Summary of OH Prospect Grade Changes, 2021-22

[Frobby]

I thought it would be fun to look at how the top prospects’ grades changed between 2021 and 2022, both for overall grades and specific tool grades.  I’ll list them in order of their 2022 rank, excluding the players who weren’t in the organization in 2021.  Any tool grade I don’t mention was unchanged from last year.

1.  Gunnar Henderson (5th last year).  Current value/future value/ceiling went from 35/50/60 in 2021 to 50/65/70 in 2022.   To get there, Henderson improved every single tool’s present value, and three of five future value grades as well.  Hit: 35/50 to 50/60.  Game power: 40/60 to 50/60.   Raw power: 55/65 to 60/65.  Speed: 50/45 to 60/50.  Defense: 30/50 to 50/60.   Wow!

2.  Grayson Rodriguez (2nd last year).  Overall current and future grades held steady at 50/65 but Tony downgraded the ceiling from 75 to 70.   Curve ball was upgraded from 45/50 to 50/55, change from 55/60 to 65/70, slider from 45/55 to 50/55, command from 45/55 to 50/60.  So why the ceiling downgrade?  Don’t know, but a 70 ceiling is still sky high.  

4.  DL Hall (5th last year).  Overall grade went from 45/55/65 to 45/55/60.  The curve slipped from 50/55 to 45/50, and the change from 50/60 to 50/55, but the slider improved from 55/60 to 60/60.  Command steady (or unsteady) at 40/45.   

5.  Coby Mayo (3rd last year).  Overall grade went from 30/60/65 to 35/50/60.  The hit tool was downgraded from 35/60 to 35/50.   Everything else held steady.   

6.  Jordan Westburg (8th last year).  Overall went from 40/50/55 to 45/50/55.  Game power improved from 40/50 to 50/55, raw power from 45/50 to 55/60.

7.   Joey Ortiz (19th last year).   The biggest riser in the system in terms of placement, Ortiz’s overall grades went from 35/45/50 to 45/50/55, same as Westburg.   Hit tool went from 35/50 to 40/50, game power from 40/45 to 45/50, raw power from 45/50 to 50/50.

8.  Colton Cowser (4th last year).  The biggest dropper in the top 10, Cowser’s overall grades went from 45/50/60 to 40/50/55.  The hit tool nosedived from 40/70 to 40/55, though game power rose from 30/50 to 45/50 and raw power from 45/50 to 50/55. Defense improved from 50/50 to 50/55.

9.  Connor Norby (10th last year).  Overall grade went from 35/50/55 to 40/50/55.   The hit tool was slightly downgraded from 40/55 to 40/50, but game power leaped from 35/45 to 50/60 and raw power from 40/45 to 50/60.   Speed dipped from 55/55 to 50/50 while defense was slightly upgraded from 40/50 to 45/50.   

10.  Heston Kjerstad.   Tony didn’t give Kjerstad any “current” tool grades in 2021 but did give him an overall grade of 20/50/65 that was changed to 30/50/55 now that he’s played most of a season.  The future grade for hit tool was lowered from 50 to 45, raw power from 70 to 65, speed from 55 to 45, defense from 50/45.   

11.  Sammy Basallo.  Overall, he went from 20/50/60 to 25/50/60, a modest jump for a guy not in full season ball yet. The only tool grade change was the hit tool, which went from 20/50 to 25/50.   

I’ll continue to add players as they are ranked and graded. Of the 14 players ranked so far, Holiday (3rd), Beaver (12th), Povich (13th) and Fabian (14th) weren’t in our system in 2021, and so aren’t listed above.  

[MijiT88]

Granted I didnt watch much of the minors last year but did cowser's hitting really fall that much while progressing through the minors?

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, MijiT88 said:

Granted I didnt watch much of the minors last year but did cowser's hitting really fall that much while progressing through the minors?

Basically, his strikeout rate was way up.  Note it’s the future grade that dropped (from 70 to 55), not the current grade (steady at 40).  But it seems Cowser will trade off some swing and miss to generate some more power.  

[MijiT88]

makes sense. I was just surprised to see a fast riser drop so much in one category. Hopefully he can figure it out more as he grows, even in the majors

[RZNJ]

I think of a tool as something natural that should be pretty steady.  Having said that it's fair to say Henderson gained speed and Mullins improved his arm strength. 

However, let's look at Cowser.  Did his hit tool get worse or did he just change his approach.  When the Orioles drafted Cowser they felt he had power.  They didn't put a grade on it but they did say they considered him a 5 tool player.  I think the hit tool and raw power haven't changed but the approach has.  IMO, Westburg and Cowser have Mountcastle type of power.  Is that a 60?  Kjerstad has that power too.  Does Mayo have more power? Maybe on the pull side  but I don't think I've ever seen him go oppo.

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I think of a tool as something natural that should be pretty steady.  Having said that it's fair to say Henderson gained speed and Mullins improved his arm strength. 

However, let's look at Cowser.  Did his hit tool get worse or did he just change his approach.  When the Orioles drafted Cowser they felt he had power.  They didn't put a grade on it but they did say they considered him a 5 tool player.  I think the hit tool and raw power haven't changed but the approach has.  

Well, I think this is a very good question. Maybe evaluators thought he’d be able to get to his power without sacrificing some of his hit tool, but now they are thinking maybe he can’t?   That it’s got to be one or the other?  I find the whole concept of a “tool” that has a “current value” and a “future value” kind of odd.   To me, speed is a tool.  Strength is a tool.  Arm strength is a tool.  Hitting and game power aren’t really “tools” at all.   They are skills you develop using your tools.   But decades of scout-speak aren’t going to change.  

[seak05]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I think this is a very good question. Maybe evaluators thought he’d be able to get to his power without sacrificing some of his hit tool, but now they are thinking maybe he can’t?   That it’s got to be one or the other?  I find the whole concept of a “tool” that has a “current value” and a “future value” kind of odd.   To me, speed is a tool.  Strength is a tool.  Arm strength is a tool.  Hitting and game power aren’t really “tools” at all.   They are skills you develop using your tools.   But decades of scout-speak aren’t going to change.  

Hand eye coordination would be a tool though, and is measured by hit, bat speed is a tool etc