BP's 2023 AL Starting Pitching Prospects

[Pickles]

Baseball Prospectus wrote up AL Starting Pitching Prospects in terms of fantasy value for the 2023 season.  Fantasy isn't real life, of course, but it provides some interesting insight. I provide the relevant quotes about Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall.  Short take: They are extremely bullish on Rodriguez and bearish on Hall.

You are a reasonable fantasy manager with reasonable expectations for Grayson Rodriguez. However, he is going to be much better than that. Apart from Spencer Strider, he is going to be what you hoped every new rookie pitcher would be since Noah Syndergaard. He has a big, strong frame with 80-grade heat and a wipeout slider with a plus changeup. Over time, he’ll likely abandon the curve because why bother with an average pitch when there are three advanced pitches? The bugaboo is his injury history, which has dampened Rodriguez’s potential. However, he has managed to pitch between 75-100 innings in the last two years. Even as a rookie, he’ll have the chance to pitch 130 premium innings this year, a healthy increase from the 93 innings PECOTA predicts for 2023. Assuming this, Rodriguez’s 10.87 K/9 (among the top 10 in the MLB) equates to about 155 strikeouts with a top-20 ERA at 2.98. This places him as a mid-tier SP2, in line with Cristian Javier (18th SP off the board in NFBC). Click the buy button.

You are a reasonable fantasy manager with reasonable expectations for DL Hall. Unfortunately, I am here to tell you that he will not meet them. Maybe not by much, but he won’t. There are fantastical notions floating in the minds of the mad that DL Hall can still figure it out as a starter. If you are one of these delusional types, consider that when you’ve been a prospect for as long as Hall has been, multiple data points lead to a different reality. Elbow tendonitis can be brushed aside. Which pitcher on our roster hasn’t had, doesn’t have, or won’t have an injury? The issue is his control. In Triple-A last year, Hall’s 21.9% K-BB ratio was good enough for the 13th-best among those with a minimum of 50 innings, demonstrating his electric offerings, which stifled hitters and sent them back to the dugout a league-leading 36.1% of the time. However, his 14.2% walk rate was among the worst 13. In redraft leagues, there’s nothing to see here for now. In the best-case scenario this year, he’s a closer, but he’s buried behind three other names in the bullpen and is likely to start in Triple-A because of it. For those in dynasty/keeper leagues, he’s a fun target for rebuilding teams looking to hold a lottery ticket in the event he figures it out and realizes his SP3 potential.

[Just Regular]

Hall in the bullpen or not March 30th is a good litmus test for me how serious Elias is about competing.

Just like some of my optimism for 5th starter Grayson is taking Adley seriously and that team needs him now more than when Means is healed and trade reinforcements possible, ibid for DL Hall, Dillon Tate and Felix Bautista.

If we're gonna be 6th best in the league, it isn't going to be by a lot - no messing around.

The Club probably has better cover to demote him two months and gain the 7th year if he can't even hack it in a length pitcher relief role like Wells and Voth in April.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Hall in the bullpen or not March 30th is a good litmus test for me how serious Elias is about competing.

Just like some of my optimism for 5th starter Grayson is taking Adley seriously and that team needs him now more than when Means is healed and trade reinforcements possible, ibid for DL Hall, Dillon Tate and Felix Bautista.

If we're gonna be 6th best in the league, it isn't going to be by a lot - no messing around.

The Club probably has better cover to demote him two months and gain the 7th year if he can't even hack it in a length pitcher relief role like Wells and Voth in April.

I don't think Hall is necessarily an upgrade to the pen.  Personally, I'd probably prefer he start in AAA than be in the O's bullpen, at least to start the season.  Circumstances could change that over the next three weeks.

[Moose Milligan]

Those aren't absurd takes.

I will say that the Hall prediction kind of takes away any notion that coaching can help the guy out, but someone writing a fantasy rag can't talk about that.

I do think Hall will get his shot at starting at some point this year and I hope he takes advantage of it.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Those aren't absurd takes.

I will say that the Hall prediction kind of takes away any notion that coaching can help the guy out, but someone writing a fantasy rag can't talk about that.

I do think Hall will get his shot at starting at some point this year and I hope he takes advantage of it.

I can see that as being a reasonable take for this season but not going forward.

The writing was on the wall for Hall starting the season in the rotation when they made an issue of his minor injury.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I can see that as being a reasonable take for this season but not going forward.

The writing was on the wall for Hall starting the season in the rotation when they made an issue of his minor injury.

Is this a conspiracy theory in which Hall could have been pitching in games and accumulating the same innings as the other starters by now?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Is this a conspiracy theory in which Hall could have been pitching in games and accumulating the same innings as the other starters by now?

No, it's a statement of fact that the approach the team takes with pitcher ailments would lead to him not having progressed enough to assume a spot in the starting rotation.

But hey, thanks for letting me know you are still oddly obsessive with my posts.  I was getting worried you'd moved on.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I can see that as being a reasonable take for this season but not going forward.

The writing was on the wall for Hall starting the season in the rotation when they made an issue of his minor injury.

Well I think Hall has to get his control under...control...this year or his future is going to look pretty Rocky Coppinger.

Maybe not get all his bugaboos ironed out but take some significant strides in the right direction.  It's not make or break for him...yet.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well I think Hall has to get his control under...control...this year or his future is going to look pretty Rocky Coppinger.

Maybe not get all his bugaboos ironed out but take some significant strides in the right direction.  It's not make or break for him...yet.

[Just Regular]

Here's one thing that's started to settle for me about DL Hall.     Mike Elias has had him his entire 4.5 years.    He doesn't know what Forrest Whitley is anymore, or precisely what the Marlins Arms are that would be enough to pry Cedric Mullins away from him, but DL Hall...he knows.

Psychobabble mode these young studs all seem fond of each other....let them go.     I have a pretty strong guess what Adley Rutschman's roster decision would be, except for the fact he rigorously focuses on the controllables.   Adley does in fact control what kind of baseball legacy he wants to create for himself, and where he'll spend most of it.

I don't believe there is much delta in DL Hall's 2024 or 2030 based on whether by Memorial Day he's thrown ten 75-pitch outings for Norfolk, or fifteen 50-pitch outings for Baltimore.     I will be cranky if Justin Turner or Marcus Semien rock Nick Vespi or Spenser Watkins on the opening roadtrip.     DL Hall like Ryan Mountcastle we well might not even tender Arb3, so why sweat a 7th year you may not want anyway?

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Here's one thing that's started to settle for me about DL Hall.     Mike Elias has had him his entire 4.5 years.    He doesn't know what Forrest Whitley is anymore, or precisely what the Marlins Arms are that would be enough to pry Cedric Mullins away from him, but DL Hall...he knows.

Psychobabble mode these young studs all seem fond of each other....let them go.     I have a pretty strong guess what Adley Rutschman's roster decision would be, except for the fact he rigorously focuses on the controllables.   Adley does in fact control what kind of baseball legacy he wants to create for himself, and where he'll spend most of it.

I don't believe there is much delta in DL Hall's 2024 or 2030 based on whether by Memorial Day he's thrown ten 75-pitch outings for Norfolk, or fifteen 50-pitch outings for Baltimore.     I will be cranky if Justin Turner or Marcus Semien rock Nick Vespi or Spenser Watkins on the opening roadtrip.     DL Hall like Ryan Mountcastle we well might not even tender Arb3, so why sweat a 7th year you may not want anyway?

Any decision to start Hall in AAA will have nothing to do with service time.

[Pickles]

21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Those aren't absurd takes.

I will say that the Hall prediction kind of takes away any notion that coaching can help the guy out, but someone writing a fantasy rag can't talk about that.

I do think Hall will get his shot at starting at some point this year and I hope he takes advantage of it.

As someone else said, this is a take solely for 2023 fantasy value.  Hall if he's even in the bigs will be a middle reliever.  That has little fantasy value.

I think the expectation isn't that Hall can't improve his command over time, but that he's not going to do it immediately enough to be an impact ML arm this year.

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Any decision to start Hall in AAA will have nothing to do with service time.

Do you believe March 30th he might not be one of the 13 best pitchers available to the Club?

I can understand if you don't.      Warts and all he's a comfortable Top 8-9 for me.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

Do you believe March 30th he might not be one of the 13 best pitchers available to the Club?

I can understand if you don't.      Warts and all he's a comfortable Top 8-9 for me.

I believe it's possible he isn't.  I also believe the decision will be made more with what is best for Hall's development, rather than based on marginally upgrading the middle relief core.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

As someone else said, this is a take solely for 2023 fantasy value.  Hall if he's even in the bigs will be a middle reliever.  That has little fantasy value.

I think the expectation isn't that Hall can't improve his command over time, but that he's not going to do it immediately enough to be an impact ML arm this year.

Sort of.  I mean, yeah, it's definitely an article for 2023 fantasy value.  And you're correct, if he's a middle reliever this year, that doesn't have a lot of value (I'm assuming this is true, I haven't played fantasy in a number of years).

In regards to improving his command over time, the writer does take a bit of a shot at him in the beginning that, to me, alludes to "you're crazy if you think this guy is EVER going to figure out his control issues":

Quote

There are fantastical notions floating in the minds of the mad that DL Hall can still figure it out as a starter. If you are one of these delusional types, consider that when you’ve been a prospect for as long as Hall has been, multiple data points lead to a different reality. Elbow tendonitis can be brushed aside. Which pitcher on our roster hasn’t had, doesn’t have, or won’t have an injury? The issue is his control. 

I took that to mean "he's had control issues for his entire career up until this point, they're most likely going to continue."  Continue this year and probably beyond.  

I'd love to see Hall come through with a hell of a season in any capacity, middle relief, back end or starter.  I think it's a bit silly for anyone to write him off that quickly despite having very real control issues.