TT: It's time to bring up Colton Cowser

[Sports Guy]

Just now, btdart20 said:

That's a legit concern.  MLB pitchers will attack that.  Where are you finding that type of breakdown of pitches seen?

Under Cowser’s profile:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, again, you're taking ABs from Hays, Santander, and McKenna to give to Cowser.  I'm not ready to do that.

25% of the team DH ABs, if not more, are Adley's.   When Urias is healthy, some of those will go to him and Gunnar.  They like McCann to get some against lefties, and while that was not a popular move, he has shown himself well in those opportunities.

If Hays becomes your primary RF, then Santander becomes a PT DH.

I definitely don't want to see Hays or Santander getting ABs reduced from them. They have been some of the better hitters on the team this year.

However, I could care less about taking ABs away from McKenna. IMO he is not a difference maker, nor somebody who I feel should be of any serious priority to find playing time for. He's a decent backup and that's about it.

You do raise a good point about Urias, when he returns, and  a good point overall. We simply have too many position players to find places for when you include the 3 AAA who are knocking on the door. I don't think that this problem can be solved until the deadline though. So, unfortunately, Cowser, Westburg, and Ortiz may have to wait it out, until July. Or at least some combination of them. And even then, it might be possible that what is best for the Orioles is that some/all of them may get moved? 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, again, you're taking ABs from Hays, Santander, and McKenna to give to Cowser.  I'm not ready to do that.

25% of the team DH ABs, if not more, are Adley's.   When Urias is healthy, some of those will go to him and Gunnar.  They like McCann to get some against lefties, and while that was not a popular move, he has shown himself well in those opportunities.

If Hays becomes your primary RF, then Santander becomes a PT DH.

That percentage for Adley should come down though. That means he basically DH’s 40 games. That’s too many. That has him playing 155 or more games.

Adley should DH 30 games at most.

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I saw a stat on Twitter today that Cowser has a 44% whiff rate on breaking pitches.  I’m not sure if that has anything to do with keeping him down but it’s a good bet it is a reason.

Interesting.  It’s stuff like this that we don’t always know that may lead to a lot of decisions we might not agree with because we don’t have the same information.  

[Pickles]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

I definitely don't want to see Hays or Santander getting ABs reduced from them. They have been some of the better hitters on the team this year.

However, I could care less about taking ABs away from McKenna. IMO he is not a difference maker, nor somebody who I feel should be of any serious priority to find playing time for. He's a decent backup and that's about it.

You do raise a good point about Urias, when he returns, and  a good point overall. We simply have too many position players to find places for when you include the 3 AAA who are knocking on the door. I don't think that this problem can be solved until the deadline though. So, unfortunately, Cowser, Westburg, and Ortiz may have to wait it out, until July. Or at least some combination of them. And even then, it might be possible that what is best for the Orioles is that some/all of them may get moved? 

I'd take ABs away from McKenna for Cowser too if it made sense but it doesn't because McKenna's ABs come mostly against lefties and that's where I'd hide Cowser.

This is one of those good problems to have.  IMO, people criticizing the FO for this state of affairs have it completely backwards; they should be praised for it.

I doubt this goes on for long, as between injuries and performance, this will likely resolve itself.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Interesting.  It’s stuff like this that we don’t always know that may lead to a lot of decisions we might not agree with because we don’t have the same information.  

No question. Now, is that the reason he is staying down?  Who knows.

Obviously, teams will try to exploit that.

Otoh, what is the damage right on the other 56% and what is he doing on everything else?  Obviously, he’s doing something right down there.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That percentage for Adley should come down though. That means he basically DH’s 40 games. That’s too many. That has him playing 155 or more games.

Adley should DH 30 games at most.

You're still only talking about a handful of games a month.  That's not enough to justify dramatically remaking the rotation, which is what a Cowser call up would require.

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Under Cowser’s profile:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

Thanks.  And dang...  I was hoping there was some full data set for AAA or across the MiLB!

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

I'd take ABs away from McKenna for Cowser too if it made sense but it doesn't because McKenna's ABs come mostly against lefties and that's where I'd hide Cowser.

This is one of those good problems to have.  IMO, people criticizing the FO for this state of affairs have it completely backwards; they should be praised for it.

I doubt this goes on for long, as between injuries and performance, this will likely resolve itself.

I agree with most of what you are saying. But I would add trade(s) as a factor in the highlighted portion of your post. IMO that is the only way to solve the "talent equation" longterm. We simply have too much positional talent and not enough high end position talent. Seems like a simple fix, would be an eventual trade.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

You're still only talking about a handful of games a month.  That's not enough to justify dramatically remaking the rotation, which is what a Cowser call up would require.

Since he likely makes the team better, you do it. 
 

Same with Westburg. Get Frazier out of the lineup. As Tony mentioned the other day, move Frazier to the Vavra role. That’s fine. You don’t have to cut him. (You can but you don’t have to) but he should have most of playing time taken away.

[Pickles]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

I agree with most of what you are saying. But I would add trade(s) as a factor in the highlighted portion of your post. IMO that is the only way to solve the "talent equation" longterm. We simply have too much positional talent and not enough high end position talent. Seems like a simple fix, would be an eventual trade.

This is true as well.  I could see a fairly major trade in July.  Now, will they ship out the young vets or the prospects, is the question.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Since he likely makes the team better, you do it. 
 

Same with Westburg. Get Frazier out of the lineup. As Tony mentioned the other day, move Frazier to the Vavra role. That’s fine. You don’t have to cut him. (You can but you don’t have to) but he should have most of playing time taken away.

It makes the team better to have Cowser take the Vavra role.  But is that best for Cowser?  There's still a balancing act.  Cowser needs to play every day.  A part time role in the MLs is not in his best interest right now imo.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Under Cowser’s profile:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

Looks to me like that 44% whiff rate on breaking stuff may relate to 2022, not 2023, the way it is phrased.  But I can’t say for sure.  Either way, this is likely something the O’s are playing close attention to.  

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You're still only talking about a handful of games a month.  That's not enough to justify dramatically remaking the rotation, which is what a Cowser call up would require.

Once they feel comfortable with Gunnar, I could see Cowser getting the strong side of a split pretty easily.  Stowers/Vavra/O'Hearn/Frazier and maybe even Mateo, Hays, and Adley could be more strategically sit without compromising (and hopefully improving) projected run differentials per game.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Thanks.  And dang...  I was hoping there was some full data set for AAA or across the MiLB!

I must admit, I would love to know where they get that data.

When I asked a stat guy on Twitter a few weeks back about it and he said he got it from…

Now, I’m not sure if that account is where MLB got their info from or not but somewhere, whether it be a place like Elias or SIS or statcast or whoever, someone is tracking this info.