Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Adam Frazier is Trey Mancini.

He well deserved his spot in the Top 12 position players.    Elias has reshaped that guy with similar overall value into one with more defensive value (and flipped 600 PA from right to left).

 

Is this supposed to justify a poor move?

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Slight Upward Arc said:

Why keep prospects around who can’t play their positions? Farm rankings? Sell high, buy low. They have the buy low thing down. 

It’s the same thing with the SP. Are you banking on all these guys to perform right away and stay healthy? Using that logic they shouldn’t add an arm either. 

[interloper]

I'm coming around to this signing. I'm too tired to explain why and get yelled at on here though. Lol. 

TLDR; his versatility means he shouldn't block anyone too much and his high contact/low K profile is refreshingly opposite of Odor. I still see room for Westburg and maybe even Vavra on this roster after thinking about it a bit. I think part of this is hedging bets on whether or not Mateo can repeat, or possibly sitting him against tough righties, with Gunnar moving to SS and Frazier playing either 2B or 3B.  

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Is this supposed to justify a poor move?

If Elias, Hyde, and Co. deemed that we needed an MLB 2nd Basemen, then who were the other options?

I’ve seen no one compare Frazier to the other FA 2nd baseman. Everyone is just saying 8 million was too much. 

[eddie83]

So in 2024 the Orioles lineup will have 

 

Gunnar

Adley 

Mountcastle

Ortiz

Westburg 

Cowser

Stowers

Norby 

Maybe they can be nice and keep Mullins.  
 

Apparently all these guys will work out and Elias should never add no one to the roster who could take any at bats away.  

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by eddie83

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm coming around to this signing. I'm too tired to explain why and get yelled at on here though. Lol. 

TLDR; his versatility means he shouldn't block anyone too much and his high contact/low K profile is refreshingly opposite of Odor. I still see room for Westburg and maybe even Vavra on this roster after thinking about it a bit. I think part of this is hedging bets on whether or not Mateo can repeat, or possibly sitting him against tough righties, with Gunnar moving to SS and Frazier playing either 2B or 3B.  

It’s pretty simple. Elias felt we needed a MLB level defender/starter for 2nd base. The no shift has something to do with it too.

[eddie83]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s pretty simple. Elias felt we needed a MLB level defender/starter for 2nd base. The no shift has something to do with it too.

Frazier is the Gibson of the lineup. 
 

Westburg, Stowers and Vavra are the Kremer/Bradish/Wells of the rotation. 

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, RZNJ said:

He just turned 31 yesterday but I agree that he’ll be 32 someday.   I’ll agree that last year was not good.  He’s had a pretty decent career up to that point.  If he produces like last year it’s poor allocation of 8M.  If he can play multiple positions like his stats suggest, and put up 2 WAR or better, not so bad.  If he can do that without blocking Westburg or Ortiz I’d call that a win.

Again, I’m not crazy about it.   But I think the negative stuff is way over the top.

"Negative stuff" is called reality. Could he be better in 2023 then 2022, sure. Getting better as he gets into his early 30s with declining EVs and Barrell % to 2nd and 3rd percentile levels makes it less likely. In addition, the only position that he plays well (I've already posted his outfield jump numbers and 36th percentile spring speed numbers) is a position that this team already had strength in numbers at for 2023.

If you're ok playing over Stowers for those additional PAs you talk about, God bless you, I'm not. 

This signing was unnecessary and potentially blocks actual prospects (Westburg and Ortiz) from playing 2B while also making Urias positionless.

Now could trades be coming that make this make more sense, perhaps, but I still don't see why or how he was worth $8 million. 

I hope he does well and makes me eat my words because I'd rather the Orioles do well then be right, but this move in a vacuum is terrible and makes me question Elias' ability to add good players to his home grown players in order to be a truly contending team.

 

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, RZNJ said:

There’s also a lot of wild inaccuracies.  I hate to see that go unchecked.   Tony just said Frazier hadn’t been good for a few years.  That’s just plain wrong whether you hate the signing or not.

As @DrinkinWithFermi pointed out, he's had one good half a season the last three. So before you start throwing arrows, get your facts straight. You've corrected me on one thing that you were right about, that he just turned 31 vs played at 31 this year. 

It's hilarious that you think "when everyone thinks one way" you try to dig to see if they are all wrong. Have you ever considered if 90% feel a certain way that there very well be a reason for that?

No, you think you are smarter than everyone, just like you think Elias is smarter than every other GM out there and can not make mistakes.

You love every prospects, you love every move, and you attack anyone who disagrees with your rosey, pollyanna outlook on everything.

So take your arrows and put them away when you think you want to aim them at me, because I've backed up every single thing I've said with statcast information that backs up my concerns over this move.

[sportsfan8703]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2nd-base/available/
 

Slim pickings at 2nd base this year in FA. If the FO thought we needed a 2nd baseman then Frazier was the best of the bunch. 

[Ripken]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2nd-base/available/
 

Slim pickings at 2nd base this year in FA. If the FO thought we needed a 2nd baseman then Frazier was the best of the bunch. 

They didn't need a 2B.  He was so desperate for a veteran LH bat that he signed a bad one.  

[Number5]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

The Orioles have much more that they could spend (look at the small market Padres for example)

San Diego is the 8th largest city in the United States, and is growing.  Baltimore ranks 30th and is decreasing.  San Diego is not one of the 14 teams that receives competitive balance picks annually.  Baltimore is.  MLB does not consider San Diego to be a small market.  San Diego also enjoys a comparatively large unopposed market geographically.  San Diego is some 120 miles away from the nearest MLB competition.  Baltimore is 38 miles away from one team to the southwest and 99 miles from another to the northeast.  Additionally, San Diego's owner is reportedly spending his own money.  Not really the best of comparisons, IMO.  Perhaps Milwaukee and Kansas City might be more appropriate cities to compare to Baltimore for this purpose.

Having said all that, there seems to be little doubt that the Orioles should be able to spend considerably more on payroll than they are.

[Yardball85]

36 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

So in 2024 the Orioles lineup will have 

 

Gunnar

Adley 

Mountcastle

Ortiz

Westburg 

Cowser

Stowers

Norby 

Maybe they can be nice and keep Mullins.  
 

Apparently all these guys will work out and Elias should never add no one to the roster who could take any at bats away.  

 

No, they should be using their limited resources to add BETTER PLAYERS at positions of need (i.e. SP (Eovaldi/Bassitt) and DH (Brantley)).  At least for me, it's much more about poor resource allocation.

[Yardball85]

12 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2nd-base/available/
 

Slim pickings at 2nd base this year in FA. If the FO thought we needed a 2nd baseman then Frazier was the best of the bunch. 

Why waste the $8M though?  Just put Urias at second and invest the $8M on a better more useful player.  

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Frazier was pretty good earlier in his career but he has really only had one good half season in the last three years.

2020: .230/.297/.364

2021 pre-trade: .324/.388/.448

2021 post-trade: .267/.327/.335

2022: .238/.301/.311

That said, maybe they see something that they believe they can fix to get him back on track.

Not surprisingly, his speed has fallen with this decline going from 58.2 percentile in 2020 to 36.3 percentile last year. He's 4.4 to 1B now which put him as a 30 runner.

He's always been a low EV guy who slaps the ball around the field but now he's slow on top of it. 

He can't hit lefties (.210/.286/.290/.576 in 155 PAs last year) so he's a platoon option at  best. 

So let's recap for those who think he just had a bad year and will rebound:

EV: 2nd percentile
Barrel %: 3rd percentile
Hard hit%: 2nd percentile
Speed: 30 runner with 36.6 percentile sprint speed
Outfield jump: -2.5 per/sec avg
Feet covered: 31.7 ft/sec (If qualified he would have ranked 90th best in baseball with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Yadiel Hernandez

Positives:
He does K much, plays a good defensive 2B

They paid $8 million to a slow, slap-hitting, platoon 2B who is 31 years old.

Meanwhile the Yankees added another TOR to their team. 

The Orioles have tread water at best this offseason while the rest of their competition in the AL East has gotten better. Even with trades I don't see how paying Frazier that kind of money makes any sense and probably now limits what contracts they can bring on.

I would have been fine with Westburg or Ortiz making major league minimum to start the year at 2b and used that money to go after pitching through trades.