Elias sounds like he is shooting high

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Better than Lyles can’t be the bar.  That’s not a difficult bar to clear. 

The bar should be high upside, mid to top of rotation arms.  We don’t need more 3/4 type guys.

Highly unlikely that the O's pay the money for a 1-2 starter from FA.  And probably just as unlikely the can trade for one.    

Reality is that the O's have to grow their TOR starters.  Grayson, Hall, Bradish and Kremer all have a chance to be TOR starters in time.    

The best the O's can probably do this off season is to add a #3 is my guess.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would Ubaldo be considered big money? Adjusted for inflation his contract might be about 4/$70M today. That would get us into Bassist/Senga territory but not Rodon/Degrom.

 

Baseball hasn’t had much salary inflation since 2014.  Free agent salaries have been running about $8 mm/fWAR ever since then.  

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Highly unlikely that the O's pay the money for a 1-2 starter from FA.  And probably just as unlikely the can trade for one.    

Reality is that the O's have to grow their TOR starters.  Grayson, Hall, Bradish and Kremer all have a chance to be TOR starters in time.    

The best the O's can probably do this off season is to add a #3 is my guess.

I’m not asking for them to trade 4-5 guys for a starter or sign someone for 9 figures.  What I am looking for is for them to go get some higher upside arms in trade.  A guy like Cabrera from Miami. He may not be a TOR guy today but he could be soon.  
 

They need to use the depth they have to get players like that.  Taillon, Manaea, etc.,they are what they are.  They are very unlikely to get better. There’s limited upside there.

[wildcard]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Baseball hasn’t had much salary inflation since 2014.  Free agent salaries have been running about $8 mm/fWAR ever since then.  

This lists does not seem to agree this that:

1. Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30)
2. Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32)
3. Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31)
4. Fernando Tatis, $340,000,000 (2021-34)
5. Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31)
6. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
7. Corey Seager, $325,000,000 (2022-31)
8. Gerrit Cole, $324,000,000 (2020-28)
9. Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28)
10. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)

And I don't think there were 40m/yr players in 2014.

Edited November 19, 2022 by wildcard

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not asking for them to trade 4-5 guys for a starter or sign someone for 9 figures.  What I am looking for is for them to go get some higher upside arms in trade.  A guy like Cabrera from Miami. He may not be a TOR guy today but he could be soon.  
 

They need to use the depth they have to get players like that.  Taillon, Manaea, etc.,they are what they are.  They are very unlikely to get better. There’s limited upside there.

Didn't Elias do that with Seth Johnson?   The hope is that Hall and Johnson will add to Grayson, Kremer, Bradish in the next couple of years.  And the #3 FA can be traded for prospects.

Elias may try to find another Seth Johnson but I think the guy he tries to do it with  is Santander at the deadline.   Santander is getting expensive and his free agency is getting closer.   

That is one way Elias could play this.  Stack up the prospects in the majors and AAA.  And trade away players as they get more  expensive.

I could see Elias adding a #3 starter, JD Martinez and a backup catcher.   Any one or all three  could be trade chips at the deadline depending on how things work out.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

They need to use the depth they have to get players like that.  Taillon, Manaea, etc.,they are what they are.  They are very unlikely to get better. There’s limited upside there.

I agree with that, but strategically the Orioles roster of Arms has a lot of need for better Jordan Lyleses.

350 innings of Taillon and Manaea's results might not differ greatly from 350 of Rodon, Watkins and Zimmermann.    And when not if partially established pitchers like Bradish, Kremer and Wells never mind completely unestablished pitchers like Rodriguez and Hall can't hold down rotation jobs all year, that's who you're using.

The upside drivers of the Orioles roster are the young guys - vets just need to keep the ball out of the gutter.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Didn't Elias do that with Seth Johnson?   The hope is that Hall and Johnson will add to Grayson, Kremer, Bradish in the next couple of years.  And the #3 FA can be traded for prospects.

Elias may try to find another Seth Johnson but I think the guy he tries to do it with  is Santander at the deadline.   Santander is getting expensive and his free agency is getting closer.   

That is one way Elias could play this.  Stack up the prospects in the majors and AAA.  And trade away players as they get more  expensive.

I could see Elias adding a #3 starter, JD Martinez and a backup catcher.   Any one or all three  could be trade chips at the deadline depending on how things work out.

Seth Johnson isn’t helping us in 2023 and you have no idea how he will look once he comes back.  He was a great get but there should be zero plan where he enters the picture at all.

[wildcard]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Seth Johnson isn’t helping us in 2023 and you have no idea how he will look once he comes back.  He was a great get but there should be zero plan where he enters the picture at all.

Elias plays the long game.

[NCRaven]

If Elias goes after Lopez, he should try to get Max Meyer in the deal.  That’s Seth Johnson 2.0

[Aristotelian]

34 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

If Elias goes after Lopez, he should try to get Max Meyer in the deal.  That’s Seth Johnson 2.0

Lopez would be a throw in for a Max Meyer deal.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

This lists does not seem to agree this that:

1. Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30)
2. Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32)
3. Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31)
4. Fernando Tatis, $340,000,000 (2021-34)
5. Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31)
6. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
7. Corey Seager, $325,000,000 (2022-31)
8. Gerrit Cole, $324,000,000 (2020-28)
9. Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28)
10. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)

And I don't think there were 40m/yr player in 2014.

At roughly $8 mm/fWAR, Trout has been worth $150 mm the first 4 years of his contract and has been paid $125 mm.  Betts has been worth $83 mm and has been paid $66 mm in his first two years. Lindor was worth $54 mm in the first year of his deal and was paid $34 mm.  Harper has been worth $118 mm the first 4 years and has been $93 mm.  Seager was worth $36 mm, paid $33 mm the first year.  Cole has been worth $79 mm, paid $85 mm the first three years.  Machado has been worth $131 mm, paid $88 mm in 4 years.  All those deals except Cole have been better than the going rate of $8 mm/WAR.

Stanton and Tatis have to be judged a little differently because they cover some non-FA years.   The going rate for those years is less than $8 mm/yr.  Stanton’s has been a loser so far and you really can’t say about Tatis.  
 

[Three Run Homer]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I have seen reports that the Padres, Astros and Red Sox are all interested in Abreu.  He gets to pick where he wants to go.  Seems like that makes the O's chances of signing him as low.

I think it will be very hard to sign good right handed free agent hitters to play in Baltimore with the new dimensions.  

[Three Run Homer]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

What is a lot of money?  Is 3/45-50m?

The Angels recently signed Tyler Anderson for 3/39.   We should have been willing to beat that.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

This lists does not seem to agree this that:

1. Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30)
2. Mookie Betts, $365,000,000 (2021-32)
3. Francisco Lindor, $341,000,000 (2022-31)
4. Fernando Tatis, $340,000,000 (2021-34)
5. Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31)
6. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
7. Corey Seager, $325,000,000 (2022-31)
8. Gerrit Cole, $324,000,000 (2020-28)
9. Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28)
10. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)

And I don't think there were 40m/yr players in 2014.

Sure on the top end the average salary is going up, but the average player salary has been flat since 2016. I attribute it to teams not overpaying for veteran free agents at the same rate as in the past. 

Spending big money on lengthy contracts for players over 30 years old doesn't generally work out very well. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/236213/mean-salaray-of-players-in-majpr-league-baseball/

 

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

At roughly $8 mm/fWAR, Trout has been worth $150 mm the first 4 years of his contract and has been paid $125 mm.  Betts has been worth $83 mm and has been paid $66 mm in his first two years. Lindor was worth $54 mm in the first year of his deal and was paid $34 mm.  Harper has been worth $118 mm the first 4 years and has been $93 mm.  Seager was worth $36 mm, paid $33 mm the first year.  Cole has been worth $79 mm, paid $85 mm the first three years.  Machado has been worth $131 mm, paid $88 mm in 4 years.  All those deals except Cole have been better than the going rate of $8 mm/WAR.

Stanton and Tatis have to be judged a little differently because they cover some non-FA years.   The going rate for those years is less than $8 mm/yr.  Stanton’s has been a loser so far and you really can’t say about Tatis.  
 

Like any lawyer you changed the subject.   You said: "Baseball hasn’t had much salary inflation since 2014."   Clearly the contracts have gotten bigger and are inflated over those of 2014.

Edited November 20, 2022 by wildcard