Sarris: Top 10 breakout pitchers

[Sports Guy]

This has a fantasy baseball spin to it but…

 

Kyle Bradish, Orioles (3.64 ppERA, 24.1% ppK%)

It’s a really really good slider. Bradish threw that thing over 500 times last year and gave up a .208 batting average with nine extra base hits on the pitch. Late last year, the advice here for Bradish wasto “establish off the slider, throw the curve to change velocities, and then try to finish guys” with the fastball and it looks like Bradish did just that. In August and September he de-emphasized the cutter (a four-seam to Pitching+), and used the breaking pitches more.

Also good news is that the sinker Stuff+ (113) is better than the 4-seam (100), so he really optimized his mix better in the second half according to the model. He finished August and September with 60+ innings of low-threes ERA despite a drop in strikeout rate, largely due to the best ground ball rates of his career. That has some implications for his strikeout rate, which wasn’t amazing, and isn’t projected to be a huge positive, but that could be the way Bradish avoids the rest of his projected line. Standard projections see a mid-fours ERA for Bradish, while ours think that’s almost a run too high.

As long as you take Bradish at a point in the draft where you don’t need to start him every time out — so you can avoid some tough matchups in the division — he should be a good addition to the back of your pitching staff all season long. And the deeper the league gets, the more you don’t care if he puts up a few stinkers in your lineup.

 

[Chelsea_Phil]

God I hate fantasy baseball and football. 

[Moose Milligan]

That’s optimistic for Bradish but the philosophy of the pitch mix makes sense. It’s been discussed on here a lot, but if they can figure how to get some movement on the fastball, that’d help. 
 

But that’s kind of what worries me about the mix. He’s essentially pitching backwards, it looks like. Leading with the slider, moving to the curve and I’m assuming the sinker before the fastball. But the league adjusts, and the fastball isn’t good, so if he’s trying to put away batters with it, they can still sit on it. 
 

I think it’ll be tricky for him to avoid throwing his fastball but if the slider/curve/sinker are that good it might not matter. 

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

God I hate fantasy baseball and football. 

I do, too. That said, it’s good to see Bradish get a nice writeup. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I do, too. That said, it’s good to see Bradish get a nice writeup. 

The write-up really applies regardless of fantasy applications.  

[Chelsea_Phil]

To me it shows the gooberness (is that a word?) of fantasy people.  Total NERDS!

[emmett16]

Bradish might be the make-or-break guy this year.  He could come out an dominate and be a solid #3 even #2 or he could fall on his face and not finish the year in the rotation. 

[Spy Fox]

43 minutes ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

To me it shows the gooberness (is that a word?) of fantasy people.  Total NERDS!

I'd never want my pitchers in the real world to focus on that nerdy stuff like "which of my pitches are good."

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Bradish might be the make-or-break guy this year.  He could come out a dominate and be a solid #3 even #2 or he could fall on his face and not finish the year in the rotation. 

 I don’t think he falls on his face but it’s definitely possible he doesn’t end up being one of the 5 best starters and goes to the pen.

I don’t expect that to happen but it’s possible.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

To me it shows the gooberness (is that a word?) of fantasy people.  Total NERDS!

Any chance you were an Alpha Beta at Adams College in the early 80s? 

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

To me it shows the gooberness (is that a word?) of fantasy people.  Total NERDS!

Naw, all the cool kids like fantasy sports now that it's turned into gambling.

[joelala]

2 hours ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

To me it shows the gooberness (is that a word?) of fantasy people.  Total NERDS!

Not much difference between the analyses “fantasy people” run and those that real ML scouting departments run,  I’d imagine.  How do you feel about the Orioles front office. 

For me, fantasy is a great incentive to stay current and informed on the entire baseball world and to watch more games than just Oriole games. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, joelala said:

Not much difference between the analyses “fantasy people” run and those that real ML scouting departments run,  I’d imagine.  How do you feel about the Orioles front office. 

For me, fantasy is a great incentive to stay current and informed on the entire baseball world and to watch more games than just Oriole games. 

There is stuff that is important in actual baseball that isn't in fantasy.

Defense for instance.

[Just Regular]

Drellich's intro to his Luhnow character in the new book is basically he was a fantasy baseball geek / COO type.    He got some quotes from his CEO (i.e., charismatic person) colleague in the pre-baseball days about how it was all Luhnow wanted to talk about.

A McKinsey colleague married a daughter of the Cardinals ownership group, it was a foot in the door, Sig was in his wedding, then came Elias, bada boom bada bing.

Regular plug that Sig has already been a minor character in another baseball book, Fantasyland, about the roto-life from almost 20 years back.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 hours ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

God I hate fantasy baseball and football. 

I tried fantasy baseball once and hated it. Couldn't ever truly understand the scoring system used in the league either. Fantasy football is better, but I stopped that like 6 years ago.

Felt too much like a job and there's always player injuries.