A lot of little moves = a significantly better team?

[bigbird]

Starters 3,4, and 5 still equal starters 3,4, and 5.

[33rdst]

Starters 3,4, and 5 still equal starters 3,4, and 5.

Have you heard anything further on Hinske? You seemed to be pretty sure the O's were going to sign him.

[Mike B]

There is no move the Orioles have made this offseason that is dramatic. But in a slow and steady way, MacPhail has improved the team for 2009.

Izturis > Hernandez, Bynum, Cintron, Fahey, Castro as starting SS

Gomez > that same group as utility infielder

Wieters > Hernandez as starting C

Zaun > Quiroz as backup C

Freel > Payton as 4th OF

Uehara > DCab as starting P

Hendrickson > Burres as swing man

Now, I don't mean to suggest that those moves accomplish anything much for the long term, or that they vault the Orioles into contention for 2009. I don't even mean to suggest that it's likely this is now a .500 team. All I mean to suggest is that for 2009, this is a perceptibly better team than in 2008. Much better at SS, the bench, and behind the plate.

If I have reservations about this, it's mainly that MacPhail still hasn't done enough to solidify the rotation. And 1B (or DH) is still in question (though I'm willing to ride with Salazar). But even so, I think the 2009 team has fewer glaring holes than in 2008.

I think it is a healthy way to look at it. I still do not think they are done.

I think you could very well see a Wiggington > Millar and a Garland, Wolf, Looper > greater than our last years third starter.

In addition I think our BP could be real solid in 2009. Ray, Sherrill, Johnson, Sarfate, Albers, Penn etc could make for a real strong pen.

There are two areas that really concern me. The first is we lose Mora, Huff, Roberts and guys like Baez, and Walker in 2010. You have to be concerned if we will be willing or able to bring in quality replacements. I think the economy and the slow off season has hampered the trade market big time.

[TonySoprano]

There is no move the Orioles have made this offseason that is dramatic. But in a slow and steady way, MacPhail has improved the team for 2009.

Izturis > Hernandez, Bynum, Cintron, Fahey, Castro as starting SS

Gomez > that same group as utility infielder

Wieters > Hernandez as starting C

Zaun > Quiroz as backup C

Freel > Payton as 4th OF

Uehara > DCab as starting P

Hendrickson > Burres as swing man

Now, I don't mean to suggest that those moves accomplish anything much for the long term, or that they vault the Orioles into contention for 2009. I don't even mean to suggest that it's likely this is now a .500 team. All I mean to suggest is that for 2009, this is a perceptibly better team than in 2008. Much better at SS, the bench, and behind the plate.

If I have reservations about this, it's mainly that MacPhail still hasn't done enough to solidify the rotation. And 1B (or DH) is still in question (though I'm willing to ride with Salazar). But even so, I think the 2009 team has fewer glaring holes than in 2008.

You're giving him credit for Wieters when it was Flanagan that drafted him and Angelos that got him signed? Show me MacPhail's starting rotation 1-5 and then we'll see if the team is improved, let alone significantly.

[Hank Scorpio]

Starters 3,4, and 5 still equal starters 3,4, and 5.

This is true, but starters 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 EXIST this year.

[JBugaboo]

I agree with Hank; to go a step further we should pay as much attention to our farm system as we do the major league club. And the farm system is rapidly improving.

[NCRaven]

With the exception of starting pitching, I think that MacPhail has built a much better roster this season. We have a real shortstop, first and foremost. That situation was a real drag on the team and got worse as the season wore on. Once Wieters arrives, I think Zaun is a much more solid option as the backup catcher and should be reasonably effective for a few months as a starter. Freel is a solid addition, much more versatile (and likeable - it's not the most important think, but it doesn't hurt ) than Payton. Gomez provides a solid and versatile infield backup.

The return of Ray and Baez and Sarfate's recovery from a broken collarbone (?) should have very positive impacts on the bullpen and I have no doubt that Hendrickson will be better in the pen than Burress (who was dreadful in relief).

Of course, that still leaves Guthrie, Uehara and a bunch of question marks. The real question is whether guys like Penn, Olson and Liz can match their minor league performances or Hennessey or Waters can be suitable back of the rotations for a season until the next wave young pitching arrives. And, finally, will any of the prospects (Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen, Matusz seem to be the most advanced) get a shot at some point during the season? As always, the starting pitching is likely to make or break this season.

[Frobby]

I'm excited by the Uehara signing. It might be the signing I'm most excited about, regardless of how it turns out. But let's face it; we don't know how it will turn out. We really have no idea whether Uehara will be greater than Cabrera or not.

Most notably, Cabrera pitched 384 innings over the past two years and will be 28 in May. Uehara pitched 151 'major league' innings over the past two years and will be 34 in April.

I'm still leaning toward arguing that the one mistake was non-tendering Cabrera. That said, I can make an argument that it was the right decision, and there is not much sign that it was a major mistake that will impact the long-term future.

Good post. I agree we don't know for sure that Uehara > DCab. However, I strongly suspect he will be. One thing's for sure - he won't walk as many guys!

I was not in favor of non-tendering DCab, unless the O's thought he had a serious arm problem that led to his loss of velocity in the 2nd half of the year. From his recent start in the Domincan playoffs it appears he's healthy.

[Frobby]

You're giving him credit for Wieters when it was Flanagan that drafted him and Angelos that got him signed? Show me MacPhail's starting rotation 1-5 and then we'll see if the team is improved, let alone significantly.

I didn't start this thread to give "credit" to MacPhail, just to analyze the state of the team.

[Sports Guy]

This is pretty much the same thread I started the other day...The moves we have made have been good...Nothing that will hurt us...No bad contracts...Some undervalued guys as well it seems.

We should be better in 2009 than 2008 but of course we have felt that almost every year the last several years and usually, we have been wrong, at least in terms of results.

So, I think predicting anything about this team is really worthless at this point.

Ultimately, what really matters is the long term and AM has done zippy to help that out.

[bigbird]

This is true, but starters 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 EXIST this year.

And which one of these are you counting on????

[NJOriolesFan]

I'm still frustrated that based on the market and that we got absolutely nothing for him, that we did not bring Cabrera back for $2.6 million. We got nobody in trade or no draft pick compensation. He only cost $1 million more than Hendrickson. For years we wondered if Cabrera could be a dominant closer or set up guy. Based on the fact that only Guthrie is a "certainty" and Uehera and Olson are unknowns somewhat and 4 and 5 may end up being Hendrickson and/or Baez, why did we not keep Cabrera?

Even if we trade Olson for Pie, sign Ben Sheets and trade for Rich Hill and even say sign Oliver Perez, all of which are unlikely, there still would have been room in the bullpen for Cabrera over Hendrickson. So why did we do it?

[33rdst]

With the exception of starting pitching, I think that MacPhail has built a much better roster this season. We have a real shortstop, first and foremost. That situation was a real drag on the team and got worse as the season wore on. Once Wieters arrives, I think Zaun is a much more solid option as the backup catcher and should be reasonably effective for a few months as a starter. Freel is a solid addition, much more versatile (and likeable - it's not the most important think, but it doesn't hurt ) than Payton. Gomez provides a solid and versatile infield backup.

The return of Ray and Baez and Sarfate's recovery from a broken collarbone (?) should have very positive impacts on the bullpen and I have no doubt that Hendrickson will be better in the pen than Burress (who was dreadful in relief).

Of course, that still leaves Guthrie, Uehara and a bunch of question marks. The real question is whether guys like Penn, Olson and Liz can match their minor league performances or Hennessey or Waters can be suitable back of the rotations for a season until the next wave young pitching arrives. And, finally, will any of the prospects (Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen, Matusz seem to be the most advanced) get a shot at some point during the season? As always, the starting pitching is likely to make or break this season.

This is a very important point. With the emergence of Wieters and the signing of Zaun I think our rotation will really improve. I just think Hernandez was that bad. With Zaun's and Wieter's support I look for significant improvements in both Liz and Olsen. I also think that there will be one or two surprises from among the hoards of pitchers we're bringing to camp. I wouldn't be surprised if Tillman pushed his way on to the rotation.

[Hank Scorpio]

And which one of these are you counting on????

You can't count on any one of them, that's why you line up a dozen of them.

You count on the next man up.

[SrMeowMeow]

I agree completely with Frobby's original post, and I think we might be close to having a team that is a little luck away from a winning season.

However, for that to happen, we really, really need another starter. Maybe Ben Sheets is too risky/expensive, but if we can get Garland or Wolf for one year I think it's a necessary move.

We might still lose 100 games with these incremental improvements and another starter, but put a decent team on the field and you have a chance for a surprise winning season; if you always play the bare minimum of talent during a rebuild you have no chance for that, and career seasons by individual players are meaningless.