Gunnar Henderson 2023

[Idaho_OriolesFan]

Here's what I found awesome about Gunnars 3 run HR yesterday.. that LA pitcher, Reyes, IS a good pitcher BUT is kind of a one-trick pony. Let me explain: Near every pitch Reyes threw, was over 90mph.. sinker, slider, whatever he was throwing and fairly accurate. He obviously made it personal in the sense that he was working the batters hard.. i cant remember the name of the batter who was 1 or 2 before Henderson, but when Reyes struck him-out, there was definitely some interaction.. the batter gave him a bit of the "f*** that guy* look, and Reyes, made a chopping motion.

NOW.. back to Henderson. When he stood at the plate, Reyes tried to do the same thing and intimidate him with hard, fast, and surprisingly accurate throws. Henderson's too good though. He demolished that pitch and broke Reyes who was then pulled out immediately. Hahaha.. it was like a giant battle of who's got the bigger "base"balls and Henderson was like.. yeah.. no.  Love this team

[connja]

For those who say Gunner is hands down ROY, his stats are almost identical to Jung in more games.  What sets him apart and what is driving the higher WAR? 

[Aristotelian]

Would Wander Franco's extension be a reasonable comp?

[Spy Fox]

18 minutes ago, connja said:

For those who say Gunner is hands down ROY, his stats are almost identical to Jung in more games.  What sets him apart and what is driving the higher WAR? 

For WAR, I'd guess the biggest factor is the 64 games played, 49 games started, at SS. SS is valued higher than 3b by both versions of WAR, so he's getting extra credit for the time spent there. 

In real baseball another thing setting Gunnar apart is that he's an excellent baserunner and Jung is a weak baserunner. 

[Idaho_OriolesFan]

THAT CATCH AND THROW!!!!

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, connja said:

For those who say Gunner is hands down ROY, his stats are almost identical to Jung in more games.  What sets him apart and what is driving the higher WAR? 

Jung is injured and out for the year.  Gunnar will continue to accumulate stats.  Moreover, Gunnar is arguably the best player on the best team in the AL. In 1982, Kent Hrbek’s offensive year was arguably better than Cal’s -848 OPS vs 792 OPS.   Cal was younger, played a premium position, and played for a better team.  History looked kindly on the decision of the voters. 

[Malike]

 

[Hallas]

2 hours ago, connja said:

For those who say Gunner is hands down ROY, his stats are almost identical to Jung in more games.  What sets him apart and what is driving the higher WAR? 

It's a lot of small differences at the margins that, when added together, give you the 0.7 WAR.  Gunnar is 5 runs better as a baserunner.  Jung plays in Texas so park effects ding him a little bit because it's a better place to hit than Camden.  And Gunnar has 60 more plate appearances to accumulate value.  Fangraphs actually gives Jung an edge defensively even with the smaller positional adjustment at 3rd.

 

For whatever reason, DRS *loves* Gunnar's defense, so his WAR on bbref is a bit inflated because of that.  That number doesn't pass the sniff test for me.

[baltfan]

57 minutes ago, Hallas said:

It's a lot of small differences at the margins that, when added together, give you the 0.7 WAR.  Gunnar is 5 runs better as a baserunner.  Jung plays in Texas so park effects ding him a little bit because it's a better place to hit than Camden.  And Gunnar has 60 more plate appearances to accumulate value.  Fangraphs actually gives Jung an edge defensively even with the smaller positional adjustment at 3rd.

 

For whatever reason, DRS *loves* Gunnar's defense, so his WAR on bbref is a bit inflated because of that.  That number doesn't pass the sniff test for me.

Surprised you say that. His OAA seems very inaccurate to me.  Eye test tells me he is at least in the top 1/3 of fielders at his positions.  And isn’t “loves” a bit of an exaggeration?  If so then they really love Volpe who the times I have seen him doesn’t appear that special and has a noodle arm. 

Edited September 6, 2023 by baltfan

[Hallas]

11 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Surprised you say that. His OAA seems very inaccurate to me.  Eye test tells me he is at least in the top 1/3 of fielders at his positions.  And isn’t “loves” a bit of an exaggeration?  If so then they really love Volpe who the times I have seen him doesn’t appear that special and has a noodle arm. 

I don't think it's an exaggeration at all to say DRS loves his defense.  He's +9 by DRS in 50 games' worth of innings at short, and his DRS/yr is +24.  Volpe is at +15, and his DRS/yr is +16.  They think Gunnar would outplay Volpe by nearly a full win if he kept this up over a full season at short.

 

He feels like an average-ish defender to me, but I could be convinced he's slightly above average.  I'm dinging him for his early-season throwing troubles, even though they haven't cropped up recently.

 

There's no shame in being an average-ish defender at short, especially if you're OPSing .815 in a pitcher's park.

[baltfan]

6 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I don't think it's an exaggeration at all to say DRS loves his defense.  He's +9 by DRS in 50 games' worth of innings at short, and his DRS/yr is +24.  Volpe is at +15, and his DRS/yr is +16.  They think Gunnar would outplay Volpe by nearly a full win if he kept this up over a full season at short.

 

He feels like an average-ish defender to me, but I could be convinced he's slightly above average.  I'm dinging him for his early-season throwing troubles, even though they haven't cropped up recently.

 

There's no shame in being an average-ish defender at short, especially if you're OPSing .815 in a pitcher's park.

I think you are selling him a bit short. The one clear weakness I have seen though has been on going back on balls at SS. He doesn’t seem to get a good jump.  But all of this is hard to know since he moves around a fair amount.  I guess we will see.  Look at the huge improvement Witt Jr made. 

[Sports Guy]

I think he’s better than an average SS but I’m not convinced that he’s some all world, elite SS which is the level of defense some here lead you to believe he is at. He still may get better over there but defense tends to peak early and for a bigger guy, I’m not convinced that third isn’t his best position long term.

That said, his athleticism and his arm Are off the charts, so he can keep getting better over there if they decide to keep him there.

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Would Wander Franco's extension be a reasonable comp?

No. He’s not signing that deal.

The best we can hope for an extension until he is 29 or 30 years old..so a 7-8 year deal.

Nothing wrong with that. I would be very happy.

He is going to make in the area of 45-50M, if things go well, the next 5 years. I think a 2 year extension on that is very possible. I think 3 years is possible but not sure I would call it likely.

I would be surprised if he turned down a 7/110ish type extension right now.

[joelala]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No. He’s not signing that deal.

The best we can hope for an extension until he is 29 or 30 years old..so a 7-8 year deal.

Nothing wrong with that. I would be very happy.

He is going to make in the area of 45-50M, if things go well, the next 5 years. I think a 2 year extension on that is very possible. I think 3 years is possible but not sure I would call it likely.

I would be surprised if he turned down a 7/110ish type extension right now.

7/150 I’d think would be the starting number to get his team to even answer the call, and I don’t think we’ll do it. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, joelala said:

7/150 I’d think would be the starting number to get his team to even answer the call, and I don’t think we’ll do it. 

So a 2/100 extension?  No way.