Has Vavra played his way into a starting 2B job?

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To be clear, that has happened as of today.  Still think that?

I’m gonna edit that to “shortly there after”  

Main point is I believe that is the reason he was down there to start season and didn’t get called up last season. 
 

[Tony-OH]

35 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well .069 is pretty funny, but I’m also 12.  

I just don’t see what Vavra brings to the table. It was really fun for a week or so last year when he was an OBP machine and we actually took the lead for a playoff spot, but that time is over. David Mewhan and Howie Clark had some great starts too. 
 

I like Vavra as a person. He gave a great interview about getting diagnosed with an auto immune disorder that led to his injury history. He’s battled back from lots of injuries, but he’s just not a major leaguer. 
 

He has no arm. No athlecism. No speed. He doesn’t scare opposing pitchers. I just don’t see. I’d rather have Stevie Wilkerson or Jace Peterson on our bench. 

I don't necessarily agree with all of your statements here, but your post really fell off the rails by saying you'd rather have Stevie Wilkerson on this team than Vavra. Wilkerson hasn't played MLB since 2021 when he slashed .167/.211/.208/.419 with the Orioles and was fairly bad everywhere he played defensively. 

Vavra doesn't really have a carrying tool and it does make me wonder if there's enough OBP to overcome the other parts of his mediocre game, but he's not the worse 26th man. Now should have be making regular starts in the outfield, no really. 

He had a nice game yesterday and he's not a bad little ballplayer overall, but he's not starting material and he's not worse than Stevie Wilkerson. 

 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’m gonna edit that to “shortly there after”  

Main point is I believe that is the reason he was down there to start season and didn’t get called up last season. 
 

I don’t think so, but who knows?

I’d certainly like to see him soon. 

[tntoriole]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, I need to walk back my statement just a bit.  There has been the occasional decent player with a .069 or worse ISO.  Generally it’s reserved for top defenders at premium positions.  Myles Straw is a current example.  Career ISO of .066 but good enough to get a multi-year contract running through 2026.  But Vavra doesn’t fit that profile.  

The ss on the League and World Champions of 1969, 1970 , 1971 had an ISO of .058, 041 and .052 .. lifetime of  .054.   That guy could pick it though!! 

[jdwilde1]

The thing to remember about Vavra is that he was an extreme splits guy during his minor league career.  He has shown some pop against RHP.  He has a chance to be a valuable player in a limited role (on base skills, position flexibility), but I do not see him ever being an every-day player.  For some reason I cannot find accurate MiLB splits right now, but I put together the following last year showing just his MiLB splits against RHP.  If I recall, his career MiLB career average against LHP was around .200.

    

	Games	PA	AB	H	TB	BB	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG
v. RHP	83	246	207	65	92	34	1
	46	173	141	43	73	29	2
	98	352	291	99	153	50	0
	46	163	140	38	61	20	1
	273	934	779	245	379	133	4	0.315	0.409	0.486

Edited April 14, 2023 by jdwilde1
typo

[interloper]

Much better ABs from him yesterday. Hits the ball hard, so it's not like he's Hanser Alberto. Still should probably not be getting starts over Stowers, but he's not the worst offender on offense. That would be McKenna right now. 

[RZNJ]

As as been stated by others he can turn on the ball and has a little bit of pop.  More than he showed last year when he was in opposite field mode basically up until the last week of the season.    He looked a little unsure in RF yesterday but he made all of the plays.  

[emmett16]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think so, but who knows?

I’d certainly like to see him soon. 

He wasn’t in the lineup last night in Nashville.  One can dream  

[btdart20]

"The science that we were taught takes us but a distance towards the truth." - Dana Scully

Is it a certainty that a player HAS to show power/ISO in order to maintain a value-add OBP?  Is it 100% positive correlation?  Or could there be other variables?  

An industry thought leaders says "there’s no single definition for what it (a good hit tool) encompasses, most in the industry will lean on some combination of raw tools, contact rate, and strikeout avoidance to grade out players. This approach may risk viewing all contact as good contact, as well as overlapping with the power tool before raw strength is considered."

Smash Factor: A Data-Driven Approach to Assessing the Hit Tool (drivelinebaseball.com)

 

Here are a few current guys bucking the EV/HH% trends.  I doubt it's representative.  But they are good case studies.  And could provide some type of starting point for the ISO/OBP ratio study that require smarter minds than mine!

Adam Frazier - career .120 ISO - I actually think one reason Adam Frazier was brought in was specifically to study him more closely.  The SigBot sprung a sprocket thinking about infusing Frazier's hit tool into Basallo!

Luis Arraez - career .099 ISO.

Jeff McNeil - career .149 ISO (but his recent 3 year trend is around .110).  First 3 years was .160+. (I didn't do the math, just guessing.  Could be higher.)  It's like he was trying to fit a mold but ultimately broke it being who he is.  McNeil's approach has been studied probably because his success bucking the trend.  

Jeff McNeil, Secret Strike Zone Wizard | FanGraphs Baseball

Jeff McNeil Hit His Way to a Four-Year Extension | FanGraphs Baseball

[Billy F-Face3]

4 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

The thing to remember about Vavra is that he was an extreme splits guy during his minor league career.  He has shown some pop against RHP.  He has a chance to be a valuable player in a limited role (on base skills, position flexibility), but I do not see him ever being an every-day player.  For some reason I cannot find accurate MiLB splits right now, but I put together the following last year showing just his MiLB splits against RHP.  If I recall, his career MiLB career average against LHP was around .200.

    

	Games	PA	AB	H	TB	BB	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG
v. RHP	83	246	207	65	92	34	1
	46	173	141	43	73	29	2
	98	352	291	99	153	50	0
	46	163	140	38	61	20	1
	273	934	779	245	379	133	4	0.315	0.409	0.486

But if you look up his big league stats from 2022, his OBP vs LHP was actually higher than it was vs RHP.

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, btdart20 said:

"The science that we were taught takes us but a distance towards the truth." - Dana Scully

Is it a certainty that a player HAS to show power/ISO in order to maintain a value-add OBP?  Is it 100% positive correlation?  Or could there be other variables?  

An industry thought leaders says "there’s no single definition for what it (a good hit tool) encompasses, most in the industry will lean on some combination of raw tools, contact rate, and strikeout avoidance to grade out players. This approach may risk viewing all contact as good contact, as well as overlapping with the power tool before raw strength is considered."

Smash Factor: A Data-Driven Approach to Assessing the Hit Tool (drivelinebaseball.com)

 

Here are a few current guys bucking the EV/HH% trends.  I doubt it's representative.  But they are good case studies.  And could provide some type of starting point for the ISO/OBP ratio study that require smarter minds than mine!

Adam Frazier - career .120 ISO - I actually think one reason Adam Frazier was brought in was specifically to study him more closely.  The SigBot sprung a sprocket thinking about infusing Frazier's hit tool into Basallo!

Luis Arraez - career .099 ISO.

Jeff McNeil - career .149 ISO (but his recent 3 year trend is around .110).  First 3 years was .160+. (I didn't do the math, just guessing.  Could be higher.)  It's like he was trying to fit a mold but ultimately broke it being who he is.  McNeil's approach has been studied probably because his success bucking the trend.  

Jeff McNeil, Secret Strike Zone Wizard | FanGraphs Baseball

Jeff McNeil Hit His Way to a Four-Year Extension | FanGraphs Baseball

There actually is a tool and metric to determine a hitters ability.  It’s called smash factor.  You will be hearing a lot about this in the near future.  Imagine w/in a year or so there will be smash factor leader boards available to Public. 
 

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2021/02/smash-factor-a-data-driven-approach-to-assessing-the-hit-tool/

There is also a direct correlation between bat speed/EV & OBACON.  players with the higher  EVs & smash factors can very easily determine future production in very few ABs.  

 

No one is publishing smash factor - you can figure it out, however, with a certain amount of ABs and results and a lot of tedious work. 
 

Stowers is so intriguing because he has the bat speed & the EV.  His smash factor is not public data (unless you crunch your own numbers)
 

Players with lower EVs can have success but their high-end OBACON comes down and lowers their ceilings.  
 

it also takes a lot more ABs to determine future production from the low EV players.  They very well might be terrific hitters and succeed like an Arraez, but you can’t predict that with just a few ABs as you can with the Stowers type player.  
 

This may be why the guys like Vavra & McKenna got first dibs, because they need more ABs to see what they are.  I’m sure the Os FO knows pretty damn well what Stowers & Westburg are likely to produce.  
 

I’m going to go back into one of my course trainings to dig up some graphs, visuals and links on the above to help further explain (I’m not always good with words

Edited April 14, 2023 by emmett16

[Orioles Jim]

OBP back up to 389 now as he seems to have relearned how to get on base.

Still a putrid slugging percentage that needs to improve. 

[ChuckS]

26 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

OBP back up to 389 now as he seems to have relearned how to get on base.

Still a putrid slugging percentage that needs to improve. 

We are less than 1/10 the way through the season.

I don’t think you can (reasonably) point to any stats right now and draw many conclusions. 

[Brooks The Great]

36 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

OBP back up to 389 now as he seems to have relearned how to get on base.

Still a putrid slugging percentage that needs to improve. 

I'll take a .389 OBP from a bottom of the lineup hitter/bench utility guy all day and all season.

The Orioles lead the majors in pitches seen per at bat. I'm willing to bet that a vast majority of Orioles fans don't understand how unprecedented and important to the team's future success that is and will be if the team can come close to maintaining the amount of pitches the O's hitters see per at bat.

Vavra and his approach fit in well with this team and its new offensive philosphy. An offensive philosophy that this franchise has NEVER shown previously to this degree. Not even with the team was winning World Series several decades ago.

Edited April 15, 2023 by Brooks The Great

[Orioles Jim]

47 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

I'll take a .389 OBP from a bottom of the lineup hitter/bench utility guy all day and all season.

The Orioles lead the majors in pitches seen per at bat. I'm willing to bet that a vast majority of Orioles fans don't understand how unprecedented and important to the team's future success that is and will be if the team can come close to maintaining the amount of pitches the O's hitters see per at bat.

Vavra and his approach fit in well with this team and its new offensive philosphy. An offensive philosophy that this franchise has NEVER shown previously to this degree. Not even with the team was winning World Series several decades ago.

Agreed, I’m a Vavra fan ever since I saw him play in AA.