Mixed feelings about the offseason thus far

[El Gordo]

Well, if that's what it takes, it's sayonara. He'll be in pinstripes.

I'd probably be willing to pay Roberts a bit more than I'd pay some other 2B who was the exact same age with the same stats, because he's a known quantity who is well-loved by the fans and a good guy. But not 4/$48 in this environment.

I'd say 3/30 with a club option for a 4th would be as high as I would go.

[Mackus]

I'd say 3/30 with a club option for a 4th would be as high as I would go.

Are we talking about extensions or tearing up his contract and starting with 2009 as the first year?

I'd be willing to extend him through 2012. Longer than that and I get apprehensive. Somewhere in the $10M a year range is certainly fair.

[El Gordo]

Are we talking about extensions or tearing up his contract and starting with 2009 as the first year?

I'd be willing to extend him through 2012. Longer than that and I get apprehensive. Somewhere in the $10M a year range is certainly fair.

'10, '11 and '12, with a club option for '13. Say a 2mm buyout. So $32M.

[Sports Guy]

Paying 30 million for a player that is very likely to be below average over the course of 3 years is such a terrible way of allocating funds.

[Sports Guy]

I agree. The problem is I don't think he is very likely to be below avg over the course of those 3 years (2010-2012). I think the odds of that happening are much lower than you do and I see nobody behind him in the minors.

Trade or draft someone.

You are talking about signing him from ages 32-34.

His range already seems like it has diminished some, so I feel his defense will really be slipping by 2011.

How much speed will he lose? If he starts losing just a little bit, then all of a sudden he starts stealing bases at a clip that is more harmful than good...ie he gets caught too often.

Offense is the key...He has posted about an 820ish OPS the last 2 years. How high is that going to stay?

I expect him to be an above average second baseman in 2009, maybe even hot enough early on to be an AS....I expect him to end the season with an OPS around 790, give or take 15 points.

Then I expect him to be league average or so in 2010(again, talking all around here)....But by 2011, I expecting him to be below average.

To me, the only defensible extension would be to tear up his 2009 contract and give him a new 3 year deal....Offer him a raise up to 10-11 million in 2009 and then pay that amount in 2010 and 2011...I think that is a deal where you end up either getting your money's worth or at least close to it.

[ugen64]

Trade or draft someone.

You are talking about signing him from ages 32-34.

His range already seems like it has diminished some, so I feel his defense will really be slipping by 2011.

How much speed will he lose? If he starts losing just a little bit, then all of a sudden he starts stealing bases at a clip that is more harmful than good...ie he gets caught too often.

Offense is the key...He has posted about an 820ish OPS the last 2 years. How high is that going to stay?

I expect him to be an above average second baseman in 2009, maybe even hot enough early on to be an AS....I expect him to end the season with an OPS around 790, give or take 15 points.

Then I expect him to be league average or so in 2010(again, talking all around here)....But by 2011, I expecting him to be below average.

To me, the only defensible extension would be to tear up his 2009 contract and give him a new 3 year deal....Offer him a raise up to 10-11 million in 2009 and then pay that amount in 2010 and 2011...I think that is a deal where you end up either getting your money's worth or at least close to it.

Roberts is a naturally pretty athletic guy, and in addition he doesn't rely that much on his speed, compared to guys like Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo (mainly because he possesses some gap power and line drive ability, in addition to his speed). Also, players generally peak defensively at age 24 or so - so in theory, Roberts has been steadily declining as a second baseman for like 6 years. Obviously he's been an above average 2B for most of those 6 years, and only last season did he possibly go below average - it's been a slow decline (again, because of his athleticism). I personally think Roberts will be worth closer to $15 million a year than $10 million a year for the next 3 years, so an offer of about $10 million a year is fair because you normally "discount" players for signing long term deals (due to the security for the player and the risk for the team).

[Sports Guy]

Roberts is a naturally pretty athletic guy, and in addition he doesn't rely that much on his speed, compared to guys like Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo (mainly because he possesses some gap power and line drive ability, in addition to his speed). Also, players generally peak defensively at age 24 or so - so in theory, Roberts has been steadily declining as a second baseman for like 6 years. Obviously he's been an above average 2B for most of those 6 years, and only last season did he possibly go below average - it's been a slow decline (again, because of his athleticism). I personally think Roberts will be worth closer to $15 million a year than $10 million a year for the next 3 years, so an offer of about $10 million a year is fair because you normally "discount" players for signing long term deals (due to the security for the player and the risk for the team).

Wow..That's insane...Of course, I guess if you think 2009 will look like 2008, that would be 20 of that 45 million...But still, 25 million over the following 2 years?

And of course, the extension starts in 2010, not 2009.

[Andy_Dufresne]

I'm disappointed the Orioles didn't see fit to sign Ivan Rodriguez to be a tutor for Matt Wieters. IRod is a Hall of Famer and one of the most repsected catchers in baseball (by other players).

Zaun is an excellent backup, but he's never been consistently a starter and he's certainly not the caliber of player that IRod is/was.

Wieters is the single most important player in the franchise and the failure to provide him with the best coaching and tutoring is sad, the cheap way out(Zaun) in the short run, may have larger costs over time.

[Andy_Dufresne]

Trade or draft someone.

You are talking about signing him from ages 32-34.

His range already seems like it has diminished some, so I feel his defense will really be slipping by 2011.

How much speed will he lose? If he starts losing just a little bit, then all of a sudden he starts stealing bases at a clip that is more harmful than good...ie he gets caught too often.

Offense is the key...He has posted about an 820ish OPS the last 2 years. How high is that going to stay?

I expect him to be an above average second baseman in 2009, maybe even hot enough early on to be an AS....I expect him to end the season with an OPS around 790, give or take 15 points.

Then I expect him to be league average or so in 2010(again, talking all around here)....But by 2011, I expecting him to be below average.

To me, the only defensible extension would be to tear up his 2009 contract and give him a new 3 year deal....Offer him a raise up to 10-11 million in 2009 and then pay that amount in 2010 and 2011...I think that is a deal where you end up either getting your money's worth or at least close to it.

I'm not sure whether I agree with your assessment of Roberts but I think the Orioles feel he's as good as he's going to get and probably his best years are behind him. The O's will have used up his prime when he was under their total control and don't mind losing him to free agency or as a July trade. The failure to sign him, long term, certainly indicates the Orioles would rather pay him less and lose him than lock him up, otherwise he would have been offered a fair long term contract 2 years ago.

If the Orioles upper management do not feel they will contend for a pennant in 11, I beleive they have no incentive to pay him his full worth, obviously.

If the Orioles upper management feel they can lose with him, then why pay him?

[Sports Guy]

I'm disappointed the Orioles didn't see fit to sign Ivan Rodriguez to be a tutor for Matt Wieters. IRod is a Hall of Famer and one of the most repsected catchers in baseball (by other players).

Zaun is an excellent backup, but he's never been consistently a starter and he's certainly not the caliber of player that IRod is/was.

Wieters is the single most important player in the franchise and the failure to provide him with the best coaching and tutoring is sad, the cheap way out(Zaun) in the short run, may have larger costs over time.

Who says IROD was willing to take on the "mentor role"?

[Andy_Dufresne]

Who says IROD was willing to take on the "mentor role"?

Because that's the kind of guy is supposed to be. He's a littel younger than Zaun, and a 2 year contract to IRod allows the Orioles the luxury of letting Wieters catch AAA for a little while.

If the Orioles are smart, a HUGE IF, they would let him work with the young pitchers in AAA, so they can all get acclimated together.

Let Wieters work with Tillman, Albers, Patton, MAtusz next year at AAA. and have IRod to help work him into the majors in August.

[crawdad]

I'm disappointed the Orioles didn't see fit to sign Ivan Rodriguez to be a tutor for Matt Wieters. IRod is a Hall of Famer and one of the most repsected catchers in baseball (by other players).

Zaun is an excellent backup, but he's never been consistently a starter and he's certainly not the caliber of player that IRod is/was.

Wieters is the single most important player in the franchise and the failure to provide him with the best coaching and tutoring is sad, the cheap way out(Zaun) in the short run, may have larger costs over time.

Um, the best coaches are not hall of fame players. There is a disconnect there. Nothing about Irod or his history suggests that he would be a good coach. You are going out on an awfully thin limb stating this with such conviction. With respect to how well they play now, Zaun and Irod are pretty similar in worth. Yeah, watch Irod . . . he is not a good ball player anymore. Neither is Zaun. Zaun can take a pitch and has shown a willingness to step aside when a better player comes around. Those are two things that are good to have in an older catcher and two things Irod lacks.

[33rdst]

Like most people here I would have liked to have gotten Teixeira. However, I don't think he was ever part of Macphails's plan. He fell into the catagory of, "that would have been nice".

I'm pleased with what MacPhail has done in spite of the limitations he's facing. He has accomplished most of what he said he wants to accomplish with regard to starting pitching, short stop and catching. I'd like to see him pick up one more starter but I can live with it if he doesn't. I'd like to see him get another hitter. I don't think it will be Dunn because of his defensive limitations. Wigginton on a one year contract with an option works for me because he provides the flexability they're looking for defensivily and, if used properly, he can be very productive at the plate. If Salazar were younger and better defensivily I'd give him the nod but he hasn't done it at the major league level as has Wigginton.

Signing Markakis long term is a must though.

[Eight]

Paying 30 million for a player that is very likely to be below average over the course of 3 years is such a terrible way of allocating funds.

Roberts has been a five-win player the past two seasons. He was worth six wins and three wins in 2005 and 2006. An average player is worth about two wins in a season, or about eight wins for four years. There is no way a reasonable projection for Roberts has him as worth less than that for 2009-2012.

We can debate whether or not the Orioles should commit to Roberts in the long-term, but to say that signing a top 3 2B to a well below market value deal is a "terrible" thing to do is not based in any reality.

[Sports Guy]

Roberts has been a five-win player the past two seasons. He was worth six wins and three wins in 2005 and 2006. An average player is worth about two wins in a season, or about eight wins for four years. There is no way a reasonable projection for Roberts has him as worth less than that for 2009-2012.

We can debate whether or not the Orioles should commit to Roberts in the long-term, but to say that signing a top 3 2B to a well below market value deal is a "terrible" thing to do is not based in any reality.

Too bad we aren't signing BRob for the past years...We are signing him for years 32-34 or maybe even 35.