If the Orioles are to be contenders in 2023…

[Sports Guy]

…is it wrong to hand over spots to so many rookies?

One of the things talked about on here a lot so far this offseason is the makeup of the rotation and the IF, as well as the readiness of a player like Cowser.

The Orioles could, in theory, have Westburg and Ortiz in the IF, along with another rookie in Gunnar Henderson.

Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall could be in the rotation.

Cowser could be in the OF or at least be there within a few months of the season starting.

Couple that with the youth of last year and do you feel we are expecting too much out of the young players in a year where contending should be happening?

[olddogger]

To borrow from another poster here "if they're ready; they're ready!"

 

No advantage to giving their playing time to a stopgap. 

 

Give them the experience they need to bring home the championship(s),

[IPlayGM]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

…is it wrong to hand over spots to so many rookies?

One of the things talked about on here a lot so far this offseason is the makeup of the rotation and the IF, as well as the readiness of a player like Cowser.

The Orioles could, in theory, have Westburg and Ortiz in the IF, along with another rookie in Gunnar Henderson.

Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall could be in the rotation.

Cowser could be in the OF or at least be there within a few months of the season starting.

Couple that with the youth of last year and do you feel we are expecting too much out of the young players in a year where contending should be happening?

I guess my question to this is what is the alternative? Trade these guys for established players I guess is the answer, but I just don’t think that is the MO of the front office. I do think you have to have a healthy blend of youth and experience, and I think we will see that this winter, but by and large this plan has to work based on the developed talent as the foundation, and added pieces as the supplement.

But to the original post, I would say yes we are expecting a lot out of these rookies.  And I feel okay with that, even if it doesn’t make us World Series contenders THIS YEAR….My hope is continued progression, which would mean playoffs this year and/or 88wins

[IPlayGM]

And to me the great unknown is payroll. I think that really factors into this scenario. If we truly knew what the payroll outlook would be, we would be in a better place to make conjectures about this.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

I guess my question to this is what is the alternative? Trade these guys for established players I guess is the answer, but I just don’t think that is the MO of the front office. I do think you have to have a healthy blend of youth and experience, and I think we will see that this winter, but by and large this plan has to work based on the developed talent as the foundation, and added pieces as the supplement.

But to the original post, I would say yes we are expecting a lot out of these rookies.  And I feel okay with that, even if it doesn’t make us World Series contenders THIS YEAR….My hope is continued progression, which would mean playoffs this year and/or 88wins

The alternative is spending more money on vets and making more trades, so we aren’t relying so much on youth.

 

Edited November 18, 2022 by Sports Guy

[tabletop]

No, let the best players play.

[Frobby]

I think one of Westburg or Ortiz has a chance to make the team, but it’s highly unlikely both will make it out of spring training.  I think there’s no real chance Cowser makes the team out of spring training.   I’m expecting a minimum of two significant player acquisitions, one hitter, one pitcher, and probably some other smaller acquisitions.   So, I don’t think the scenario you proposed in the OP will really come to pass.   

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The alternative is spending more money on vets and making more trades, so we aren’t relying so much on youth.

 

Hasn’t Elias made it crystal clear he will do this?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hasn’t Elias made it crystal clear he will do this?

Well first of all, he has to do it.

Secondly, he can do this and still rely on these guys too much.

 

[Pickles]

I think the answer is: It depends on who they're replacing.

Westburg taking at-bats from Odor is likely to make us better.  Very, very likely imo.

Ortiz taking at-bats from Mateo and Urias is not so likely.  In fact, probably makes us worse.  Same logic applies to Cowser over Hays/Santander.  

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think one of Westburg or Ortiz has a chance to make the team, but it’s highly unlikely both will make it out of spring training.  I think there’s no real chance Cowser makes the team out of spring training.   I’m expecting a minimum of two significant player acquisitions, one hitter, one pitcher, and probably some other smaller acquisitions.   So, I don’t think the scenario you proposed in the OP will really come to pass.   

To me the bat is looking more like JD Martinez to DH.   Abreu seems to want to play 1B a good bit.  And Santander, Mountcastle, etc have not hit well has DHs.   So the O's really need a guy that will hit out of the DH spot.   Martinez is not perfect but he is the best fit I see at 2/30.  

Abreu has also been rumored to go to the Astros and the Red Sox both of which are better fits for him to play 1B.

I agree with you that the bat that is added should be able to hit lefties.

Edited November 18, 2022 by wildcard

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Ortiz taking at-bats from Mateo and Urias is not so likely.  In fact, probably makes us worse.  Same logic applies to Cowser over Hays/Santander.  

As an unofficial Cowser Opening Day cheerleader, just want to clarify I agree with this.    I do feel Cowser's upside above Stowers as the starting DH combined with him having a fighting chance against other AL rookies should he get a Steven Kwan-ian 650 PA give it a chance.

If Elias buys another Hays/Santander level Bat to upgrade Stowers-Cowser, those dynamics change.

My current pref list to take PA for the '23 Orioles, among incumbents on the bubble:

1. Kyle Stowers

2. Austin Voth

<big gap>

3. Spenser Watkins

Kremer, Bradish, T. Wells, Grayson pitching 4 of the first 5 games feels good.    The 1st Arm bought unseats Voth (if he is tendered).     The 2nd Arm bought unseats T. Wells, as he continues his Garrett Whitlock "what role do I pitch" Rule 5 parallel baseball life.

It is fine for me if in April DL Hall and Tyler Wells are in the Arm Barn with Akin backing up the Bradish-Kremer duo, neither of whom have survived a year in a MLB rotation yet.     As I don't feel either of Hall or Rodriguez have platform to hold a SP role 26 weeks next season, I don't love them wasting 80 pitch bullets for the Tides at any point in the season.     DL Hall can challenge himself to use his whole repertoire pitching the rest of the game if he relieves somebody in the 4th inning.

[Aristotelian]

I am completely fine with relying on rookies. Baseball is a little.different where the "rookies" have been playing professionally at a high level for a long time before they get to MLB. I love that we are a young team with a long window to compete

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, he has to do it.

Secondly, he can do this and still rely on these guys too much.

 

I am not concerned about either of those two scenarios.   My biggest concern is that we commit a good bit of money to a couple of free agents and then they underperform.  I think we need to do it, but that’s the big risk I see.

Even though I think we should be gunning for the playoffs in 2023, it’s still a developmental year at the same time.  If a couple of rookies underperform while learning the ropes in the majors, it still benefits the team in the long run that these players get the experience and that the team have an opportunity to evaluate them in the major league environment.  So, I don’t worry about the risk of relying too much on rookies.  

[Frobby]

You may have seen that Jon Meoli addressed this topic yesterday.  Free article from his Substack site:  Young stars account for a majority of the Orioles' projected success for 2023. How much is too much? (substack.com)