Gunnar Henderson 2023

[Orioles Jim]

Might be starting to break out of it (with a mix of bad luck)?

Over the last 7 days, his SLG% is finally above 400 (.429 as highlithed).

The interesting part is that the walks are still there (yeah, I know SSS) with an almost 100 point difference between OBP and BA but that his BABIP is also .200 (which hell, even poor Mountcastle has a 258 BABIP).

If the BABIP normalizes and he keeps swinging at the rate that he seemingly (finally) is, then we might start to see "it".

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

He’s hurting his trade value

I disagree. Nobody is going to be that scared off by the struggles of a 21 year old in his first month of his first big league season. He was still #1 ranked prospect in all of baseball. The talent is there and everyone knows that. He can still be the headline piece for ANY available player in the game.

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I disagree. Nobody is going to be that scared off by the struggles of a 21 year old in his first month of his first big league season. He was still #1 ranked prospect in all of baseball. The talent is there and everyone knows that. He can still be the headline piece for ANY available player in the game.

Yes! Just glad you didn't say he was untouchable.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, jdwilde1 said:

This is what I think happens.  The fact that he’s drawing walks at his current rate despite his age and hitting struggles is very impressive.  And once he starts producing the line-up will really have some length. It’s going to be a really fun summer as long as we can get some adequate starting pitching.

I love the walks, but in an of themselves they don't cancel out the high strikes and very low slugging. When you combine that with the bad defense, he really is at negative value right now.

He has to pick it up and I believe in his talent so I believe that he will and it is only a matter of time. But in no way is he contributing with the walks ALONE. Every other area of his game has been a negative thus far this season. Even the base running hasn't been good.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, HandsomeQuack said:

Looking at his stats re: swing decisions, he only swings at 19.8% of pitches outside the zone (league average 31.5%), but when he does swing on those pitches he only makes contact 39.5% of the time (league average 62.2%). In his time in the bigs last year, he made contact on 60.8% of outside-the-zone swings.

Additionally, the first pitch of his PAs is a strike 67.4% of the time (league average 60.5%). I wonder how much of that is the book being out on him that he won't swing, and as a result he falls behind 0-1 a lot.

It's been such a weird start for him. With a little less swing-and-miss he could be in the .250/.400/.500 neighborhood. But he takes so many pitches and he can't hit with 2 strikes.

Great post.  I think that's very likely part of what's going on.  Ps don't have to be as precise with the first pitch and they are getting ahead 0-1.  Might be time for Gunnar to do some extra advanced scouting work and find a couple guys to ambush.  

[interloper]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

One month in and Gunnar is sort of refusing to bust out.

.189/.348./.311/.659 with only 5 XBH.

Let's compare to another guy who struggled in his rookie season, Nick Markakis.

Markakis' April 2006: .182/.270/.288/.558. That's in 18 games to Gunnar's 23, and of course doesn't factor in Gunnar's 34 games last year. 

Markakis May '06: .667
June: .803
July: .999
August: 1.140

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Yes! Just glad you didn't say he was untouchable.

Why would he be untouchable. What is he that Holiday isn't? As was mentioned, we have enough infield depth to cover for his loss (though no one has his ceiling at 3B). Plus we are winning like crazy and he really isn't doing anything to contribute to that.

Now don't get me wrong, I don't WANT to trade him and I believe in his talent. But if we were to trade him for a tip of the rotation starter, we simple slot Urias over to 3B until Mayo is ready. And we still have Holiday as our left side jewel to take over for Mateo when it is time. Plus if Mateo has continued to produce by that point (maybe not at this MVP level but maybe at an all-star level) we can then flip Mateo and recoup some of the prospect loss, and not skip a beat with Holiday taking over.

[DirtyBird]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Why would he be untouchable. What is he that Holiday isn't? As was mentioned, we have enough infield depth to cover for his loss (though no one has his ceiling at 3B). Plus we are winning like crazy and he really isn't doing anything to contribute to that.

Now don't get me wrong, I don't WANT to trade him and I believe in his talent. But if we were to trade him for a tip of the rotation starter, we simple slot Urias over to 3B until Mayo is ready. And we still have Holiday as our left side jewel to take over for Mateo when it is time. Plus if Mateo has continued to produce by that point (maybe not at this MVP level but maybe at an all-star level) we can then flip Mateo and recoup some of the prospect loss, and not skip a beat with Holiday taking over.

This is all correct, yet most say Gunnar is untouchable and expect a top of rotation starter using a package of our second and third tier prospects.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

This is all correct, yet most say Gunnar is untouchable and expect a top of rotation starter using a package of our second and third tier prospects.

IMO a lot of posters and fans of the team in general are having hard time making the switch from where we WERE as opposed to where we ARE. I believe that is why you here a lot of overvaluing prospects and underselling our chances this season and going forward. Many don't agree with me, but for me it appears that our opportunity is here starting now and it may have come quicker than even Elias expected. But we don't need to waste this season by not trying to maximize our chances for October success which must come in the form of top starting rotation talent.

Plus a lot of fans have bought in to what the Angelos empire is selling, that we are a poor team and we can't spend ANY money ever. So we need to horde every single prospect to be successful. But in the real world, it takes giving up talent to get real talent. And pitching talent is what we need.

And to this notion that one player (pick any available player in the game) will cost us 'half the farm', is very fear-based and it short sells HOW MUCH we truly have. We are the MOST talent rich org in the game of baseball. We have a glutton of talent, so much so, that no 1 trade can take away from our future. We have duplicates for everyone not named Adley and Grayson.

[HandsomeQuack]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Plus a lot of fans have bought in to what the Angelos empire is selling, that we are a poor team and we can't spend ANY money ever. So we need to horde every single prospect to be successful. But in the real world, it takes giving up talent to get real talent. And pitching talent is what we need.

I agree with your point regarding the depth of the organization, but until there is evidence to the contrary, evaluations of possible trades should operate on the assumption that no one is going to get a lucrative extension. I would *love* to be proven wrong, but it's hard to imagine the team trading for Cease or Burnes and then immediately extending them. Whether a lack of spending is a "can't" or a "won't" is largely irrelevant.

[Bemorewins]

19 minutes ago, HandsomeQuack said:

I agree with your point regarding the depth of the organization, but until there is evidence to the contrary, evaluations of possible trades should operate on the assumption that no one is going to get a lucrative extension. I would *love* to be proven wrong, but it's hard to imagine the team trading for Cease or Burnes and then immediately extending them. Whether a lack of spending is a "can't" or a "won't" is largely irrelevant.

You are getting 3 post season runs with Cease if you don't extend. And Alcantara is signed at a very reasonable contract through 27'. I don't think that Burnes is or will be available. MIL is looking to contend this year and has stated that if they do, they are going to hold on to the guys and try to win.

[interloper]

18 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You are getting 3 post season runs with Cease if you don't extend. And Alcantara is signed at a very reasonable contract through 27'. I don't think that Burnes is or will be available. MIL is looking to contend this year and has stated that if they do, they are going to hold on to the guys and try to win.

All due respect, it feels like you're talking about Cease in like 3 different threads lol. 

[Bemorewins]

53 minutes ago, interloper said:

All due respect, it feels like you're talking about Cease in like 3 different threads lol. 

That is true and I apologize. But I am not stuck on Cease the player. It doesn't have to be him. But I am all the way in on the idea that we have a great opportunity this season. And we are going to need to acquire top pitching talent to help us be successful in the post season. Sorry if it seemed like I have a Cease obsession. I'm just obsessed with the team doing all that it can to put itself in the best position to succeed and compete legitimately in the Fall. 

[Sports Guy]

[NCRaven]

SG, where is this power ranking from?  It's pure click bait, of course, but I'd like to know the source.