlikely to be worth $11M next year. Alot of his stats are treading in the wrong direction. 180 innings of Jordan Lyles in 2023 is not likely to be as valuable as it was in 2022 and you are paying $4M more for less production. As a team trying to get better, why spend that money and get less? Why not allocate that money to get better production?

I think you are unlikely to get much better production for the $10M Lyles costs you. Bringing him back doesn't stop you from getting 1-2 more starters. We could trade Mullins (Lopez) for example and go FA for the other but a better FA likely costs $15 M and multi-years. The trade would mean you need to spend $10M on a position player replacement. You can pencil in Grayson (100 inn), Kremer (125), Bradish (125). Even with a trade (Lopez?) and a FA eating 175 inn each you are short on SP innings. To me I look at Lyles combined with Means as 1 SP for 175 inn. If Means is ready to go in July you move Lyles for salary relief. Wells, Voth, Watkins are swing starters picking up when one of the SPs gets hurt or isn't performing.

[Aristotelian]

I think we pick up the option on Lyles and still sign a FA pitcher. That would leave Voth out of the rotation but he will get opportunities. Rotation would be FA, Grayson, Lyles, Kremer, Bradish to start the year. I would assume Voth and Means get opportunities. 

I would keep Wells in the bullpen. I'd rather stretch him out if needed later in the season than assume he is going to be a starter and have him get injured or burned out by the end of the year. Wells, Baumann, and Zimmermann would be depth. 

 

 

[wildcard]

59 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I think you are unlikely to get much better production for the $10M Lyles costs you. Bringing him back doesn't stop you from getting 1-2 more starters. We could trade Mullins (Lopez) for example and go FA for the other but a better FA likely costs $15 M and multi-years. The trade would mean you need to spend $10M on a position player replacement. You can pencil in Grayson (100 inn), Kremer (125), Bradish (125). Even with a trade (Lopez?) and a FA eating 175 inn each you are short on SP innings. To me I look at Lyles combined with Means as 1 SP for 175 inn. If Means is ready to go in July you move Lyles for salary relief. Wells, Voth, Watkins are swing starters picking up when one of the SPs gets hurt or isn't performing.

Elias may be willing to go 2/30 or 2/40 for the right upgrade.