Gunnar Henderson 2023

[Just Regular]

Slow start for the kid who just isn't swinging much early on - 4th MLB-wide in lowest Swing rate YTD.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=5&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=5,a

Nice group of guys he's hanging around with in the Top 6 - Mookie, Trout, Yandy, Soto.

Watching I just kind of feel the data accruing - Oller, Clevinger, Kopech after the LHP Waldichuk end of the line today I think will have some good in it.

[TommyPickles]

They were talking about how he's seeing a lot more breaking balls this year and it's been a struggle.

Every one of his hits has been off a fastball.

[Tony-OH]

He's seeing the ball well and is not afraid to close pitches for balls, but he's really struggling against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. It's a strange dynamic that he seems to be able to judge the strike zone but can not connect against anything that's not a fastball. 

He's also not off to a good start defensively. Part of that could be inconsistent work, but I've always been worried that the Orioles focus on versatility in the minors would affect their minor leaguers ability to be very good in one particular position. We see the tools that Gunnar has, but even in the minors he was error prone at times. 

I think we're seeing that with most of the guys they brought up defensively and we see it in the minors. When players are playing positional roulette every game, it makes me wonder how do you expect them to be at their best when they've given up development time by playing a bunch of positions.

In my mind you need to decide where a guy is going to play at the major league level and play him there at least 80% of the time. 

I think he's going to get a pretty long leash, but if he's still struggling by May, I could see them sending him back to AAA for more development. 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

They were talking about how he's seeing a lot more breaking balls this year and it's been a struggle.

Every one of his hits has been off a fastball.

He's only seen 1.9% less fastballs this season so it's not a significant amount of difference from last year. He's actually seen less breaking balls but more changeups. And as you stated, he's 0-for-17 with 11 strikeouts on those pitches so far.

[glenn__davis]

I was a bit bearish on him for this season.  Anytime you see a guy make a huge leap as he did last year you want to see him sustain it the following season.  I think he'll be a very good player but I expected some serious growing pains for him this year.  I think you'll see him improve slowly but steadily as the year moves on.

[ShoelesJoe]

Henderson might have the best "eye" on the club. Also, it appears that so far umps are giving him the benefit of the doubt on a lot of borderline pitches. Maybe that's just random chance or SSS, but it just may be that in the 40+ games he's played up to now Gunnar has acquired the reputation where if he didn't swing at it then it must not have been a strike. 

[Moose Milligan]

Love the patience at the plate.  It's easily the best on the team, even better than Rutschman which is saying a lot.

I'm sure he'll come around but I agree that a demotion could be in the works (brace yourself, @Sports Guy) if he's not turned things around by the end of May.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Love the patience at the plate.  It's easily the best on the team, even better than Rutschman which is saying a lot.

I'm sure he'll come around but I agree that a demotion could be in the works (brace yourself, @Sports Guy) if he's not turned things around by the end of May.

The end of May is a LONG time away.  By the way, Gunnar has had other stretches where he walked a lot but wasn’t hitting when he was in the minors.  I feel pretty confident that he’ll come around.   

[Moose Milligan]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The end of May is a LONG time away.  By the way, Gunnar has had other stretches where he walked a lot but wasn’t hitting when he was in the minors.  I feel pretty confident that he’ll come around.   

It'll be here before we know it.

[RVAOsFan]

Would love to see them just give the kid a week straight of starts at 3B and see what happens.  Best prospect in baseball and the kid shows up everyday doesn't know if he will be playing 3B, SS, 2B, DH, bench and we are talking about demotion.  I know we are now in a win mode not development mode but you only get so many "#1 Prospects" lets try not to blow it.

[Sports Guy]

He looks fine at the plate and even though he isn’t hitting lefties yet, he doesn’t look overmatched. He is hanging in there well.

He has a 214 BABiP despite an exit velo at 85%.

Last thing I’m worried about is him. 

Not really worried about anything right now, since it’s all of 11 games into the season.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Would love to see them just give the kid a week straight of starts at 3B and see what happens.  Best prospect in baseball and the kid shows up everyday doesn't know if he will be playing 3B, SS, 2B, DH, bench and we are talking about demotion.  I know we are now in a win mode not development mode but you only get so many "#1 Prospects" lets try not to blow it.

“We” aren’t talking about demotion. The team isn’t talking about demotion. Irrational posters are talking about it. 
 

Those are way different things.

[sevastras]

He isn’t getting demoted. He is off to a slow start and you can see he is pressing right now. A couple breaks and his confidence will go up and he will get locked in. I’m not worried about him at all. There is no development left for him in the minors. 

[Otter]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

He's seeing the ball well and is not afraid to close pitches for balls, but he's really struggling against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. It's a strange dynamic that he seems to be able to judge the strike zone but can not connect against anything that's not a fastball. 

He's also not off to a good start defensively. Part of that could be inconsistent work, but I've always been worried that the Orioles focus on versatility in the minors would affect their minor leaguers ability to be very good in one particular position. We see the tools that Gunnar has, but even in the minors he was error prone at times. 

I think we're seeing that with most of the guys they brought up defensively and we see it in the minors. When players are playing positional roulette every game, it makes me wonder how do you expect them to be at their best when they've given up development time by playing a bunch of positions.

In my mind you need to decide where a guy is going to play at the major league level and play him there at least 80% of the time. 

I think he's going to get a pretty long leash, but if he's still struggling by May, I could see them sending him back to AAA for more development. 

I've also worried about the organization's over emphasis on versatility in position player prospects.  Versatility is good to a degree, but having young top prospects splitting time between many positions makes it really hard for them to master any one position.  They may be passable at many positions, but not great at any one.  For the most part, I like the new emphasis on data/analytics brought by Elias/Sig.  However, I think this is one area where perhaps all these number guys who never played the game at a high level don't understand how many reps it takes to get good at a particular position (especially infield positions).  I really hope they don't do this with Holliday, and just let him play SS every day.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Otter said:

I've also worried about the organization's over emphasis on versatility in position player prospects.  Versatility is good to a degree, but having young top prospects splitting time between many positions makes it really hard for them to master any one position.  They may be passable at many positions, but not great at any one.  For the most part, I like the new emphasis on data/analytics brought by Elias/Sig.  However, I think this is one area where perhaps all these number guys who never played the game at a high level don't understand how many reps it takes to get good at a particular position (especially infield positions).  I really hope they don't do this with Holliday, and just let him play SS every day.

I do wonder about this. How many teams are doing this?  
 

I think the Os long term plan is obvious and that is Holliday at SS and Gunnar at third.  They aren’t going to trade either player and neither looks like they are going to fall on their face.

So, why move Gunnar around unless you have to? 3rd is his position for the long term, let him learn it, play it consistently and get as good as anyone over there.

Of course, it’s speculation from us that moving him back and forth is an issue. Maybe it’s not but common sense says that it certainly could be a problem and make it harder to learn a position that he has yet to play consistently in his pro career.

Im at the point (well I have been there) where this team needs to start making moves. 
 

We can sit here and say “it’s a good problem to have” and “depth is great” but that’s all cliche and in some ways, it’s not true.

We need to have some more defined roles for guys and we need to trade from the excess and bring in some real pitching.  
 

Elias has to show us he can build a ML team capable of winning year in and year out. He has shown us he can build a farm system that can give you the foundation for winning. That is without question. But that doesn’t put trophies in the case.