TT: It's time to bring up Colton Cowser

[NCRaven]

Would love to see Cowser with the big team.  But, Elias seems to like matching up his call ups.  With Detroit sending three lefties to the mounder over the next three games, we almost certainly won't see Cowser before next week, anyway.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Would love to see Cowser with the big team.  But, Elias seems to like matching up his call ups.  With Detroit sending three lefties to the mounder over the next three games, we almost certainly won't see Cowser before next week, anyway.

Agreed. although Cowser has hit lefties in a SSS this year, historically he's struggled against them. The only way he comes up in my mind over the next series is if they make the decision to IL Hays. 

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Why would Angelos "impose" Adam Frazier on Elias.  I doubt Angelos even knew who Adam Frazier is or was.  If he gave Elias a budget and said stay within this amount (something virtually every business owner does), then it was Elias who made the decision not ownership.  Why Frazier?  I'm sure Elias had a reason, but I could only guess while admitting that I wouldn't have done it.

I don't think for one second that the Evil Angelos Empire told Elias to sign Frazier. I think that was a mistake all on Elias and probably Sig, counting on his contact skills becoming more valuable in an environment where ground balls could become singles again.

However, I believe that the Evil Angelos Empire will do its best to be as cheap as possible with said budget. And do all it can to sabotage any success or aspirations for building a legitimate championship contender. We are going to have to win in spite of Angelos, not because. With the Washington Commanders up for new ownership, Angelos is now the unquestioned "worst owner" in all of North American professional sports.

[Bemorewins]

23 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Would love to see Cowser with the big team.  But, Elias seems to like matching up his call ups.  With Detroit sending three lefties to the mounder over the next three games, we almost certainly won't see Cowser before next week, anyway.

My sincere hope is that we are not going to waste all of our prospects by using them in a platoon fashion. You don't need top 100 rated guys to just be relegated for platoon roles.

[NCRaven]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

My sincere hope is that we are not going to waste all of our prospects by using them in a platoon fashion. You don't need top 100 rated guys to just be relegated for platoon roles.

I'm not talking about platooning him.  I just think that Elias times promotions for when he thinks players can have success.  Cowser should be a starter when is promoted and I doubt that Elias promotes him with three left handed pitchers starting in what would be his first three big league games.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I'm not talking about platooning him.  I just think that Elias times promotions for when he thinks players can have success.  Cowser should be a starter when is promoted and I doubt that Elias promotes him with three left handed pitchers starting in what would be his first three big league games.

Understood.

[btdart20]

36 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Angelos is now the unquestioned "worst owner" in all of North American professional sports.

John Fisher to John Angelos:  "Hold my beer."

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

John Fisher to John Angelos:  "Hold my beer."

Oh wow... we're #2 not #1! The fact that we are in the conversation is very sad in and of itself.

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Oh wow... we're #2 not #1! The fact that we are in the conversation is very sad in and of itself.

To flip the script, it wasn't long ago that Jim Crane considered "the worst" as well.  Same with the Rickett family.  They aren't considered evil now.

How much blame does Mike Ilitch get for Detroit's current state of affairs?  Or the Montfort family in Colorado?  

The hyperbole distracts from your real points.

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

To flip the script, it wasn't long ago that Jim Crane considered "the worst" as well.  Same with the Rickett family.  They aren't considered evil now.

How much blame does Mike Ilitch get for Detroit's current state of affairs?  Or the Montfort family in Colorado?  

The hyperbole distracts from your real points.

Point taken. But that said, our ownership is awful.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I'm not talking about platooning him.  I just think that Elias times promotions for when he thinks players can have success.  Cowser should be a starter when is promoted and I doubt that Elias promotes him with three left handed pitchers starting in what would be his first three big league games.

Also notice that the players that have come up have been elite defenders. Adley, Gunnar, Ortiz. Cowser can be that in LF/RF but not until Super two passes in mid June. Defense is what has held back Westburg and Stowers.

We might have the best defense in MLB when Cowser comes up. 

[Flash- bd]

21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh I love that argument. 

The Elias has to be smarter than any of us fans so whatever choice they make has to be the right one. 

Hadn't heard that one in ages.

How dare we question any decision our betters make!

No way he could have any biases that could impact his decision making. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying one can't question Elias' decision making at times, what I am saying is that the amount of criticism and skepticism is quite disproportionate to the results his methods are producing, and that it is a bit daft to go on and on about a point (your age point) which Elias is 100% aware of and accounted for in his models, in no doubt a much more sophisticated fashion. 

To translate a quote, I think from Nassim Taleb, that a friend passed on to me the other night: "The utility of a model doesn't depend on the realism of the hypothetical situations that might determine its behavior (given that no one can know all of them with certainty), but rather upon the realism of the pattern of behavior of its responses."

In short, what I'm getting at is that I am not so concerned with the processes that Elias' model are determining as much as I am the results. And the latter is impossible to argue with at this stage, which suggests to me that a lot less critique / skepticism from your end would be more proportionate. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Flash- bd

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Flash- bd said:

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying one can't question Elias' decision making at times, what I am saying is that the amount of criticism and skepticism is quite disproportionate to the results his methods are producing, and that it is a bit daft to go on and on about a point (your age point) which Elias is 100% aware of and accounted for in his models, in no doubt a much more sophisticated fashion. 

To translate a quote, I think from Nassim Taleb, that a friend passed on to me the other night: "The utility of a model doesn't depend on the realism of the hypothetical situations that might determine its behavior (given that no one can know all of them with certainty), but rather upon the realism of the pattern of behavior of its responses."

In short, what I'm getting at is that I am not so concerned with the processes that Elias' model are determining as much as I am the results. And the latter is impossible to argue with at this stage, which suggests to me that a lot less critique / skepticism from your end would be more proportionate. 

If you discount a concern with processes, then posters on fan-based message boards have little reason to participate.  And if your method is to argue from results, then what's the purpose of modeling of any kind?  I too am quite happy with the results Elias and Medjal (I suspect Sig is familiar with Taleb's work although I don't see how it could apply to individual personnel decisions) have achieved, but no model from anyone is going to convince this crowd to quit with the skepticism and that makes it a much more interesting place to be.  More educative too.

[Flash- bd]

7 minutes ago, 24fps said:

If you discount a concern with processes, then posters on fan-based message boards have little reason to participate.  And if your method is to argue from results, then what's the purpose of modeling of any kind? 

That's not a really fair characterization of what I've put.

I'm not discounting processes, I'm saying that the results the processes bring about are giving us more important information.

The second sentence is also a mischaracterization of the quote I've put. The quote is certainly not arguing against modeling, it is reminding us of what is most important in creating a good model. 

[24fps]

50 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

That's not a really fair characterization of what I've put.

I'm not discounting processes, I'm saying that the results the processes bring about are giving us more important information.

The second sentence is also a mischaracterization of the quote I've put. The quote is certainly not arguing against modeling, it is reminding us of what is most important in creating a good model. 

Apologies if I mischaracterized anything you wrote, but as near as I can tell from the quote you used is that Taleb (or whomever) is arguing that garbage in does not equal garbage out as long as the results adhere to a certain formal consistency.  Maybe I have it wrong, but such are the pitfalls of excessively complex academic writing.  And how does this esoteric notion apply to building a successful baseball organization anyway?

Your post is more understandable if I ignore the quote altogether and focus on the proposition that posters on a message board should resist the impulse to weigh in before an issue is ripe for discussion - which is what I did.  That's not likely; we're the rabble and many of us pay for the privilege.  Personally, I'm very interested in process and we're lucky that Elias and his organization are tuned is as they are.  Clearly they have a plan and I want to try to understand what it is even if they aren't going to come right and say it.