What will Cedric Mullins be in 2023?

[Frobby]

There’s still a lot of unknowns with Cedric Mullins going into 2023.  

Through 2020, Mullins was a .225/.290/.342 hitter, who finished 2020 strong.  He had a crazy number of bunt hits that year that left people wondering if his strong finish was sustainable once third baseman started crowding him.   He was also extremely weak against LHP, .440 OPS for his career.

In 2021, Mullins scrapped switch hitting, batting exclusively from the left side.  He started that season on fire, posting a  .314/.380/.541 line through the all star break.  For a long time, he was hitting LHP even better than RHP that year.  But he cooled off after the break, posting a .261/.333/.489 line in the second half.  He ended that year at .931 vs. RHP, .788 vs. LHP.

The 2022 version of Mullins was sort of a mix of the pre-2021 version and the 2021 version.  He hit .258/.318/.403, which included a solid .782 vs. RHP but .579 vs. LHP.  His HR/FB rate went from 12.2% in 2021 to 6.9% in 2022.   Towards the end of the year, Brandon Hyde was sliding Mullins towards the bottom of the order vs. LHP.

So what do we think Mullins will be in 2023?   The 2021 version, the 2022 version, something in between?  Something worse than 2022?

Personally, I think 2022 is probably the truest version of Mullins.   I think 2023 will be similar, but we might see Mullins sit a bit more often vs. LHP.   Last year he started 35 of 50 games vs. a LH starter.  This year I think he might start half the time or less vs. a LH starter.

 

 

[wildcard]

I think going into 2023 Mullins has to be thought of as a platoon player vs right-handed pitching who he went 279/340/441/782 against in 2022 and a defensive player to finish out games when the O's are ahead.

The O's need to pair him with a good CFer that can hit lefties.   McKenna hit  270/333/460/793 vs lefties last year.  It could be him or some one better.

The only way I would trade Mullins is if the O's have some one better ready to be the O's CF to begins 2023.   I think that is unlikely especially when he can steal 35 bases.

Edited November 26, 2022 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

Well, he won't be a minor leaguer, that's for sure.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, he won't be a minor leaguer, that's for sure.

Frobby must've hit the holiday cheer a little too hard. I'll move this.

[Jim'sKid26]

A Marlin?

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Frobby must've hit the holiday cheer a little too hard. I'll move this.

Thanks, Tony.  I hadn’t noticed that I posted in the wrong forum.  

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks, Tony.  I hadn’t noticed that I posted in the wrong forum.  

That is what holiday cheer does to you.

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

That is what holiday cheer does to you.

Hate to say it but I haven’t had a drop today. 

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hate to say it but I haven’t had a drop today. 

You shouldn't admit that.  Go with the cheer.

[Aristotelian]

His 2022 is right in line with his career averages when you adjust for leaguewide offense, 104 vs 109 OPS+. I'd expect somewhere in that range for offense, with excellent CF defense for 3-4 WAR. 

[Jammer7]

I think he’ll have to adjust to being pitched up and in, especially by LHP. He has a hole up there. He did better when he stopped trying to muscle up and pull the ball as much. The lack of a shift should help him some as well. It appeared to me that he also moved in on the plate and dared pitchers to come inside. Maybe he became too pull conscious to try to get back to 30 HR’s again. He got HBP nine times vs. eight in 2021. It seemed like he was constantly getting knocked down or brushed back. 

As to who he is going forward, I think he’ll be better than his 2022 numbers. I think he hangs in well against LHP’s and uses the whole field better than he used to. He’s not a 30 HR guy, and probably not even a consistent 20 HR guy. I would be disappointed if he has to platoon, but I do think he can play about 125-130 games or so, giving him a rest twice a week. Keep him as healthy as possible, maybe DH now and then. 

If he’s .270/.350/.410/.760, that’s a good player to me. I think he is capable of that. With his work ethic, I believe in him and his ability to reach that level. I think he found out some things about himself in 2022. With his health concerns in check, apparently, I look for better numbers than 2022. I don’t see another Silver Slugger coming, though.

 

[forphase1]

I expect him to play a bit less and to regress a little more at the plate.   If we can really trade him to the Marlins as has been rumored, I'd jump on it.   He was incredible in 2021, and I never expect to see that from him again.   He was just good last year, and I think the next few years will fluctuate between good and above average.  

[Snutchy]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hate to say it but I haven’t had a drop today. 

I’m doing the holiday cheering for you. 

[tabletop]

I’d give him another shot as the everyday CF but I expect last year is who he was and he will eventually be a platoon guy.

[now]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

I expect him to play a bit less and to regress a little more at the plate.   If we can really trade him to the Marlins as has been rumored, I'd jump on it.   He was incredible in 2021, and I never expect to see that from him again.   He was just good last year, and I think the next few years will fluctuate between good and above average.  

Curious about "rumors," which imply "leaks," which we seem pretty sure aren't available at least to our "insiders." There was the purely speculative piece in MLB.com in the MAD Magazine style of "Trades We'd Like to See," but I would clarify that's not a rumor just an exercise.